Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
61
Up 44%
3 arb excluded
$14.2K
$-12.1K
Smart Money Signal
27 of 61 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.1K | -$503.77 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 50¢ | $595.38 | $1.2K | +$569.69 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
AL almach | Downavg 45.2¢ | $650.94 | $1.1K | +$496.64 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$19.9 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $462.5 | — | -$455.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $475 | $950 | +$475 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $846.81 | $857 | +$10.19 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 61.1¢ | $897.74 | — | -$897.74 | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 55.9¢ | $587.79 | — | -$587.79 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 67¢ | $452.22 | — | -$425.22 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 50¢ | $423.7 | $571.24 | +$147.54 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Upavg 74.2¢ | $547.45 | — | -$547.45 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 54.3¢ | $608.21 | — | -$469.22 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
 machinelearnedCTR | Upavg 91.7¢ | $722 | — | -$722 | 46% 1036-1214 (2250) |
BO bosonaCTR | Upavg 83¢ | $815.5 | — | -$815.5 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 71.2¢ | $266.49 | — | -$253.84 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 51.7¢ | $370.16 | $403.85 | +$33.78 | 51% 338-323 (661) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $494.72 | $395.09 | +$41.86 | 32% 670-1442 (2112) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $327.88 | $384.94 | +$57.05 | 27% 474-1260 (1734) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 55.4¢ | $317.73 | $360.28 | +$42.55 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 50.6¢ | $345.99 | $327.99 | -$13.69 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 61.7¢ | $345.22 | $298.33 | +$13.11 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 60.4¢ | $196.69 | $259.45 | +$62.76 | 47% 2092-2317 (4409) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 37.6¢ | $128.4 | $258.69 | +$130.29 | 48% 711-764 (1475) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 59.8¢ | $214.6 | $217.57 | +$3.74 | 67% 3341-1667 (5008) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $209.3 | $215.92 | +$6.63 | 51% 754-731 (1485) |
Invested
$8,807
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$503.77
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$595.38
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$569.69
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$650.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$496.64
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$19.9
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Both legs:
Invested
$846.81
Value
$857
PnL
+$10.19
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$897.74
Value
—
PnL
-$897.74
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$587.79
Value
—
PnL
-$587.79
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$452.22
Value
—
PnL
-$425.22
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$423.7
Value
$571.24
PnL
+$147.54
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$547.45
Value
—
PnL
-$547.45
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Invested
$608.21
Value
—
PnL
-$469.22
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
machinelearnedCTRInvested
$722
Value
—
PnL
-$722
Record
46%
1036-1214 (2250)
Invested
$815.5
Value
—
PnL
-$815.5
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$266.49
Value
—
PnL
-$253.84
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
Invested
$370.16
Value
$403.85
PnL
+$33.78
Record
51%
338-323 (661)
Invested
$494.72
Value
$395.09
PnL
+$41.86
Record
32%
670-1442 (2112)
NIULAI4Invested
$327.88
Value
$384.94
PnL
+$57.05
Record
27%
474-1260 (1734)
Invested
$317.73
Value
$360.28
PnL
+$42.55
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
Invested
$345.99
Value
$327.99
PnL
-$13.69
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$345.22
Value
$298.33
PnL
+$13.11
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$196.69
Value
$259.45
PnL
+$62.76
Record
47%
2092-2317 (4409)
Invested
$128.4
Value
$258.69
PnL
+$130.29
Record
48%
711-764 (1475)
Invested
$214.6
Value
$217.57
PnL
+$3.74
Record
67%
3341-1667 (5008)
Invested
$209.3
Value
$215.92
PnL
+$6.63
Record
51%
754-731 (1485)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.1K
mo-money
Down — $1.2K
almach
Down — $1.1K
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $857
Bonereaper
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
CrouchPredictions
Down — $571.24