Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 49% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Up 49%
2 arb excluded
$24.8K
$-7.3K
Smart Money Signal
29 of 59 top traders (49%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | $8.7K | +$163.77 | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | -$66.7 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$34.2 | 99% 822-7 (829) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 40.2¢ | $726.8 | $1.0K | +$320.51 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 68.9¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
AL almach | Upavg 29.6¢ | $449.64 | $1.0K | +$573.8 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 39.9¢ | $706.97 | $903.97 | +$197 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Downavg 56.2¢ | $960.52 | — | -$911.58 | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
GA gansinimenCTR | Downavg 65.2¢ | $678.49 | — | -$678.49 | 51% 338-323 (661) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 53.1¢ | $547.35 | $569.66 | +$22.31 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 67¢ | $469.26 | — | -$468.01 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 61.5¢ | $525.32 | — | -$525.32 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 48.3¢ | $247.72 | $512.88 | +$265.17 | 27% 474-1260 (1734) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50.4¢ | $609.53 | — | -$456.02 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 74.4¢ | $450.48 | $402.84 | -$47.65 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 74.4¢ | $312.33 | — | -$312.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.3¢ | $138.15 | $402.84 | +$264.68 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 54.4¢ | $407.71 | — | -$369.51 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $399.72 | $361.94 | -$37.78 | 46% 681-811 (1492) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $343.53 | $347 | +$3.47 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 80.8¢ | $420.54 | — | -$418.29 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 65.1¢ | $240.98 | $319.99 | +$79.01 | 51% 767-738 (1505) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 75.3¢ | $308.2 | $295.15 | -$13.05 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Upavg 25.3¢ | $134.15 | $283.37 | +$166.97 | 44% 2041-2641 (4682) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894CTR | Downavg 60.2¢ | $312.99 | — | -$312.99 | 51% 754-731 (1485) |
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $216.68 | $249.36 | +$32.69 | 51% 765-749 (1514) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 42.2¢ | $263.89 | — | -$263.89 | 53% 4524-3941 (8465) |
Invested
$8,973
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$163.77
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$66.7
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$3,385.8
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$34.2
Record
99%
822-7 (829)
Invested
$726.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$320.51
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$1,064.06
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
Invested
$449.64
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$573.8
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$706.97
Value
$903.97
PnL
+$197
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$960.52
Value
—
PnL
-$911.58
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$678.49
Value
—
PnL
-$678.49
Record
51%
338-323 (661)
Invested
$547.35
Value
$569.66
PnL
+$22.31
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$469.26
Value
—
PnL
-$468.01
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$525.32
Value
—
PnL
-$525.32
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
NIULAI4Invested
$247.72
Value
$512.88
PnL
+$265.17
Record
27%
474-1260 (1734)
Invested
$609.53
Value
—
PnL
-$456.02
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$450.48
Value
$402.84
PnL
-$47.65
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Both legs:
Invested
$407.71
Value
—
PnL
-$369.51
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Invested
$399.72
Value
$361.94
PnL
-$37.78
Record
46%
681-811 (1492)
Invested
$343.53
Value
$347
PnL
+$3.47
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$420.54
Value
—
PnL
-$418.29
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$240.98
Value
$319.99
PnL
+$79.01
Record
51%
767-738 (1505)
Invested
$308.2
Value
$295.15
PnL
-$13.05
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$134.15
Value
$283.37
PnL
+$166.97
Record
44%
2041-2641 (4682)
Invested
$312.99
Value
—
PnL
-$312.99
Record
51%
754-731 (1485)
Invested
$216.68
Value
$249.36
PnL
+$32.69
Record
51%
765-749 (1514)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$263.89
Value
—
PnL
-$263.89
Record
53%
4524-3941 (8465)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.7K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.8K
THG.
Up — $3.4K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.0K
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0
almach
Up — $1.0K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $903.97
Bonereaper
CTRDown — $0
gansinimen
CTRDown — $0
stepahead
Up — $569.66