Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
60
Down 29%
1 arb excluded
$8.6K
$-12.7K
Smart Money Signal
16 of 60 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.1K | 54% 403-338 (741) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.5K | 41% 252-362 (614) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $940 | +$18.9 | 51% 3344-3190 (6534) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60.5¢ | $741.5 | $806.72 | +$68.58 | 47% 1000-1136 (2136) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 62.7¢ | $640.26 | $664.64 | +$24.38 | 60% 1012-687 (1699) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 49.6¢ | $543.6 | — | -$543.6 | 50% 2249-2257 (4506) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 61.3¢ | $524.14 | $571.48 | +$47.35 | 55% 4400-3587 (7987) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $509.23 | $552.38 | +$43.15 | 32% 676-1445 (2121) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $566.05 | $490.53 | +$7.67 | 54% 3484-2956 (6440) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 61.4¢ | $332.79 | $524.17 | +$191.39 | 46% 1041-1218 (2259) |
AL almach | Upavg 96¢ | $1.0K | $438.19 | +$158.36 | 51% 1399-1354 (2753) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 86¢ | $443.2 | $433.05 | -$10.15 | 51% 4998-4717 (9715) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $353.77 | $336.4 | -$17.37 | 51% 3138-3071 (6209) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 39.4¢ | $417.36 | — | -$417.36 | 44% 720-917 (1637) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 59.3¢ | $253.69 | $312.03 | +$58.34 | 52% 2184-2035 (4219) |
BO bosona | Upavg 69¢ | $656.14 | $265.93 | +$215.68 | 51% 4643-4484 (9127) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 85.7¢ | $270.12 | $266.13 | -$3.99 | 50% 4397-4477 (8874) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 68.8¢ | $206.33 | $223.91 | +$35.38 | 53% 4528-3944 (8472) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 60.4¢ | $142.9 | $210 | +$82.22 | 40% 745-1100 (1845) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $214.69 | $248.46 | +$33.77 | 51% 770-753 (1523) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.9¢ | $126.49 | $248.46 | +$121.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $88.2 | — | -$88.2 | |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 38.7¢ | $230.92 | — | -$230.92 | 46% 770-906 (1676) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 55.8¢ | $110.92 | $159.94 | +$49.02 | 48% 2113-2329 (4442) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 58.3¢ | $139.73 | $133.31 | +$59.33 | 52% 855-787 (1642) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $89.97 | $99 | +$9.03 | 50% 745-731 (1476) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 51.3¢ | $89.23 | $94.99 | +$5.76 | 44% 2059-2654 (4713) |
Invested
$8,991
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
54%
403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.5K
Record
41%
252-362 (614)
Invested
$950
Value
$940
PnL
+$18.9
Record
51%
3344-3190 (6534)
Invested
$741.5
Value
$806.72
PnL
+$68.58
Record
47%
1000-1136 (2136)
Invested
$640.26
Value
$664.64
PnL
+$24.38
Record
60%
1012-687 (1699)
Invested
$543.6
Value
—
PnL
-$543.6
Record
50%
2249-2257 (4506)
Invested
$524.14
Value
$571.48
PnL
+$47.35
Record
55%
4400-3587 (7987)
Invested
$509.23
Value
$552.38
PnL
+$43.15
Record
32%
676-1445 (2121)
Invested
$566.05
Value
$490.53
PnL
+$7.67
Record
54%
3484-2956 (6440)
machinelearnedInvested
$332.79
Value
$524.17
PnL
+$191.39
Record
46%
1041-1218 (2259)
Invested
$1,014.57
Value
$438.19
PnL
+$158.36
Record
51%
1399-1354 (2753)
Invested
$443.2
Value
$433.05
PnL
-$10.15
Record
51%
4998-4717 (9715)
Invested
$353.77
Value
$336.4
PnL
-$17.37
Record
51%
3138-3071 (6209)
Invested
$417.36
Value
—
PnL
-$417.36
Record
44%
720-917 (1637)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$253.69
Value
$312.03
PnL
+$58.34
Record
52%
2184-2035 (4219)
Invested
$656.14
Value
$265.93
PnL
+$215.68
Record
51%
4643-4484 (9127)
Invested
$270.12
Value
$266.13
PnL
-$3.99
Record
50%
4397-4477 (8874)
FairValueMachineInvested
$206.33
Value
$223.91
PnL
+$35.38
Record
53%
4528-3944 (8472)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$142.9
Value
$210
PnL
+$82.22
Record
40%
745-1100 (1845)
Invested
$214.69
Value
$248.46
PnL
+$33.77
Record
51%
770-753 (1523)
Both legs:
Invested
$230.92
Value
—
PnL
-$230.92
Record
46%
770-906 (1676)
Invested
$110.92
Value
$159.94
PnL
+$49.02
Record
48%
2113-2329 (4442)
Invested
$139.73
Value
$133.31
PnL
+$59.33
Record
52%
855-787 (1642)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$89.97
Value
$99
PnL
+$9.03
Record
50%
745-731 (1476)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$89.23
Value
$94.99
PnL
+$5.76
Record
44%
2059-2654 (4713)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $940
CrouchPredictions
Up — $806.72
Bonereaper
Up — $664.64
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $571.48
ply-pm0
Up — $552.38
ByteBadger92
Up — $490.53
machinelearned
Up — $524.17