Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

31 of 47 top Polymarket traders hold Up (66%) · Up at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 66%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.7K

Combined PnL

$220.2

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 47 top traders (66%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,303

Combined PnL-$88.61

Up31 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,695

Combined PnL+$308.82

Down — 34%Up — 66%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	$8.2K	-$2.28	54% 403-338 (741)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	$6.5K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$1.7K	$-2.5K
arcsine-barristerCTR	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$2.7	41% 252-362 (614)
SU suntori	Upavg 82.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$297.32	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$11.57	98% 3678-79 (3757)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$947.75	-$0.2	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$522.5	+$47.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$472.5	$425.25	-$47.7
BO bosona	Upavg 86.6¢	$597.41	$682.98	+$85.57	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66¢	$572.69	$599.38	+$26.69	60% 1012-687 (1699)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 73.5¢	$485.61	$546.43	+$60.82	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.1¢	$580.43	$498.53	+$6.98	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.9¢	$352.56	$349.62	+$1.72	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 28.9¢	$312.64	$252.6	-$60.04	44% 720-917 (1637)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.3¢	$148.77	$187.34	+$38.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$163.86	$65.26	-$98.61
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 92.5¢	$403.34	$243.19	-$160.15	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
MO mo-money	Upavg 97¢	$255.44	$234.47	-$20.97	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 73.4¢	$250.39	$228.25	-$22.15	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 72.3¢	$241.63	$224.8	-$16.83	46% 770-906 (1676)
ST stepahead	Upavg 78.1¢	$195.82	$184.27	-$11.54	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
OhioAIARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$145.28	$145.88	+$0.6	50% 745-731 (1476)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$91.78	$103.82	+$12.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 35¢	$53.5	$42.06	-$11.44
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 45¢	$217.11	$144.13	-$72.98	46% 1041-1218 (2259)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79¢	$82.11	$82.63	+$0.52
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$135	$61.5	-$73.5
FairValueMachine	Upavg 70.7¢	$120.42	$128.41	+$19.49	53% 4528-3944 (8472)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.4¢	$118.04	$106.46	-$11.58	32% 676-1445 (2121)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$120.72	$106.22	-$14.5	52% 855-787 (1642)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$61.11	$71.23	+$10.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.9¢	$59.61	$34.99	-$24.62
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 61.1¢	$98.32	$104.05	+$27.03	56% 267-213 (480)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100	Upavg 90.9¢	$70.24	$76.86	+$6.61	59% 954-664 (1618)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 99¢	$74.99	$75.71	+$0.72	50% 1894-1863 (3757)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$69.18	$65.9	-$3.28	50% 749-758 (1507)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,546

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$2.28

Record

54%

403-338 (741)

Both legs:

Up$4,101.6750¢+$2.5K

Down$4,185.8250¢$-2.5K

arcsine-barristerCTR

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$2.7

Record

41%

252-362 (614)

suntori

Invested

$1,443.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$297.32

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,040.94

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.57

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$947.75

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$47.5

Down$472.550¢-$47.7

bosona

Invested

$597.41

Value

$682.98

PnL

+$85.57

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

Bonereaper

Invested

$572.69

Value

$599.38

PnL

+$26.69

Record

60%

1012-687 (1699)

blue.birds

Invested

$485.61

Value

$546.43

PnL

+$60.82

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$580.43

Value

$498.53

PnL

+$6.98

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$352.56

Value

$349.62

PnL

+$1.72

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$312.64

Value

$252.6

PnL

-$60.04

Record

44%

720-917 (1637)

Both legs:

Up$148.7770.3¢+$38.57

Down$163.8628.9¢-$98.61

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$403.34

Value

$243.19

PnL

-$160.15

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

mo-money

Invested

$255.44

Value

$234.47

PnL

-$20.97

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

asdcaxz

Invested

$250.39

Value

$228.25

PnL

-$22.15

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

GoodFallen

Invested

$241.63

Value

$224.8

PnL

-$16.83

Record

46%

770-906 (1676)

stepahead

Invested

$195.82

Value

$184.27

PnL

-$11.54

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

OhioAIARB<$100

Invested

$145.28

Value

$145.88

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

745-731 (1476)

Both legs:

Up$91.7864.1¢+$12.04

Down$53.535¢-$11.44

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$217.11

Value

$144.13

PnL

-$72.98

Record

46%

1041-1218 (2259)

Both legs:

Up$82.1179¢+$0.52

Down$13545¢-$73.5

FairValueMachine

Invested

$120.42

Value

$128.41

PnL

+$19.49

Record

53%

4528-3944 (8472)

ply-pm0

Invested

$118.04

Value

$106.46

PnL

-$11.58

Record

32%

676-1445 (2121)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$120.72

Value

$106.22

PnL

-$14.5

Record

52%

855-787 (1642)

Both legs:

Up$61.1168.2¢+$10.12

Down$59.6134.9¢-$24.62

Alpharo28

Invested

$98.32

Value

$104.05

PnL

+$27.03

Record

56%

267-213 (480)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c<$100

Invested

$70.24

Value

$76.86

PnL

+$6.61

Record

59%

954-664 (1618)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$74.99

Value

$75.71

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

1894-1863 (3757)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335<$100

Invested

$69.18

Value

$65.9

PnL

-$3.28

Record

50%

749-758 (1507)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 47 top traders (66%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.