Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 83%
1 arb excluded
$14.8K
$-8.0K
Smart Money Signal
49 of 59 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.7K | — | $-8.3K | 54% 403-338 (741) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$53.14 | 41% 252-362 (614) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 86.8¢ | $971.05 | $989.18 | +$18.13 | 46% 1041-1218 (2259) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$9.8 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 82.8¢ | $648.11 | $700.1 | +$52 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
AL almach | Upavg 85.5¢ | $602.81 | $604.54 | +$1.73 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 97¢ | $999.64 | $500 | +$56.01 | 50% 1389-1374 (2763) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $544.7 | $488.58 | +$1.36 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $414.64 | $415.06 | +$0.42 | 52% 1380-1282 (2662) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $516.9 | $394.86 | -$121.99 | 71% 1584-646 (2230) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 87.2¢ | $359.45 | $339.97 | -$19.47 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
BO bosona | Upavg 96.4¢ | $1.3K | $357.46 | +$84.79 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $335.84 | $339.23 | +$3.39 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 75.9¢ | $282.85 | $287.48 | +$4.63 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
BO BonereaperARB<$100 | Downavg 38.9¢ | $401.09 | $179.92 | -$221.17 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 63¢ | $113.38 | $179.92 | +$66.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.9¢ | $287.71 | — | -$287.71 | |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 71.3¢ | $264.7 | $225.96 | -$38.74 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 91.9¢ | $296.59 | $232.08 | -$24.41 | 32% 676-1445 (2121) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 56.9¢ | $142.24 | $222.49 | +$80.25 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 69.3¢ | $194.04 | $227.29 | +$33.25 | 46% 770-906 (1676) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 85.5¢ | $208.37 | $218.4 | +$10.03 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 65.5¢ | $118.08 | $173.43 | +$55.35 | 51% 770-753 (1523) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 81.9¢ | $152.43 | $173.33 | +$20.9 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 90.3¢ | $147.55 | $156.44 | +$8.89 | 51% 770-743 (1513) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Upavg 98¢ | $142.77 | $145.16 | +$2.39 | 38% 1410-2275 (3685) |
 OhioAI | Upavg 69.6¢ | $115.11 | $133 | +$17.89 | 50% 745-731 (1476) |
Invested
$8,719
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$53.14
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
machinelearnedInvested
$971.05
Value
$989.18
PnL
+$18.13
Record
46%
1041-1218 (2259)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$9.8
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$648.11
Value
$700.1
PnL
+$52
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$602.81
Value
$604.54
PnL
+$1.73
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
Invested
$999.64
Value
$500
PnL
+$56.01
Record
50%
1389-1374 (2763)
Invested
$544.7
Value
$488.58
PnL
+$1.36
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$414.64
Value
$415.06
PnL
+$0.42
Record
52%
1380-1282 (2662)
BoneOhioInvested
$516.9
Value
$394.86
PnL
-$121.99
Record
71%
1584-646 (2230)
Invested
$359.45
Value
$339.97
PnL
-$19.47
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$1,329.45
Value
$357.46
PnL
+$84.79
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$335.84
Value
$339.23
PnL
+$3.39
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$282.85
Value
$287.48
PnL
+$4.63
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
Invested
$401.09
Value
$179.92
PnL
-$221.17
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Both legs:
Invested
$264.7
Value
$225.96
PnL
-$38.74
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
Invested
$296.59
Value
$232.08
PnL
-$24.41
Record
32%
676-1445 (2121)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$142.24
Value
$222.49
PnL
+$80.25
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$194.04
Value
$227.29
PnL
+$33.25
Record
46%
770-906 (1676)
Invested
$208.37
Value
$218.4
PnL
+$10.03
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$118.08
Value
$173.43
PnL
+$55.35
Record
51%
770-753 (1523)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$152.43
Value
$173.33
PnL
+$20.9
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Invested
$147.55
Value
$156.44
PnL
+$8.89
Record
51%
770-743 (1513)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$142.77
Value
$145.16
PnL
+$2.39
Record
38%
1410-2275 (3685)
OhioAIInvested
$115.11
Value
$133
PnL
+$17.89
Record
50%
745-731 (1476)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
machinelearned
Up — $989.18
soswald1
Up — $950
CrouchPredictions
Up — $700.1
almach
Up — $604.54
mo-money
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $488.58
0x50f7
Up — $415.06
BoneOhio
Up — $394.86