Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

21 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.6K

Combined PnL

$22.03

Smart Money Signal

26 of 38 top traders (68%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,398

Combined PnL+$397

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,010

Combined PnL-$374.97

Up — 68%Down — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.2K	+$16.21	54% 403-338 (741)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.1K	$8.2K	+$4.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.1K	—	$-4.3K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$9.2	41% 252-362 (614)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	—	$-2.5K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$22.81	99% 827-7 (834)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$949.94	+$2.09	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$474.97	$949.94	+$474.99
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$460.45	—	-$472.9
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 81.1¢	$733.64	$616.74	-$80.44	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.1¢	$199.13	—	-$199.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.1¢	$499.93	$616.74	+$118.69
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 77.8¢	$759	$675.99	-$81.21	60% 1012-687 (1699)
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.4¢	$230.67	—	-$231.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.8¢	$525.69	$675.99	+$150.3
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 11¢	$140.4	—	-$140.4	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
machinelearned	Upavg 80.8¢	$882.36	$1.1K	+$172.31	46% 1041-1218 (2259)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 54.4¢	$573.33	$488.62	+$0.68	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.3¢	$229.14	—	-$252.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.4¢	$265.65	$488.62	+$253.01
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 86.2¢	$464.59	$442.73	-$19.45	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.6¢	$78.36	—	-$80.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.2¢	$381.84	$442.73	+$60.89
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 83.3¢	$314.32	$252.13	-$47.66	44% 720-917 (1637)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.8¢	$90.61	—	-$90.61
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.3¢	$209.97	$252.13	+$42.95
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 76.6¢	$348.24	$364.11	+$15.87	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.6¢	$278.78	$364.11	+$85.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.2¢	$69.46	—	-$69.46
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 89.8¢	$355.07	$371.99	+$16.92	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.8¢	$334.03	$371.99	+$37.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 7¢	$21.04	—	-$21.04
BO bosona	Upavg 86.8¢	$550.43	$634.35	+$83.92	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Upavg 90.1¢	$279.89	$256.58	-$23.31	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.6¢	$48.64	—	-$48.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.1¢	$231.25	$256.58	+$25.33
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 80.3¢	$237.09	$235.41	+$2.67	46% 770-906 (1676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 15¢	$44.02	—	-$44.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.3¢	$189.05	$235.41	+$46.69
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$249.91	$284.93	+$35.02	52% 855-787 (1642)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.5¢	$226.62	$284.93	+$58.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 14¢	$23.29	—	-$23.29
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 85.3¢	$158.6	$165	+$6.4	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 6.2¢	$17.8	—	-$17.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 85.3¢	$140.8	$165	+$24.2
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$274.87	$291.44	+$16.57	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.8¢	$252.93	$291.44	+$38.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 25¢	$21.94	—	-$21.94
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98¢	$354.76	$362	+$7.24	98% 3678-79 (3757)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$173	$160	-$10.4	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$105.4	$160	+$54.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$60.09	—	-$65
SU suntori	Upavg 92.5¢	$247.68	$267.65	+$19.97	46% 2743-3256 (5999)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 84.7¢	$129.53	$142.63	+$13.1	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.7¢	$120.85	$142.63	+$21.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.8¢	$8.67	—	-$8.67
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$98.49	—	-$98.49	50% 1894-1863 (3757)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 78.1¢	$89.92	$93.3	+$4.87	53% 4528-3944 (8472)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.1¢	$72.89	$93.3	+$20.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.5¢	$15.64	—	-$15.64

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,633

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$16.21

Record

54%

403-338 (741)

Both legs:

Up$4,124.6150¢+$4.3K

Down$4,088.5650¢$-4.3K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$9.2

Record

41%

252-362 (614)

Both legs:

Up$2,47550¢+$2.5K

Down$2,409.3650¢$-2.5K

THG.

Invested

$2,258.49

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$22.81

Record

99%

827-7 (834)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$949.94

PnL

+$2.09

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

Both legs:

Up$474.9750¢+$474.99

Down$460.4550¢-$472.9

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$733.64

Value

$616.74

PnL

-$80.44

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

Both legs:

Down$199.1317.1¢-$199.13

Up$499.9381.1¢+$118.69

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$759

Value

$675.99

PnL

-$81.21

Record

60%

1012-687 (1699)

Both legs:

Down$230.6726.4¢-$231.51

Up$525.6977.8¢+$150.3

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$140.4

Value

—

PnL

-$140.4

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

machinelearned

Invested

$882.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$172.31

Record

46%

1041-1218 (2259)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$573.33

Value

$488.62

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Down$229.1445.3¢-$252.33

Up$265.6554.4¢+$253.01

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$464.59

Value

$442.73

PnL

-$19.45

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

Both legs:

Down$78.3614.6¢-$80.35

Up$381.8486.2¢+$60.89

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$314.32

Value

$252.13

PnL

-$47.66

Record

44%

720-917 (1637)

Both legs:

Down$90.6113.8¢-$90.61

Up$209.9783.3¢+$42.95

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$348.24

Value

$364.11

PnL

+$15.87

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

Both legs:

Up$278.7876.6¢+$85.34

Down$69.4622.2¢-$69.46

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$355.07

Value

$371.99

PnL

+$16.92

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

Both legs:

Up$334.0389.8¢+$37.96

Down$21.047¢-$21.04

bosona

Invested

$550.43

Value

$634.35

PnL

+$83.92

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

asdcaxzARB<$100

Invested

$279.89

Value

$256.58

PnL

-$23.31

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

Both legs:

Down$48.6413.6¢-$48.64

Up$231.2590.1¢+$25.33

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$237.09

Value

$235.41

PnL

+$2.67

Record

46%

770-906 (1676)

Both legs:

Down$44.0215¢-$44.02

Up$189.0580.3¢+$46.69

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$249.91

Value

$284.93

PnL

+$35.02

Record

52%

855-787 (1642)

Both legs:

Up$226.6279.5¢+$58.31

Down$23.2914¢-$23.29

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$158.6

Value

$165

PnL

+$6.4

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

Both legs:

Down$17.86.2¢-$17.8

Up$140.885.3¢+$24.2

almachARB<$100

Invested

$274.87

Value

$291.44

PnL

+$16.57

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

Both legs:

Up$252.9386.8¢+$38.51

Down$21.9425¢-$21.94

hoodquant

Invested

$354.76

Value

$362

PnL

+$7.24

Record

98%

3678-79 (3757)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$173

Value

$160

PnL

-$10.4

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

Both legs:

Up$105.465.9¢+$54.6

Down$60.0937.6¢-$65

suntori

Invested

$247.68

Value

$267.65

PnL

+$19.97

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$129.53

Value

$142.63

PnL

+$13.1

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

Both legs:

Up$120.8584.7¢+$21.78

Down$8.6713.8¢-$8.67

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$98.49

Value

—

PnL

-$98.49

Record

50%

1894-1863 (3757)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$89.92

Value

$93.3

PnL

+$4.87

Record

53%

4528-3944 (8472)

Both legs:

Up$72.8978.1¢+$20.51

Down$15.6416.5¢-$15.64

Smart Money Signal

26 of 38 top traders (68%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8ac6d329...9f4df2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794682800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $2.3K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

machinelearned

Up — $1.1K

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded