Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET

39 of 57 top Polymarket traders hold Up (68%) · Up at 100¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$713.81

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 99.5¢

+51% since entry · 39 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

39 of 57 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares10,759

Combined PnL-$94.39

Up39 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares14,278

Combined PnL+$808.2

Down — 32%Up — 68%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.4K	+$56	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$72.91	41% 247-358 (605)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.42	98% 3651-75 (3726)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$946.5	-$0.7	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
machinelearned	Upavg 87.6¢	$816.38	$923.35	+$106.97	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$630.48	$633.67	+$3.18	99% 822-7 (829)
ST stepahead	Upavg 65.2¢	$612.17	$619.89	+$7.71	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 74.9¢	$524.43	$527.81	+$3.38	32% 670-1442 (2112)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 60.9¢	$531.13	$518.29	-$12.85	47% 991-1132 (2123)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.5¢	$598.82	$492.07	+$0.35	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 74.6¢	$470.17	$483.14	+$12.97	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 66¢	$354.37	$408.76	+$54.38	60% 1005-684 (1689)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 57.6¢	$222.93	$275.95	+$53.02	52% 850-783 (1633)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 86.1¢	$235.27	$201.11	-$34.16	44% 716-912 (1628)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.2¢	$215.48	$196.78	-$18.71	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 55.4¢	$142.9	$192.15	+$49.25	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
AL almach	Upavg 57.1¢	$402.2	$183.89	+$257.12	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
PA Papeasy	Upavg 63.1¢	$151.21	$165.95	+$14.74	50% 3827-3775 (7602)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 71.7¢	$180.2	$151.72	-$28.49	46% 764-903 (1667)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 51.4¢	$86.18	$146.65	+$60.47	50% 746-753 (1499)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.6¢	$112.09	$116.31	+$4.22	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
BO bosona	Upavg 98¢	$1.2K	$106.61	+$209.12	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 75.5¢	$99.45	$100	+$0.55	51% 338-323 (661)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 55.5¢	$108.63	$94.25	-$14.38	53% 4524-3941 (8465)
OhioAI<$100	Upavg 59.6¢	$68.28	$78.01	+$24.12	50% 739-728 (1467)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,950

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$56

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$72.91

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,256.23

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.42

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$946.5

PnL

-$0.7

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

machinelearned

Invested

$816.38

Value

$923.35

PnL

+$106.97

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

THG.

Invested

$630.48

Value

$633.67

PnL

+$3.18

Record

99%

822-7 (829)

stepahead

Invested

$612.17

Value

$619.89

PnL

+$7.71

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

ply-pm0

Invested

$524.43

Value

$527.81

PnL

+$3.38

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$531.13

Value

$518.29

PnL

-$12.85

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$598.82

Value

$492.07

PnL

+$0.35

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

blue.birds

Invested

$470.17

Value

$483.14

PnL

+$12.97

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

Bonereaper

Invested

$354.37

Value

$408.76

PnL

+$54.38

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

wzbbb

Invested

$222.93

Value

$275.95

PnL

+$53.02

Record

52%

850-783 (1633)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$235.27

Value

$201.11

PnL

-$34.16

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$215.48

Value

$196.78

PnL

-$18.71

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

asdcaxz

Invested

$142.9

Value

$192.15

PnL

+$49.25

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

almach

Invested

$402.2

Value

$183.89

PnL

+$257.12

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

Papeasy

Invested

$151.21

Value

$165.95

PnL

+$14.74

Record

50%

3827-3775 (7602)

GoodFallen

Invested

$180.2

Value

$151.72

PnL

-$28.49

Record

46%

764-903 (1667)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$86.18

Value

$146.65

PnL

+$60.47

Record

50%

746-753 (1499)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$112.09

Value

$116.31

PnL

+$4.22

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

bosona

Invested

$1,212.45

Value

$106.61

PnL

+$209.12

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$99.45

Value

$100

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

338-323 (661)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$108.63

Value

$94.25

PnL

-$14.38

Record

53%

4524-3941 (8465)

OhioAI<$100

Invested

$68.28

Value

$78.01

PnL

+$24.12

Record

50%

739-728 (1467)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

39 of 57 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.