Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 80%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$67.7

Smart Money Signal

35 of 45 top traders (78%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up35 traders

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares23,711

Combined PnL+$878.75

Down10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,910

Combined PnL-$811.05

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.4K	-$22.54	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$6.09	41% 247-358 (605)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$33.85	99% 822-7 (829)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$23.76	98% 3651-75 (3726)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$1.85	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$472.5	—	-$473.15
AL almach	Upavg 69.2¢	$536.24	$770.16	+$233.92	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 64.5¢	$673.32	$569.23	-$104.04	47% 991-1132 (2123)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$572.12	$495.65	-$11.56	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$251.58	$495.65	+$242.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$252.57	—	-$254.23
BO bosona	Upavg 81.9¢	$514.46	$628.4	+$113.94	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$458.07	$481.23	+$23.17	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$270.94	$481.23	+$210.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.4¢	$187.12	—	-$187.12
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 35.1¢	$312.65	$465.92	+$180.76	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 57.3¢	$522.62	$419.68	-$40.35	60% 1005-684 (1689)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 48.4¢	$242.24	$359.3	+$150.05	44% 716-912 (1628)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$308.29	$326.26	+$17.97	46% 764-903 (1667)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$179.56	$326.26	+$146.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.9¢	$128.72	—	-$128.72
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 65.6¢	$346.88	$304.49	-$42.38	32% 670-1442 (2112)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 57.3¢	$261.38	$235.36	-$26.02	52% 850-783 (1633)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.3¢	$134.76	$235.36	+$100.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$126.63	—	-$126.63
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 84.3¢	$317.79	$240.36	-$77.44	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.3¢	$202.62	$240.36	+$37.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$115.18	—	-$115.18
BL blue.birdsCTR	Downavg 29.6¢	$397.06	—	-$223.6	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 55.5¢	$331.61	—	-$331.61	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 72¢	$256.49	$200	-$56.49	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$206.53	$219.46	+$12.93	50% 746-753 (1499)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$109.45	$219.46	+$110
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$97.07	—	-$97.07
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 73.5¢	$200.24	$239	+$38.76	51% 765-749 (1514)
OhioAI	Upavg 51.2¢	$166.42	$181.13	+$19.91	50% 739-728 (1467)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 74.5¢	$178.81	$158.4	-$20.41	48% 711-764 (1475)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 37.9¢	$154.52	$139.06	-$15.46	53% 4524-3941 (8465)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$75	$139.06	+$64.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$79.53	—	-$79.53

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,712

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$22.54

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$6.09

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

THG.

Invested

$3,351.14

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$33.85

Record

99%

822-7 (829)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,274.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$23.76

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$1.85

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$472.550¢-$473.15

almach

Invested

$536.24

Value

$770.16

PnL

+$233.92

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$673.32

Value

$569.23

PnL

-$104.04

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$572.12

Value

$495.65

PnL

-$11.56

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Up$251.5850.8¢+$242.67

Down$252.5749.3¢-$254.23

bosona

Invested

$514.46

Value

$628.4

PnL

+$113.94

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$458.07

Value

$481.23

PnL

+$23.17

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

Both legs:

Up$270.9456.3¢+$210.29

Down$187.1244.4¢-$187.12

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$312.65

Value

$465.92

PnL

+$180.76

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

Bonereaper

Invested

$522.62

Value

$419.68

PnL

-$40.35

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$242.24

Value

$359.3

PnL

+$150.05

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$308.29

Value

$326.26

PnL

+$17.97

Record

46%

764-903 (1667)

Both legs:

Up$179.5655¢+$146.69

Down$128.7245.9¢-$128.72

ply-pm0

Invested

$346.88

Value

$304.49

PnL

-$42.38

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$261.38

Value

$235.36

PnL

-$26.02

Record

52%

850-783 (1633)

Both legs:

Up$134.7657.3¢+$100.61

Down$126.6354.5¢-$126.63

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$317.79

Value

$240.36

PnL

-$77.44

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

Both legs:

Up$202.6284.3¢+$37.74

Down$115.1859.6¢-$115.18

blue.birdsCTR

Down

Invested

$397.06

Value

—

PnL

-$223.6

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

machinelearnedCTR

Down

Invested

$331.61

Value

—

PnL

-$331.61

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

asdcaxz

Invested

$256.49

Value

$200

PnL

-$56.49

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Invested

$206.53

Value

$219.46

PnL

+$12.93

Record

50%

746-753 (1499)

Both legs:

Up$109.4549.9¢+$110

Down$97.0754.7¢-$97.07

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$200.24

Value

$239

PnL

+$38.76

Record

51%

765-749 (1514)

OhioAI

Invested

$166.42

Value

$181.13

PnL

+$19.91

Record

50%

739-728 (1467)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$178.81

Value

$158.4

PnL

-$20.41

Record

48%

711-764 (1475)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$154.52

Value

$139.06

PnL

-$15.46

Record

53%

4524-3941 (8465)

Both legs:

Up$7553.9¢+$64.07

Down$79.5337.9¢-$79.53

Smart Money Signal

35 of 45 top traders (78%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe61c6ede...0a65e3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794680700

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.4K

-$22.54

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$6.09

THG.

Up — $3.4K

+$33.85

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$23.76

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$1.85

almach

Up — $770.16

+$233.92

CrouchPredictions

Up — $569.23

-$104.04

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$11.56

bosona

Up — $628.4

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded