Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 91% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 90%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.24

Smart Money Signal

40 of 44 top traders (91%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up40 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares8,167

Combined PnL+$2.3K

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,442

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Up — 91%Down — 9%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.1K	+$40.28	55% 414-341 (755)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$8.1K	+$4.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.1K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$3.25	42% 264-364 (628)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$4.9K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
0X 0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723	Upavg 69.9¢	$2.0K	$2.9K	+$861.74	— 4-8 (12)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$2	51% 3392-3202 (6594)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$472.5	—	-$473
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$624.45	$630.76	+$6.31	98% 3730-79 (3809)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$622.62	$603	-$19.62	47% 1012-1142 (2154)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.6¢	$323.08	$603	+$279.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.4¢	$299.54	—	-$299.54
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 52.4¢	$311.45	$594.67	+$283.22	50% 2267-2294 (4561)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 60.2¢	$459.56	$523.15	+$63.59	32% 684-1451 (2135)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.2¢	$314.78	$523.15	+$208.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.5¢	$144.78	—	-$144.78
BO bosona	Upavg 52.4¢	$356.64	$680.96	+$324.31	51% 4658-4490 (9148)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$548.74	$497.64	+$1.17	54% 3514-2992 (6506)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$250.7	$497.64	+$250.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.8¢	$244.58	—	-$249.32
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$320.08	$343.74	+$23.66	46% 1049-1224 (2273)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$179.3	$343.74	+$164.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.4¢	$140.78	—	-$140.78
AL almach	Upavg 48.9¢	$276.69	$560.1	+$283.41	51% 1414-1359 (2773)
MO mo-money	Upavg 50¢	$340.43	$560.42	+$285.26	50% 1405-1380 (2785)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 67.4¢	$469.37	$378.99	-$84.37	59% 1016-699 (1715)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$352.43	$283.54	-$68.88	44% 727-924 (1651)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$199.19	$283.54	+$84.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.8¢	$153.24	—	-$153.24
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 44.1¢	$339.51	$265.13	-$74.38	51% 5011-4721 (9732)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.2¢	$167.53	$265.13	+$97.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$171.97	—	-$171.97
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 61.6¢	$235.25	$250	+$14.75	55% 4411-3594 (8005)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.6¢	$154.08	$250	+$95.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.1¢	$81.17	—	-$81.17
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 75¢	$257.77	$241.6	-$16.07	52% 2196-2051 (4247)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100	Upavg 60.1¢	$212.63	$209.62	-$3.01	51% 777-749 (1526)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.1¢	$126.06	$209.62	+$83.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$86.57	—	-$86.57
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 64¢	$176.24	$214.07	+$37.83	50% 4423-4495 (8918)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$174.69	$194.06	+$19.37	52% 352-331 (683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.5¢	$111.63	$194.06	+$82.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.5¢	$63.06	—	-$63.06
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 38.5¢	$209.62	$157.92	-$51.7	46% 778-912 (1690)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$96.32	$157.92	+$61.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.5¢	$113.3	—	-$113.3
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 66.6¢	$115.56	$173.63	+$58.08	50% 758-762 (1520)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$117.05	$99.8	-$17.25	50% 752-738 (1490)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.4¢	$64.25	$99.8	+$35.56
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.1¢	$52.8	—	-$52.8
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 66.1¢	$92.1	$123.53	+$31.43	52% 861-795 (1656)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,757

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$40.28

Record

55%

414-341 (755)

Both legs:

Up$4,04950¢+$4.1K

Down$3,966.2850¢$-4.1K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$3.25

Record

42%

264-364 (628)

Both legs:

Up$2,472.550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,497.550¢$-2.5K

0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$861.74

Record

—

4-8 (12)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

3392-3202 (6594)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$472.550¢-$473

hoodquant

Invested

$624.45

Value

$630.76

PnL

+$6.31

Record

98%

3730-79 (3809)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$622.62

Value

$603

PnL

-$19.62

Record

47%

1012-1142 (2154)

Both legs:

Up$323.0853.6¢+$279.92

Down$299.5433.4¢-$299.54

uninformedfloww

Invested

$311.45

Value

$594.67

PnL

+$283.22

Record

50%

2267-2294 (4561)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$459.56

Value

$523.15

PnL

+$63.59

Record

32%

684-1451 (2135)

Both legs:

Up$314.7860.2¢+$208.37

Down$144.7829.5¢-$144.78

bosona

Invested

$356.64

Value

$680.96

PnL

+$324.31

Record

51%

4658-4490 (9148)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$548.74

Value

$497.64

PnL

+$1.17

Record

54%

3514-2992 (6506)

Both legs:

Up$250.750.4¢+$250.49

Down$244.5847.8¢-$249.32

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$320.08

Value

$343.74

PnL

+$23.66

Record

46%

1049-1224 (2273)

Both legs:

Up$179.352.2¢+$164.43

Down$140.7817.4¢-$140.78

almach

Invested

$276.69

Value

$560.1

PnL

+$283.41

Record

51%

1414-1359 (2773)

mo-money

Invested

$340.43

Value

$560.42

PnL

+$285.26

Record

50%

1405-1380 (2785)

Bonereaper

Invested

$469.37

Value

$378.99

PnL

-$84.37

Record

59%

1016-699 (1715)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$352.43

Value

$283.54

PnL

-$68.88

Record

44%

727-924 (1651)

Both legs:

Up$199.1970.3¢+$84.35

Down$153.2428.8¢-$153.24

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$339.51

Value

$265.13

PnL

-$74.38

Record

51%

5011-4721 (9732)

Both legs:

Up$167.5363.2¢+$97.6

Down$171.9744.1¢-$171.97

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$235.25

Value

$250

PnL

+$14.75

Record

55%

4411-3594 (8005)

Both legs:

Up$154.0861.6¢+$95.92

Down$81.1725.1¢-$81.17

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$257.77

Value

$241.6

PnL

-$16.07

Record

52%

2196-2051 (4247)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212ARB<$100

Invested

$212.63

Value

$209.62

PnL

-$3.01

Record

51%

777-749 (1526)

Both legs:

Up$126.0660.1¢+$83.56

Down$86.5729.9¢-$86.57

asdcaxz

Invested

$176.24

Value

$214.07

PnL

+$37.83

Record

50%

4423-4495 (8918)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$174.69

Value

$194.06

PnL

+$19.37

Record

52%

352-331 (683)

Both legs:

Up$111.6357.5¢+$82.43

Down$63.0631.5¢-$63.06

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$209.62

Value

$157.92

PnL

-$51.7

Record

46%

778-912 (1690)

Both legs:

Up$96.3261¢+$61.6

Down$113.338.5¢-$113.3

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$115.56

Value

$173.63

PnL

+$58.08

Record

50%

758-762 (1520)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$117.05

Value

$99.8

PnL

-$17.25

Record

50%

752-738 (1490)

Both legs:

Up$64.2564.4¢+$35.56

Down$52.837.1¢-$52.8

wzbbb

Invested

$92.1

Value

$123.53

PnL

+$31.43

Record

52%

861-795 (1656)

Smart Money Signal

40 of 44 top traders (91%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x1f03bada...2b4d92

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794685200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

0x2920d1023AD811c4321572CBD970398D9190f978-1775942251723

Up — $2.9K

+$861.74

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2

hoodquant

Up — $630.76

+$6.31

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$19.62

uninformedfloww

Up — $594.67

+$283.22

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$63.59

bosona

Up — $680.96

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded