Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 80%
2 arb excluded
$30.1K
$469.63
Smart Money Signal
44 of 55 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | +$9.01 | 52% 1374-1272 (2646) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.9K | $8.5K | -$13.53 | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$41.22 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$14.91 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 79.6¢ | $717.85 | $817.76 | +$100.01 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51¢ | $530.91 | $500.22 | +$2.03 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
BO bosona | Downavg 87.3¢ | $396.53 | $454.24 | +$57.7 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 69.8¢ | $414.13 | $409.11 | -$4.77 | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.4¢ | $317.69 | $344.27 | +$26.58 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77¢ | $300.37 | $288.33 | -$12.04 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $293.44 | $289.49 | -$3.95 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 70.3¢ | $281 | $400 | +$119 | 46% 1036-1214 (2250) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $196.45 | $226.76 | +$30.31 | 51% 754-731 (1485) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.6¢ | $144.12 | $226.76 | +$82.64 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 30.4¢ | $52.32 | — | -$52.32 | |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 70¢ | $173.95 | $197.41 | +$23.46 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 79.6¢ | $172.82 | $187.82 | +$15 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 70¢ | $137.54 | $196.47 | +$58.93 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 58.3¢ | $173.2 | $175.02 | +$1.82 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 76.9¢ | $213.97 | $160.9 | -$31.98 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
AL almach | Downavg 71.3¢ | $121.97 | $170.95 | +$48.98 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $104.63 | $106.03 | +$1.39 | 48% 711-764 (1475) |
 OhioAI<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $77.43 | $98.99 | +$21.56 | 50% 739-728 (1467) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 72.1¢ | $73.4 | $86.69 | +$13.29 | 47% 2135-2370 (4505) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $68.14 | $77 | +$8.86 | 52% 2630-2425 (5055) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 81.7¢ | $71.49 | $74.62 | +$3.13 | 51% 829-786 (1615) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 27.8¢ | $148.24 | — | -$107.38 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
Invested
$8,997.01
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$9.01
Record
52%
1374-1272 (2646)
Invested
$8,948
Value
$8.5K
PnL
-$13.53
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$41.22
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$1,302.18
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$14.91
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$717.85
Value
$817.76
PnL
+$100.01
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$530.91
Value
$500.22
PnL
+$2.03
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$396.53
Value
$454.24
PnL
+$57.7
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$414.13
Value
$409.11
PnL
-$4.77
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$317.69
Value
$344.27
PnL
+$26.58
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Invested
$300.37
Value
$288.33
PnL
-$12.04
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$293.44
Value
$289.49
PnL
-$3.95
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
machinelearnedInvested
$281
Value
$400
PnL
+$119
Record
46%
1036-1214 (2250)
Invested
$196.45
Value
$226.76
PnL
+$30.31
Record
51%
754-731 (1485)
Both legs:
Invested
$173.95
Value
$197.41
PnL
+$23.46
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
Invested
$172.82
Value
$187.82
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$137.54
Value
$196.47
PnL
+$58.93
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$173.2
Value
$175.02
PnL
+$1.82
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$213.97
Value
$160.9
PnL
-$31.98
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
Invested
$121.97
Value
$170.95
PnL
+$48.98
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$104.63
Value
$106.03
PnL
+$1.39
Record
48%
711-764 (1475)
OhioAI<$100Invested
$77.43
Value
$98.99
PnL
+$21.56
Record
50%
739-728 (1467)
Invested
$73.4
Value
$86.69
PnL
+$13.29
Record
47%
2135-2370 (4505)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$68.14
Value
$77
PnL
+$8.86
Record
52%
2630-2425 (5055)
Invested
$71.49
Value
$74.62
PnL
+$3.13
Record
51%
829-786 (1615)
Invested
$148.24
Value
—
PnL
-$107.38
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.5K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $817.76
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.22
bosona
Down — $454.24
Bonereaper
Down — $409.11
stepahead
Down — $344.27
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $288.33