Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET

Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Signal

44 of 55 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,695

Combined PnL$-8.2K

Up44 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares15,028

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down — 20%Up — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	—	$-8.0K	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$127.16	41% 247-358 (605)
machinelearned	Upavg 71.2¢	$915.62	$1.3K	+$345.55	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
BO bosona	Upavg 60.1¢	$763.55	$1.2K	+$481.2	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 53.7¢	$499.81	$621.06	+$121.26	47% 991-1132 (2123)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 76.4¢	$618.29	$604.11	-$14.18	44% 716-912 (1628)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 72.1¢	$524.18	$530.95	+$6.77	32% 670-1442 (2112)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 67.7¢	$607.97	$499.36	-$108.61	60% 1005-684 (1689)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 54.7¢	$669.21	$505.89	+$16.16	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 73.3¢	$485.71	$464.99	-$20.72	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
ST stepahead	Upavg 69.9¢	$435.62	$467.98	+$32.36	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
AL almach	Upavg 97¢	$1.6K	$500	+$221.72	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
MO mo-money	Upavg 55.5¢	$492.64	$309.74	+$320.55	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 57.7¢	$201.67	$264.67	+$63	46% 764-903 (1667)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 55.7¢	$186.18	$244.31	+$58.13	48% 711-764 (1475)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 69.6¢	$202.27	$239.26	+$36.99	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 59.3¢	$212.96	$227	+$14.04	51% 338-323 (661)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.3¢	$134.66	$227	+$92.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.6¢	$78.3	—	-$78.3
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 63.4¢	$219.63	$176.19	-$39.2	52% 850-783 (1633)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 79.6¢	$202.44	$153.74	-$48.7	51% 754-731 (1485)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 73¢	$167.79	$204.98	+$37.2	47% 2092-2317 (4409)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 58¢	$119.26	$146.71	+$27.45	53% 4524-3941 (8465)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Upavg 67.7¢	$162.37	$144.94	-$17.43	50% 746-753 (1499)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 63¢	$128.54	$128.92	+$1.58	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 61.5¢	$93.29	$129.99	+$36.71	47% 2135-2370 (4505)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 83¢	$131.01	$121.02	-$9.99	51% 765-749 (1514)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,687

Value

—

PnL

$-8.0K

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$127.16

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

machinelearned

Invested

$915.62

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$345.55

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

bosona

Invested

$763.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$481.2

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$499.81

Value

$621.06

PnL

+$121.26

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$618.29

Value

$604.11

PnL

-$14.18

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

ply-pm0

Invested

$524.18

Value

$530.95

PnL

+$6.77

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

Bonereaper

Invested

$607.97

Value

$499.36

PnL

-$108.61

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$669.21

Value

$505.89

PnL

+$16.16

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

blue.birds

Invested

$485.71

Value

$464.99

PnL

-$20.72

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

stepahead

Invested

$435.62

Value

$467.98

PnL

+$32.36

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

almach

Invested

$1,638.71

Value

$500

PnL

+$221.72

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

mo-money

Invested

$492.64

Value

$309.74

PnL

+$320.55

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

GoodFallen

Invested

$201.67

Value

$264.67

PnL

+$63

Record

46%

764-903 (1667)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$186.18

Value

$244.31

PnL

+$58.13

Record

48%

711-764 (1475)

asdcaxz

Invested

$202.27

Value

$239.26

PnL

+$36.99

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$212.96

Value

$227

PnL

+$14.04

Record

51%

338-323 (661)

Both legs:

Up$134.6659.3¢+$92.34

Down$78.335.6¢-$78.3

wzbbb

Invested

$219.63

Value

$176.19

PnL

-$39.2

Record

52%

850-783 (1633)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$202.44

Value

$153.74

PnL

-$48.7

Record

51%

754-731 (1485)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$167.79

Value

$204.98

PnL

+$37.2

Record

47%

2092-2317 (4409)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$119.26

Value

$146.71

PnL

+$27.45

Record

53%

4524-3941 (8465)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Invested

$162.37

Value

$144.94

PnL

-$17.43

Record

50%

746-753 (1499)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$128.54

Value

$128.92

PnL

+$1.58

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$93.29

Value

$129.99

PnL

+$36.71

Record

47%

2135-2370 (4505)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$131.01

Value

$121.02

PnL

-$9.99

Record

51%

765-749 (1514)

Smart Money Signal

44 of 55 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8da7cf86...dc7377

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794679500

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.0K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$127.16

machinelearned

Up — $1.3K

+$345.55

bosona

Up — $1.2K

+$481.2

CrouchPredictions

Up — $621.06

+$121.26

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $604.11

-$14.18

ply-pm0

Up — $530.95

+$6.77

Bonereaper

Up — $499.36

-$108.61

ByteBadger92

Up — $505.89

+$16.16

blue.birds

Up — $464.99

-$20.72

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