Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 70%
6 arb excluded
$27.3K
-$349.81
Smart Money Signal
40 of 57 top traders (70%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$50.26 | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$49.21 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$16 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 37.7¢ | $845.75 | $1.1K | +$295.39 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 46.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $930 | +$8.9 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $465 | $930 | +$471.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $460 | — | -$462.9 | |
MO mo-money | Downavg 72.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.0K | +$357.3 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $738.52 | $745.98 | +$7.46 | 99% 822-7 (829) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 57.8¢ | $636.03 | $671.75 | +$35.72 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
AL almach | Downavg 51.4¢ | $983.46 | $699.36 | +$326.14 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 56.4¢ | $514.23 | $557.61 | +$43.38 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
BO bosona | Downavg 74.7¢ | $1.1K | $730.46 | -$23.33 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $591.56 | $490.79 | +$26.29 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $467.05 | $899.21 | +$432.16 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $403.87 | $462.75 | +$58.88 | 32% 670-1442 (2112) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 61.7¢ | $391.01 | $394.97 | +$3.97 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.7¢ | $243.62 | $394.97 | +$151.35 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.4¢ | $147.39 | — | -$147.39 | |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 62¢ | $333.93 | $329.62 | +$78.73 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 42.4¢ | $244.73 | $326.83 | +$84.16 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 54.4¢ | $297.83 | $320.16 | +$22.33 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 59.3¢ | $299.21 | $282.83 | -$16.38 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
 ohioism | Downavg 73.4¢ | $205.42 | $227.03 | +$23.72 | 47% 2042-2277 (4319) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 56.8¢ | $377.98 | — | -$377.98 | 46% 1036-1214 (2250) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 70¢ | $149.14 | $197.5 | +$48.36 | 46% 681-811 (1492) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 67.8¢ | $206.82 | $165 | -$41.83 | 53% 4524-3941 (8465) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $166.63 | $170.36 | +$3.73 | 50% 746-753 (1499) |
Invested
$8,752
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$50.26
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$49.21
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$1,276
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$16
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$845.75
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$295.39
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$1,206.79
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$950
Value
$930
PnL
+$8.9
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,246.46
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$357.3
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$738.52
Value
$745.98
PnL
+$7.46
Record
99%
822-7 (829)
Invested
$636.03
Value
$671.75
PnL
+$35.72
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
Invested
$983.46
Value
$699.36
PnL
+$326.14
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$514.23
Value
$557.61
PnL
+$43.38
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$1,063.55
Value
$730.46
PnL
-$23.33
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$591.56
Value
$490.79
PnL
+$26.29
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$467.05
Value
$899.21
PnL
+$432.16
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$403.87
Value
$462.75
PnL
+$58.88
Record
32%
670-1442 (2112)
Invested
$391.01
Value
$394.97
PnL
+$3.97
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$333.93
Value
$329.62
PnL
+$78.73
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$244.73
Value
$326.83
PnL
+$84.16
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Invested
$297.83
Value
$320.16
PnL
+$22.33
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Invested
$299.21
Value
$282.83
PnL
-$16.38
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
ohioismInvested
$205.42
Value
$227.03
PnL
+$23.72
Record
47%
2042-2277 (4319)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$377.98
Value
—
PnL
-$377.98
Record
46%
1036-1214 (2250)
Invested
$149.14
Value
$197.5
PnL
+$48.36
Record
46%
681-811 (1492)
FairValueMachineInvested
$206.82
Value
$165
PnL
-$41.83
Record
53%
4524-3941 (8465)
Invested
$166.63
Value
$170.36
PnL
+$3.73
Record
50%
746-753 (1499)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.1K
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Down — $1.0K
THG.
Down — $745.98
blue.birds
Down — $671.75
almach
Down — $699.36