Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET

38 of 56 top Polymarket traders hold Down (68%) · Down at 100¢ · $35K held · ended Nov 14

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 68%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.5K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 99.5¢

+66% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 56 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down38 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares26,564

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Up18 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,498

Combined PnL+$636.59

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.4K	+$137.38	54% 403-338 (741)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$240.15	41% 252-362 (614)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$85.85	99% 827-7 (834)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Upavg 76.1¢	$2.7K	$2.0K	-$696.45	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$160.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.1¢	$1.5K	$940.19	-$535.99
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 40.4¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$361.71	60% 1012-687 (1699)
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 37.9¢	$854.68	$1.3K	+$395.86	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 48.2¢	$836.34	$1.1K	+$287.71	44% 720-917 (1637)
BO bosona	Downavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.1K	+$150.36	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 59.1¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$27.36	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$990	$995	+$5	49% 1520-1565 (3085)
MO mo-money	Downavg 46.5¢	$1.1K	$942.54	+$188.95	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 38.5¢	$690.83	$779.63	+$88.8	32% 676-1445 (2121)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 42.9¢	$522.9	$628.01	+$114.01	46% 770-906 (1676)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.6¢	$590.58	$596	+$5.42	98% 3678-79 (3757)
AL almach	Downavg 44¢	$396.86	$526.6	+$129.73	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 45.5¢	$454.77	$506.56	+$51.79	51% 345-325 (670)
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 52.5¢	$675.56	$483.09	+$22.03	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
ST stepahead	Downavg 45.6¢	$372.83	$477.84	+$105.01	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 50.2¢	$374.12	$465.69	+$108.26	52% 855-787 (1642)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 47.5¢	$307.42	$361.97	+$59.3	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 70.1¢	$407.82	$354.19	-$53.63	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 28.3¢	$216.36	$299.6	+$83.24	46% 1041-1218 (2259)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.3¢	$173.08	$235.62	+$62.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$43.28	$63.98	+$20.7
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 74.8¢	$238.39	$284.45	+$46.06	51% 770-743 (1513)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 73.1¢	$261.63	$270.82	+$12.76	67% 3366-1674 (5040)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$266.19	$257.07	-$9.11	48% 2113-2329 (4442)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$187.24	$161.29	-$25.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.4¢	$78.95	$95.78	+$16.84

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,583.48

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$137.38

Record

54%

403-338 (741)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$240.15

Record

41%

252-362 (614)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,399.66

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$85.85

Record

99%

827-7 (834)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Invested

$2,687.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$696.45

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

Both legs:

Down$1,211.2259.4¢-$160.46

Up$1,476.1876.1¢-$535.99

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,046.53

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$361.71

Record

60%

1012-687 (1699)

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$854.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$395.86

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$836.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$287.71

Record

44%

720-917 (1637)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,817.61

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$150.36

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

blue.birdsCTR

Invested

$1,052.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$27.36

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$990

Value

$995

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

1520-1565 (3085)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,120.06

Value

$942.54

PnL

+$188.95

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$690.83

Value

$779.63

PnL

+$88.8

Record

32%

676-1445 (2121)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$522.9

Value

$628.01

PnL

+$114.01

Record

46%

770-906 (1676)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$590.58

Value

$596

PnL

+$5.42

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

almach

Down

Invested

$396.86

Value

$526.6

PnL

+$129.73

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$454.77

Value

$506.56

PnL

+$51.79

Record

51%

345-325 (670)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$675.56

Value

$483.09

PnL

+$22.03

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$372.83

Value

$477.84

PnL

+$105.01

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$374.12

Value

$465.69

PnL

+$108.26

Record

52%

855-787 (1642)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$307.42

Value

$361.97

PnL

+$59.3

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$407.82

Value

$354.19

PnL

-$53.63

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$216.36

Value

$299.6

PnL

+$83.24

Record

46%

1041-1218 (2259)

Both legs:

Down$173.0828.3¢+$62.54

Up$43.2841.6¢+$20.7

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$238.39

Value

$284.45

PnL

+$46.06

Record

51%

770-743 (1513)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$261.63

Value

$270.82

PnL

+$12.76

Record

67%

3366-1674 (5040)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$266.19

Value

$257.07

PnL

-$9.11

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

Both legs:

Up$187.2456.3¢-$25.95

Down$78.9542.4¢+$16.84

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Down

38 of 56 top traders (68%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.