Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$-12.2K

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 51 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up17 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,609

Combined PnL$-13.5K

Down34 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares11,639

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.2K	54% 403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.9K	41% 252-362 (614)
SU suntori	Downavg 96.9¢	$4.4K	$4.0K	-$326.35	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$855.46	$820.57	-$34.89	60% 1012-687 (1699)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$468.39	$820.57	+$352.17
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.5¢	$387.06	—	-$387.06
AL almach	Downavg 64.2¢	$493.8	$752.52	+$258.72	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
BO bosona	Downavg 63.5¢	$503.73	$770.04	+$266.31	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 56.6¢	$385.77	$681.79	+$296.02	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 56.8¢	$571.34	$662.22	+$114.88	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 71.9¢	$625.48	$641.43	+$15.95	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$572.56	$611.3	+$38.74	44% 720-917 (1637)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$401.64	$611.3	+$209.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$170.91	—	-$170.91
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 51.7¢	$583.21	$484.43	+$7.74	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 64¢	$414.28	$382.83	-$16.25	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
MO mo-money	Downavg 56¢	$204.62	$347.78	+$143.15	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
ST stepahead	Downavg 53.9¢	$274.2	$336.33	+$62.14	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
machinelearned	Downavg 63.4¢	$232.16	$338.15	+$105.99	46% 1041-1218 (2259)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 80.6¢	$361.3	$317.93	-$30.24	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.4¢	$239.4	$272.45	+$55.39	32% 676-1445 (2121)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 63.3¢	$245.45	$297.01	+$51.56	53% 4528-3944 (8472)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$245.54	$219.53	-$26.01	51% 345-325 (670)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.9¢	$131.51	$219.53	+$88.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$114.02	—	-$114.02
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$226.38	$194.67	-$31.7	52% 855-787 (1642)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$124.78	$194.67	+$69.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.4¢	$101.6	—	-$101.6
OhioAI	Downavg 59.8¢	$215.15	$206.04	-$9.12	50% 745-731 (1476)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 34¢	$224.2	$88.64	-$135.56	46% 770-906 (1676)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34¢	$175.75	—	-$175.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$48.45	$88.64	+$40.19
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Downavg 89.4¢	$207.59	$165.36	+$6.68	62% 3967-2385 (6352)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 30.2¢	$159.47	$99.96	-$59.51	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$62.98	$99.96	+$36.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$96.5	—	-$96.5
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 59.5¢	$115.97	$147.25	+$31.28	48% 2113-2329 (4442)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,855

Value

—

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

54%

403-338 (741)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

41%

252-362 (614)

suntori

Down

Invested

$4,428.26

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$326.35

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$855.46

Value

$820.57

PnL

-$34.89

Record

60%

1012-687 (1699)

Both legs:

Down$468.3957.1¢+$352.17

Up$387.0637.5¢-$387.06

almach

Down

Invested

$493.8

Value

$752.52

PnL

+$258.72

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

bosona

Down

Invested

$503.73

Value

$770.04

PnL

+$266.31

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$385.77

Value

$681.79

PnL

+$296.02

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$571.34

Value

$662.22

PnL

+$114.88

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$625.48

Value

$641.43

PnL

+$15.95

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$572.56

Value

$611.3

PnL

+$38.74

Record

44%

720-917 (1637)

Both legs:

Down$401.6465.7¢+$209.66

Up$170.9136¢-$170.91

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$583.21

Value

$484.43

PnL

+$7.74

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$414.28

Value

$382.83

PnL

-$16.25

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$204.62

Value

$347.78

PnL

+$143.15

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$274.2

Value

$336.33

PnL

+$62.14

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$232.16

Value

$338.15

PnL

+$105.99

Record

46%

1041-1218 (2259)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$361.3

Value

$317.93

PnL

-$30.24

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$239.4

Value

$272.45

PnL

+$55.39

Record

32%

676-1445 (2121)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$245.45

Value

$297.01

PnL

+$51.56

Record

53%

4528-3944 (8472)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$245.54

Value

$219.53

PnL

-$26.01

Record

51%

345-325 (670)

Both legs:

Down$131.5159.9¢+$88.02

Up$114.0249.7¢-$114.02

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.38

Value

$194.67

PnL

-$31.7

Record

52%

855-787 (1642)

Both legs:

Down$124.7864.1¢+$69.9

Up$101.636.4¢-$101.6

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$215.15

Value

$206.04

PnL

-$9.12

Record

50%

745-731 (1476)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$224.2

Value

$88.64

PnL

-$135.56

Record

46%

770-906 (1676)

Both legs:

Up$175.7534¢-$175.75

Down$48.4554.7¢+$40.19

drfc4eybh7i8

Down

Invested

$207.59

Value

$165.36

PnL

+$6.68

Record

62%

3967-2385 (6352)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$159.47

Value

$99.96

PnL

-$59.51

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

Both legs:

Down$62.9863¢+$36.99

Up$96.530.2¢-$96.5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$115.97

Value

$147.25

PnL

+$31.28

Record

48%

2113-2329 (4442)

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 51 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x76930069...86ca0c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794683700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

suntori

Down — $4.0K

-$326.35

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$34.89

almach

Down — $752.52

+$258.72

bosona

Down — $770.04

+$266.31

uninformedfloww

Down — $681.79

+$296.02

CrouchPredictions

Down — $662.22

+$114.88

blue.birds

Down — $641.43

+$15.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$38.74

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