Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$-8.3K

Smart Money Signal

42 of 56 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares9,486

Combined PnL$-8.6K

Up42 traders

Total Value$15.8K

Total Shares15,811

Combined PnL+$246.53

Down — 25%Up — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.2K	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$18.49	41% 247-358 (605)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 93.3¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$162.16	50% 1880-1856 (3736)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$864.79	$877	+$12.21	98% 3651-75 (3726)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 74.3¢	$672.56	$663.55	-$9.01	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 72.1¢	$574.41	$603.06	+$34.44	60% 1005-684 (1689)
ST stepahead	Upavg 71.5¢	$543.3	$591.72	+$48.42	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.3¢	$588.03	$485.39	-$15.36	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 84.8¢	$570.37	$477.33	-$93.04	47% 991-1132 (2123)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 71.3¢	$406.81	$354.98	-$26.68	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 75¢	$343.21	$337.07	-$6.14	32% 670-1442 (2112)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 72.6¢	$333.82	$260.23	-$73.58	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.6¢	$144.91	—	-$144.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.6¢	$188.91	$260.23	+$71.32
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 74.8¢	$353.94	$290.53	-$63.41	44% 716-912 (1628)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 75¢	$265.48	$309.55	+$44.07	46% 681-811 (1492)
SU suntori	Upavg 68.8¢	$192.75	$278.55	+$87.31	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 67¢	$232.19	$271.34	+$43.99	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
BO bosona	Upavg 87.1¢	$285.96	$292.57	+$6.61	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 74.1¢	$319.67	$254.9	-$55.27	46% 764-903 (1667)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 72.7¢	$212.04	$229.16	+$17.12	51% 765-749 (1514)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 80.9¢	$169.72	$199.99	+$34.47	53% 4524-3941 (8465)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 88.9¢	$185.6	$157.37	-$28.24	51% 754-731 (1485)
└ Up leg	Upavg 88.9¢	$139.89	$157.37	+$17.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.2¢	$45.71	—	-$45.71
MO mo-money	Upavg 79.6¢	$545.8	$191.82	-$72.06	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
HC Hcrystallash	Upavg 77.3¢	$130.4	$168.74	+$38.34	58% 4982-3643 (8625)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 72.7¢	$131.78	$164.24	+$32.46	50% 746-753 (1499)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 66.5¢	$135.46	$157.76	+$22.3	47% 2135-2370 (4505)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,777

Value

—

PnL

$-8.2K

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$18.49

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$2,257.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$162.16

Record

50%

1880-1856 (3736)

hoodquant

Invested

$864.79

Value

$877

PnL

+$12.21

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

blue.birds

Invested

$672.56

Value

$663.55

PnL

-$9.01

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

Bonereaper

Invested

$574.41

Value

$603.06

PnL

+$34.44

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

stepahead

Invested

$543.3

Value

$591.72

PnL

+$48.42

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$588.03

Value

$485.39

PnL

-$15.36

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$570.37

Value

$477.33

PnL

-$93.04

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$406.81

Value

$354.98

PnL

-$26.68

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

ply-pm0

Invested

$343.21

Value

$337.07

PnL

-$6.14

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$333.82

Value

$260.23

PnL

-$73.58

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

Both legs:

Down$144.9137.6¢-$144.91

Up$188.9172.6¢+$71.32

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$353.94

Value

$290.53

PnL

-$63.41

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$265.48

Value

$309.55

PnL

+$44.07

Record

46%

681-811 (1492)

suntori

Invested

$192.75

Value

$278.55

PnL

+$87.31

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$232.19

Value

$271.34

PnL

+$43.99

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

bosona

Invested

$285.96

Value

$292.57

PnL

+$6.61

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

GoodFallen

Invested

$319.67

Value

$254.9

PnL

-$55.27

Record

46%

764-903 (1667)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$212.04

Value

$229.16

PnL

+$17.12

Record

51%

765-749 (1514)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$169.72

Value

$199.99

PnL

+$34.47

Record

53%

4524-3941 (8465)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$185.6

Value

$157.37

PnL

-$28.24

Record

51%

754-731 (1485)

Both legs:

Up$139.8988.9¢+$17.48

Down$45.7114.2¢-$45.71

mo-money

Invested

$545.8

Value

$191.82

PnL

-$72.06

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

Hcrystallash

Invested

$130.4

Value

$168.74

PnL

+$38.34

Record

58%

4982-3643 (8625)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$131.78

Value

$164.24

PnL

+$32.46

Record

50%

746-753 (1499)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$135.46

Value

$157.76

PnL

+$22.3

Record

47%

2135-2370 (4505)

Smart Money Signal

42 of 56 top traders (75%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc273a157...ac9d69

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794682500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.2K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

-$18.49

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.4K

+$162.16

hoodquant

Up — $877

+$12.21

blue.birds

Up — $663.55

-$9.01

Bonereaper

Up — $603.06

+$34.44

stepahead

Up — $591.72

+$48.42

ByteBadger92

Up — $485.39

-$15.36

CrouchPredictions

Up — $477.33

-$93.04

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $354.98

-$26.68

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