Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Down 77%
4 arb excluded
$37.0K
$475.04
Smart Money Signal
43 of 55 top traders (78%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%26 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $9.0K | $9.0K | -$4.77 | 52% 1374-1272 (2646) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.1K | -$21.6 | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$74.95 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$20.23 | 99% 822-7 (829) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$26.29 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
BO bosona | Downavg 78¢ | $1.9K | $1.4K | -$60.83 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 77¢ | $977.62 | $1.2K | +$269.82 | 46% 1036-1214 (2250) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$6.33 | 51% 3318-3179 (6497) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 77.2¢ | $799.48 | $946.45 | +$146.96 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 59.7¢ | $958.72 | $843.27 | -$115.45 | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
AL almach | Downavg 89.4¢ | $1.4K | $764.88 | +$114.76 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 85.5¢ | $793.32 | $677.06 | -$116.21 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $562.3 | $503.28 | +$1.88 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.9¢ | $345.79 | $356.8 | +$11.01 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 81.2¢ | $425.54 | $334.17 | -$88.89 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 70.6¢ | $349.44 | $322.82 | -$25.03 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 69.4¢ | $246.94 | $303.61 | +$59.39 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 84.1¢ | $291.47 | $274.55 | -$16.92 | 32% 670-1442 (2112) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $226.45 | $225.2 | -$1.25 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $187.52 | $192.06 | +$4.55 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.7¢ | $112.69 | $192.06 | +$79.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.3¢ | $74.82 | — | -$74.82 | |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 97.7¢ | $174.56 | $177.3 | +$2.74 | 33% 1018-2114 (3132) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $85.45 | $162.9 | +$77.44 | 51% 754-731 (1485) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 85.4¢ | $201.26 | $142.26 | +$2.11 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
 OhioRiskManagement | Downavg 99¢ | $129.69 | $131 | +$1.31 | 38% 1393-2264 (3657) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.9¢ | $87.08 | $114.78 | +$27.7 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
Invested
$9,012.78
Value
$9.0K
PnL
-$4.77
Record
52%
1374-1272 (2646)
Invested
$8,510
Value
$8.1K
PnL
-$21.6
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$74.95
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$2,003.01
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$20.23
Record
99%
822-7 (829)
Invested
$1,716.7
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$26.29
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$1,889.62
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$60.83
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
machinelearnedInvested
$977.62
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$269.82
Record
46%
1036-1214 (2250)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$6.33
Record
51%
3318-3179 (6497)
Invested
$799.48
Value
$946.45
PnL
+$146.96
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$958.72
Value
$843.27
PnL
-$115.45
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$1,376.19
Value
$764.88
PnL
+$114.76
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$793.32
Value
$677.06
PnL
-$116.21
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$562.3
Value
$503.28
PnL
+$1.88
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$345.79
Value
$356.8
PnL
+$11.01
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$425.54
Value
$334.17
PnL
-$88.89
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$349.44
Value
$322.82
PnL
-$25.03
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$246.94
Value
$303.61
PnL
+$59.39
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Invested
$291.47
Value
$274.55
PnL
-$16.92
Record
32%
670-1442 (2112)
Invested
$226.45
Value
$225.2
PnL
-$1.25
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$187.52
Value
$192.06
PnL
+$4.55
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$174.56
Value
$177.3
PnL
+$2.74
Record
33%
1018-2114 (3132)
Invested
$85.45
Value
$162.9
PnL
+$77.44
Record
51%
754-731 (1485)
Invested
$201.26
Value
$142.26
PnL
+$2.11
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
OhioRiskManagementInvested
$129.69
Value
$131
PnL
+$1.31
Record
38%
1393-2264 (3657)
Invested
$87.08
Value
$114.78
PnL
+$27.7
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
THG.
Down — $2.0K
hoodquant
Down — $1.7K
bosona
Down — $1.4K
machinelearned
Down — $1.2K
soswald1
Down — $950
mo-money
Down — $946.45
Bonereaper
Down — $843.27