Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.7K

Combined PnL

-$271.72

Smart Money Signal

45 of 61 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up45 traders

Total Value$27.6K

Total Shares27,611

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,100

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	$8.3K	+$62.43	54% 396-336 (732)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$46.78	41% 247-358 (605)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$34.13	99% 822-7 (829)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.03	98% 3651-75 (3726)
MO mo-money	Upavg 98¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	+$92.69	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
BO bosona	Upavg 95.8¢	$1.4K	$999.99	+$122.42	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
AL almach	Upavg 98¢	$1.4K	$999.99	+$32.57	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$5.9	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.1¢	$650.52	$748.44	+$97.92	47% 991-1132 (2123)
ST stepahead	Upavg 76.2¢	$663.12	$673.69	+$10.57	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 53.1¢	$563.04	$499.98	-$5.51	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 77.9¢	$500.19	$496.95	-$3.24	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 76.5¢	$345.72	$451.73	+$106.01	50% 1880-1856 (3736)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 34.1¢	$780	—	-$741.87	60% 1005-684 (1689)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 82.6¢	$415.09	$356	+$6.87	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 81.2¢	$274.93	$296.9	+$23.88	44% 716-912 (1628)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 92.7¢	$238.26	$211.92	-$26.35	32% 670-1442 (2112)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 96.7¢	$175.63	$135.05	-$40.58	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
└ Up leg	Upavg 96.7¢	$130.61	$135.05	+$4.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.4¢	$45.02	—	-$45.02
pspspsps5	Upavg 96.6¢	$162.88	$164.4	+$1.52	33% 1018-2114 (3132)
AL Alpharo28	Upavg 78.4¢	$117.59	$149.99	+$32.4	56% 261-207 (468)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 93.9¢	$143.39	$148.23	+$4.84	67% 3341-1667 (5008)
HS Hsilverbasher	Upavg 87.8¢	$125.42	$142.91	+$17.49	51% 344-337 (681)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 82.4¢	$122.91	$131.59	+$8.68	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Upavg 80.4¢	$106.06	$122.52	+$16.46	59% 934-650 (1584)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 68.9¢	$112.14	$133.53	+$21.4	51% 754-731 (1485)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,921

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$62.43

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$46.78

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

THG.

Invested

$3,378.87

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$34.13

Record

99%

822-7 (829)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,388.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.03

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

mo-money

Invested

$1,305.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$92.69

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

bosona

Invested

$1,399.44

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$122.42

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

almach

Invested

$1,443.65

Value

$999.99

PnL

+$32.57

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$5.9

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$650.52

Value

$748.44

PnL

+$97.92

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

stepahead

Invested

$663.12

Value

$673.69

PnL

+$10.57

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$563.04

Value

$499.98

PnL

-$5.51

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

blue.birds

Invested

$500.19

Value

$496.95

PnL

-$3.24

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$345.72

Value

$451.73

PnL

+$106.01

Record

50%

1880-1856 (3736)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$780

Value

—

PnL

-$741.87

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$415.09

Value

$356

PnL

+$6.87

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$274.93

Value

$296.9

PnL

+$23.88

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

ply-pm0

Invested

$238.26

Value

$211.92

PnL

-$26.35

Record

32%

670-1442 (2112)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$175.63

Value

$135.05

PnL

-$40.58

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

Both legs:

Up$130.6196.7¢+$4.44

Down$45.024.4¢-$45.02

pspspsps5

Invested

$162.88

Value

$164.4

PnL

+$1.52

Record

33%

1018-2114 (3132)

Alpharo28

Invested

$117.59

Value

$149.99

PnL

+$32.4

Record

56%

261-207 (468)

asdaefef

Invested

$143.39

Value

$148.23

PnL

+$4.84

Record

67%

3341-1667 (5008)

Hsilverbasher

Invested

$125.42

Value

$142.91

PnL

+$17.49

Record

51%

344-337 (681)

asdcaxz

Invested

$122.91

Value

$131.59

PnL

+$8.68

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Invested

$106.06

Value

$122.52

PnL

+$16.46

Record

59%

934-650 (1584)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$112.14

Value

$133.53

PnL

+$21.4

Record

51%

754-731 (1485)

Smart Money Signal

45 of 61 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfd38d66c...25f531

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794678900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.3K

+$62.43

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$46.78

THG.

Up — $3.4K

+$34.13

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

+$14.03

mo-money

Up — $1.0K

+$92.69

bosona

Up — $999.99

+$122.42

almach

Up — $999.99

+$32.57

soswald1

Up — $950

+$5.9

CrouchPredictions

Up — $748.44

+$97.92

stepahead

Up — $673.69

+$10.57

Trade on Polymarket