Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Signal

39 of 58 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares13,291

Combined PnL$-9.0K

Up39 traders

Total Value$21.0K

Total Shares20,998

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.1K	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$39.9	41% 247-358 (605)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$33.94	99% 822-7 (829)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$17	98% 3651-75 (3726)
BO bosona	Upavg 82.3¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$169.44	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
MO mo-money	Upavg 79.1¢	$857.46	$1.0K	+$192.46	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$905	-$1.4	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.5¢	$795.76	$824.74	+$28.98	60% 1005-684 (1689)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.4¢	$715.22	$693.97	-$21.25	32% 670-1442 (2112)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 76.2¢	$707.03	$569.9	-$137.13	47% 991-1132 (2123)
AL almach	Upavg 88.9¢	$1.0K	$568.73	+$52.23	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.9¢	$633.25	$481.8	+$0.04	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 52.8¢	$401.22	$454.69	+$53.48	44% 716-912 (1628)
ST stepahead	Upavg 60.4¢	$375.59	$403.97	+$47.34	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 53.4¢	$423.68	$400.78	-$22.9	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 48.6¢	$196.7	$355.05	+$182.17	47% 2092-2317 (4409)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 56.1¢	$298.43	$330.41	+$66.25	52% 850-783 (1633)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 56.7¢	$349.66	$322.5	-$21.87	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 71¢	$290.47	$302	+$11.53	50% 746-753 (1499)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 84.9¢	$303.17	$219.56	-$52.05	62% 3938-2372 (6310)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 61.5¢	$149.88	$232.17	+$82.29	46% 681-811 (1492)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 61.5¢	$158.98	$179.97	+$20.99	53% 4524-3941 (8465)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$189.66	$168.51	-$21.14	51% 338-323 (661)
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.6¢	$84.64	—	-$84.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$105.02	$168.51	+$63.5
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Upavg 53.3¢	$120.16	$182	+$61.83	40% 738-1100 (1838)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 62.1¢	$175.69	$160	-$15.69	52% 2174-2029 (4203)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,874

Value

—

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$39.9

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

THG.

Invested

$3,360.03

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$33.94

Record

99%

822-7 (829)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,683

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$17

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

bosona

Invested

$1,009.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$169.44

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

mo-money

Invested

$857.46

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$192.46

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$905

PnL

-$1.4

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Bonereaper

Invested

$795.76

Value

$824.74

PnL

+$28.98

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

ply-pm0

Invested

$715.22

Value

$693.97

PnL

-$21.25

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$707.03

Value

$569.9

PnL

-$137.13

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

almach

Invested

$1,045.09

Value

$568.73

PnL

+$52.23

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$633.25

Value

$481.8

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$401.22

Value

$454.69

PnL

+$53.48

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

stepahead

Invested

$375.59

Value

$403.97

PnL

+$47.34

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

blue.birds

Invested

$423.68

Value

$400.78

PnL

-$22.9

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$196.7

Value

$355.05

PnL

+$182.17

Record

47%

2092-2317 (4409)

wzbbb

Invested

$298.43

Value

$330.41

PnL

+$66.25

Record

52%

850-783 (1633)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$349.66

Value

$322.5

PnL

-$21.87

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$290.47

Value

$302

PnL

+$11.53

Record

50%

746-753 (1499)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$303.17

Value

$219.56

PnL

-$52.05

Record

62%

3938-2372 (6310)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$149.88

Value

$232.17

PnL

+$82.29

Record

46%

681-811 (1492)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$158.98

Value

$179.97

PnL

+$20.99

Record

53%

4524-3941 (8465)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$189.66

Value

$168.51

PnL

-$21.14

Record

51%

338-323 (661)

Both legs:

Down$84.6446.6¢-$84.64

Up$105.0262.3¢+$63.5

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Invested

$120.16

Value

$182

PnL

+$61.83

Record

40%

738-1100 (1838)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$175.69

Value

$160

PnL

-$15.69

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

Smart Money Signal

39 of 58 top traders (67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7ead29bd...04fc85

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794679800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.1K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$39.9

THG.

Up — $3.4K

+$33.94

hoodquant

Up — $1.7K

+$17

bosona

Up — $1.2K

+$169.44

mo-money

Up — $1.0K

+$192.46

soswald1

Up — $905

-$1.4

Bonereaper

Up — $824.74

+$28.98

ply-pm0

Up — $693.97

-$21.25

CrouchPredictions

Up — $569.9

-$137.13

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