Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
56
Up 44%
6 arb excluded
$6.6K
$-14.3K
Smart Money Signal
24 of 56 top traders (43%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.1K | 54% 403-338 (741) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 41% 252-362 (614) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$915.91 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 79.4¢ | $609.64 | $633.48 | +$23.85 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.9¢ | $613.84 | $497.1 | -$106.38 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.9¢ | $591.79 | $483.83 | +$3.99 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 73.6¢ | $431.9 | $428.86 | -$3.04 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 67.8¢ | $354.93 | $412.95 | +$58.02 | 46% 1041-1218 (2259) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.1¢ | $419.58 | $380 | -$39.58 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 86.4¢ | $339.12 | $329.38 | -$9.74 | 32% 676-1445 (2121) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 84.7¢ | $325.68 | $273.95 | -$51.74 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $241.18 | $243 | +$1.82 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.3¢ | $182.97 | $243 | +$60.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.5¢ | $58.21 | — | -$58.21 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 76.2¢ | $200.45 | $218.73 | +$18.27 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 81.4¢ | $181.85 | $197.23 | +$15.38 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
AL almachARB<$100 | Upavg 23.5¢ | $308.32 | $54.78 | -$253.54 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.5¢ | $259.02 | — | -$259.02 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 90¢ | $49.3 | $54.78 | +$5.48 | |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Downavg 80.4¢ | $174.1 | $149.82 | -$24.27 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.4¢ | $120.5 | $149.82 | +$29.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 20.4¢ | $53.59 | — | -$53.59 | |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 83.5¢ | $146.94 | $169.99 | +$23.05 | 53% 4528-3944 (8472) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 85¢ | $180.8 | $162.74 | -$18.06 | 52% 855-787 (1642) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $132.58 | $162.98 | +$30.4 | 46% 687-814 (1501) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 81.8¢ | $147.52 | $150.92 | +$3.41 | 51% 345-325 (670) |
 BoneOhioARB<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $146.97 | $149.98 | +$3 | 71% 1584-646 (2230) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76¢ | $113.98 | $149.98 | +$35.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22¢ | $32.99 | — | -$32.99 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025 | Downavg 76.5¢ | $129.12 | $134.99 | +$5.87 | 48% 2157-2382 (4539) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 87.4¢ | $124.44 | $130 | +$5.56 | 51% 836-790 (1626) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Upavg 14.9¢ | $165.55 | — | -$165.55 | 50% 1389-1374 (2763) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 73.4¢ | $119.31 | $160 | +$40.69 | 40% 745-1100 (1845) |
Invested
$8,947
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$915.91
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$609.64
Value
$633.48
PnL
+$23.85
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Invested
$613.84
Value
$497.1
PnL
-$106.38
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$591.79
Value
$483.83
PnL
+$3.99
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
Invested
$431.9
Value
$428.86
PnL
-$3.04
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
machinelearnedInvested
$354.93
Value
$412.95
PnL
+$58.02
Record
46%
1041-1218 (2259)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$419.58
Value
$380
PnL
-$39.58
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$339.12
Value
$329.38
PnL
-$9.74
Record
32%
676-1445 (2121)
Invested
$325.68
Value
$273.95
PnL
-$51.74
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
Invested
$241.18
Value
$243
PnL
+$1.82
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Both legs:
Invested
$200.45
Value
$218.73
PnL
+$18.27
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$181.85
Value
$197.23
PnL
+$15.38
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
Invested
$308.32
Value
$54.78
PnL
-$253.54
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$174.1
Value
$149.82
PnL
-$24.27
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$146.94
Value
$169.99
PnL
+$23.05
Record
53%
4528-3944 (8472)
Invested
$180.8
Value
$162.74
PnL
-$18.06
Record
52%
855-787 (1642)
Invested
$132.58
Value
$162.98
PnL
+$30.4
Record
46%
687-814 (1501)
Invested
$147.52
Value
$150.92
PnL
+$3.41
Record
51%
345-325 (670)
BoneOhioARB<$100Invested
$146.97
Value
$149.98
PnL
+$3
Record
71%
1584-646 (2230)
Both legs:
Invested
$129.12
Value
$134.99
PnL
+$5.87
Record
48%
2157-2382 (4539)
Invested
$124.44
Value
$130
PnL
+$5.56
Record
51%
836-790 (1626)
Invested
$165.55
Value
—
PnL
-$165.55
Record
50%
1389-1374 (2763)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$119.31
Value
$160
PnL
+$40.69
Record
40%
745-1100 (1845)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $633.48
CrouchPredictions
Down — $497.1
ByteBadger92
Down — $483.83
stepahead
Down — $428.86
machinelearned
Down — $412.95
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $380
ply-pm0
Down — $329.38