Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 78%
1 arb excluded
$12.8K
$-12.6K
Smart Money Signal
47 of 60 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.2K | 54% 403-338 (741) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.8K | 41% 252-362 (614) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 97.5¢ | $3.7K | $3.8K | +$92.42 | 71% 1584-646 (2230) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 60.9¢ | $810.09 | $1.0K | +$211.28 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 74.8¢ | $738.74 | $849.69 | +$111.35 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $779.78 | $795.99 | +$16.21 | 98% 3678-79 (3757) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.2¢ | $569.88 | $635.65 | +$65.77 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $642.56 | $481.06 | +$13.6 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 69.1¢ | $449.91 | $623.22 | +$173.31 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.1¢ | $376.22 | $380.97 | +$8.1 | 52% 855-787 (1642) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.2¢ | $329.64 | $378.68 | +$49.04 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 64.9¢ | $221.4 | $337.81 | +$116.41 | 46% 1041-1218 (2259) |
AL almach | Downavg 62.6¢ | $255.16 | $327.34 | +$72.18 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 74.7¢ | $265.98 | $313.66 | +$50.78 | 53% 4528-3944 (8472) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 74.4¢ | $231.13 | $218.99 | -$12.15 | 51% 345-325 (670) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 75.4¢ | $300.4 | $214.93 | -$85.47 | 46% 770-906 (1676) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 76.3¢ | $167.85 | $207.24 | +$39.39 | 50% 1389-1374 (2763) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 75.8¢ | $266.43 | $203.82 | +$1.42 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 28.4¢ | $286.46 | — | -$286.46 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 72.4¢ | $176.31 | $190.01 | +$13.7 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $156.78 | $158 | +$1.22 | 50% 745-731 (1476) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.6¢ | $97.35 | $158 | +$60.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.4¢ | $59.43 | — | -$59.43 | |
SU suntori | Downavg 98¢ | $214.07 | $155.46 | -$59.3 | 46% 2743-3256 (5999) |
BO bosona | Downavg 76.1¢ | $594.81 | $155.97 | +$169.43 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
AN antsaslyku | Downavg 64.2¢ | $86.56 | $119.26 | +$32.7 | 37% 1347-2255 (3602) |
 ohioism | Downavg 87.5¢ | $139.56 | $100 | -$39.56 | 47% 2060-2289 (4349) |
Invested
$8,968
Value
—
PnL
$-8.2K
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,657.58
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$92.42
Record
71%
1584-646 (2230)
Invested
$810.09
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$211.28
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Invested
$738.74
Value
$849.69
PnL
+$111.35
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$779.78
Value
$795.99
PnL
+$16.21
Record
98%
3678-79 (3757)
Invested
$569.88
Value
$635.65
PnL
+$65.77
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$642.56
Value
$481.06
PnL
+$13.6
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$449.91
Value
$623.22
PnL
+$173.31
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$376.22
Value
$380.97
PnL
+$8.1
Record
52%
855-787 (1642)
Invested
$329.64
Value
$378.68
PnL
+$49.04
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
machinelearnedInvested
$221.4
Value
$337.81
PnL
+$116.41
Record
46%
1041-1218 (2259)
Invested
$255.16
Value
$327.34
PnL
+$72.18
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
FairValueMachineInvested
$265.98
Value
$313.66
PnL
+$50.78
Record
53%
4528-3944 (8472)
Invested
$231.13
Value
$218.99
PnL
-$12.15
Record
51%
345-325 (670)
Invested
$300.4
Value
$214.93
PnL
-$85.47
Record
46%
770-906 (1676)
Invested
$167.85
Value
$207.24
PnL
+$39.39
Record
50%
1389-1374 (2763)
Invested
$266.43
Value
$203.82
PnL
+$1.42
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$286.46
Value
—
PnL
-$286.46
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$176.31
Value
$190.01
PnL
+$13.7
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$156.78
Value
$158
PnL
+$1.22
Record
50%
745-731 (1476)
Both legs:
Invested
$214.07
Value
$155.46
PnL
-$59.3
Record
46%
2743-3256 (5999)
Invested
$594.81
Value
$155.97
PnL
+$169.43
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$86.56
Value
$119.26
PnL
+$32.7
Record
37%
1347-2255 (3602)
ohioismInvested
$139.56
Value
$100
PnL
-$39.56
Record
47%
2060-2289 (4349)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
BoneOhio
Down — $3.8K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $849.69
hoodquant
Down — $795.99
blue.birds
Down — $635.65
ByteBadger92
Down — $481.06
uninformedfloww
Down — $623.22
wzbbb
Down — $380.97