Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 49%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.0K

Combined PnL

$-15.6K

Smart Money Signal

32 of 73 top traders (44%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed32 hold an outcome priced under 50%48 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up32 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares19,720

Combined PnL$-15.5K

Down41 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares11,069

Combined PnL-$93.99

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$9.0K	—	$-8.4K	54% 403-338 (741)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.7K	41% 252-362 (614)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$32.88	99% 827-7 (834)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 54.4¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$436.29	60% 1012-687 (1699)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 58.4¢	$923.96	$972.6	+$48.63	51% 4998-4717 (9715)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$890	-$26.52	51% 3344-3190 (6534)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$445	$890	+$446
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$469.92	—	-$472.52
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 67¢	$865.67	$756.66	-$109	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 49.2¢	$657	$715.46	+$58.46	32% 676-1445 (2121)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.2¢	$352	$715.46	+$363.46
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.3¢	$305	—	-$305
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.6¢	$1.0K	$725.74	-$185.05	50% 1389-1374 (2763)
BO bosona	Downavg 77.8¢	$1.2K	$610.89	-$200.09	51% 4643-4484 (9127)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$629.66	$480.66	-$11.26	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$250.83	$480.66	+$243.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.7¢	$247.41	—	-$254.6
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR	Upavg 38¢	$487.49	—	-$487.49	47% 1000-1136 (2136)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 39.2¢	$462.71	$404.4	-$58.31	44% 720-917 (1637)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$202.4	$404.4	+$202
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.2¢	$260.31	—	-$260.31
ST stepahead	Downavg 52.1¢	$427.61	$418.95	-$8.66	55% 4400-3587 (7987)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 57¢	$314.6	$397.01	+$82.41	50% 4397-4477 (8874)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 39.8¢	$306.49	$301.21	-$5.28	46% 770-906 (1676)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.5¢	$143.22	$301.21	+$157.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.8¢	$163.27	—	-$163.27
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87.5¢	$411.63	$305.01	-$106.62	52% 2184-2035 (4219)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 62.9¢	$348.06	$297.17	-$48.47	52% 855-787 (1642)
AL almach	Downavg 79.7¢	$540.96	$269.95	-$161.96	51% 1399-1354 (2753)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 43.5¢	$283.22	—	-$283.22	46% 1041-1218 (2259)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 53.2¢	$202.19	$250.25	+$62.05	53% 4528-3944 (8472)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 75.6¢	$218.33	$202.21	-$16.12	51% 345-325 (670)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 67.2¢	$161.36	$182.48	+$38.53	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 30.3¢	$2.0K	—	-$16	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
OhioAICTR	Upavg 43.6¢	$148.09	—	-$137.08	50% 745-731 (1476)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,970

Value

—

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

54%

403-338 (741)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

41%

252-362 (614)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,255.17

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$32.88

Record

99%

827-7 (834)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,056.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$436.29

Record

60%

1012-687 (1699)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$923.96

Value

$972.6

PnL

+$48.63

Record

51%

4998-4717 (9715)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$890

PnL

-$26.52

Record

51%

3344-3190 (6534)

Both legs:

Down$44550¢+$446

Up$469.9250¢-$472.52

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$865.67

Value

$756.66

PnL

-$109

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$657

Value

$715.46

PnL

+$58.46

Record

32%

676-1445 (2121)

Both legs:

Down$35249.2¢+$363.46

Up$30536.3¢-$305

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,016.42

Value

$725.74

PnL

-$185.05

Record

50%

1389-1374 (2763)

bosona

Down

Invested

$1,244.65

Value

$610.89

PnL

-$200.09

Record

51%

4643-4484 (9127)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$629.66

Value

$480.66

PnL

-$11.26

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Down$250.8352.2¢+$243.34

Up$247.4147.7¢-$254.6

CrouchPredictionsCTR

Invested

$487.49

Value

—

PnL

-$487.49

Record

47%

1000-1136 (2136)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$462.71

Value

$404.4

PnL

-$58.31

Record

44%

720-917 (1637)

Both legs:

Down$202.450¢+$202

Up$260.3139.2¢-$260.31

stepahead

Down

Invested

$427.61

Value

$418.95

PnL

-$8.66

Record

55%

4400-3587 (7987)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$314.6

Value

$397.01

PnL

+$82.41

Record

50%

4397-4477 (8874)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$306.49

Value

$301.21

PnL

-$5.28

Record

46%

770-906 (1676)

Both legs:

Down$143.2247.5¢+$157.99

Up$163.2739.8¢-$163.27

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$411.63

Value

$305.01

PnL

-$106.62

Record

52%

2184-2035 (4219)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$348.06

Value

$297.17

PnL

-$48.47

Record

52%

855-787 (1642)

almach

Down

Invested

$540.96

Value

$269.95

PnL

-$161.96

Record

51%

1399-1354 (2753)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$283.22

Value

—

PnL

-$283.22

Record

46%

1041-1218 (2259)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$202.19

Value

$250.25

PnL

+$62.05

Record

53%

4528-3944 (8472)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$218.33

Value

$202.21

PnL

-$16.12

Record

51%

345-325 (670)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$161.36

Value

$182.48

PnL

+$38.53

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$2,007

Value

—

PnL

-$16

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

OhioAICTR

Invested

$148.09

Value

—

PnL

-$137.08

Record

50%

745-731 (1476)

Smart Money Signal

32 of 73 top traders (44%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed32 hold an outcome priced under 50%48 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x59dcfc9c...78f90f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794682200

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.3K

+$32.88

Bonereaper

Down — $1.5K

+$436.29

blue.birds

Down — $972.6

+$48.63

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$26.52

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $756.66

-$109

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$58.46

mo-money

Down — $725.74

-$185.05

bosona

Down — $610.89

-$200.09

Trade on Polymarket