Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

17 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.0K

Combined PnL

$129.8

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 49 top traders (69%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%42 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down34 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares16,521

Combined PnL+$291.84

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,751

Combined PnL-$162.04

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.0K	+$47.77	54% 396-336 (732)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	$8.0K	+$4.3K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.2K
SU suntori	Downavg 95.9¢	$10.4K	$9.9K	-$417.3	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$112.49	41% 247-358 (605)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$1.9K	—	$-2.4K
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$34.08	99% 822-7 (829)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 84.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$40.27	47% 991-1132 (2123)
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$203.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 14¢	$163.72	—	-$163.72
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$950	$940	+$6.25	51% 3318-3179 (6497)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$470	$940	+$473.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$462.5	—	-$467.65
BO bosona	Downavg 80.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$349.15	51% 4625-4478 (9103)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 80.1¢	$603.55	$592.94	-$10.61	55% 4389-3585 (7974)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.5¢	$128.79	—	-$128.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.1¢	$474.76	$592.94	+$118.17
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$748.22	$884.8	+$136.58	46% 1036-1214 (2250)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.6¢	$704.36	$884.8	+$180.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 14.4¢	$43.86	—	-$43.86
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.8¢	$572.66	$505.01	-$3.43	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.8¢	$266.41	$505.01	+$247.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.5¢	$236.67	—	-$250.64
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3.5¢	$35.07	—	-$35.07	52% 1374-1272 (2646)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 87.7¢	$1.9K	$318.58	+$152.84	51% 1383-1347 (2730)
└ Up leg	Upavg 4¢	$20	—	+$771.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.7¢	$279.35	$318.58	-$618.73
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 89.9¢	$408.97	$414.8	+$10.63	51% 4993-4711 (9704)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.9¢	$372.88	$414.8	+$41.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 11.9¢	$32.51	—	-$31.28
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 91.7¢	$312.96	$254.99	-$57.96	44% 716-912 (1628)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.8¢	$79.23	—	-$79.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.7¢	$233.72	$254.99	+$21.27
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 93¢	$439.79	$392.91	-$46.88	52% 2174-2029 (4203)
└ Down leg	Downavg 93¢	$365.49	$392.91	+$27.42
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$74.3	—	-$74.3
MO mo-money	Downavg 94.1¢	$1.9K	$111.66	+$162.3	50% 1373-1367 (2740)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 82¢	$377.9	$342.35	-$32.44	60% 1005-684 (1689)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82¢	$280.7	$342.35	+$61.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.9¢	$88.46	—	-$94.09
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 86.1¢	$224.99	$169.99	-$46.7	46% 764-903 (1667)
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$70.1	—	-$70.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.1¢	$146.28	$169.99	+$23.4
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 92.9¢	$207.67	$163.05	-$16.9	50% 4383-4460 (8843)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Downavg 91.6¢	$150.64	$160.31	+$9.67	51% 754-731 (1485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.6¢	$146.86	$160.31	+$13.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 6¢	$3.78	—	-$3.78
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$183.15	$185	+$1.85	98% 3651-75 (3726)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$88.45	$85	-$3.45	51% 829-786 (1615)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.8¢	$77.2	$85	+$7.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.2¢	$11.25	—	-$11.25
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$7.5	—	-$7.5	71% 1579-644 (2223)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 19.4¢	$39.5	—	-$39.5	47% 2135-2370 (4505)
pspspsps5ARB<$100	Downavg 92.5¢	$71.11	$75.4	+$4.29	33% 1018-2114 (3132)
└ Down leg	Downavg 92.5¢	$69.77	$75.4	+$5.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 3¢	$1.34	—	-$1.34

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,742

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$47.77

Record

54%

396-336 (732)

Both legs:

Down$3,995.6150¢+$4.3K

Up$3,946.3450¢$-4.2K

suntori

Down

Invested

$10,441.38

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$417.3

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$112.49

Record

41%

247-358 (605)

Both legs:

Invested

$3,373.92

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$34.08

Record

99%

822-7 (829)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,256.77

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$40.27

Record

47%

991-1132 (2123)

Both legs:

Down$1,093.0584.3¢+$203.99

Up$163.7214¢-$163.72

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

+$6.25

Record

51%

3318-3179 (6497)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,520.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$349.15

Record

51%

4625-4478 (9103)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$603.55

Value

$592.94

PnL

-$10.61

Record

55%

4389-3585 (7974)

Both legs:

Up$128.7917.5¢-$128.79

Down$474.7680.1¢+$118.17

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$748.22

Value

$884.8

PnL

+$136.58

Record

46%

1036-1214 (2250)

Both legs:

Down$704.3679.6¢+$180.45

Up$43.8614.4¢-$43.86

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$572.66

Value

$505.01

PnL

-$3.43

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Down$266.4152.8¢+$247.2

Up$236.6747.5¢-$250.64

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$35.07

Value

—

PnL

-$35.07

Record

52%

1374-1272 (2646)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,914.57

Value

$318.58

PnL

+$152.84

Record

51%

1383-1347 (2730)

Both legs:

Up$204¢+$771.57

Down$279.3587.7¢-$618.73

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$408.97

Value

$414.8

PnL

+$10.63

Record

51%

4993-4711 (9704)

Both legs:

Down$372.8889.9¢+$41.92

Up$32.5111.9¢-$31.28

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$312.96

Value

$254.99

PnL

-$57.96

Record

44%

716-912 (1628)

Both legs:

Up$79.2318.8¢-$79.23

Down$233.7291.7¢+$21.27

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$439.79

Value

$392.91

PnL

-$46.88

Record

52%

2174-2029 (4203)

Both legs:

Down$365.4993¢+$27.42

Up$74.328¢-$74.3

mo-money

Down

Invested

$1,899.91

Value

$111.66

PnL

+$162.3

Record

50%

1373-1367 (2740)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$377.9

Value

$342.35

PnL

-$32.44

Record

60%

1005-684 (1689)

Both legs:

Invested

$224.99

Value

$169.99

PnL

-$46.7

Record

46%

764-903 (1667)

Both legs:

Up$70.130.5¢-$70.1

Down$146.2886.1¢+$23.4

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$207.67

Value

$163.05

PnL

-$16.9

Record

50%

4383-4460 (8843)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150.64

Value

$160.31

PnL

+$9.67

Record

51%

754-731 (1485)

Both legs:

Down$146.8691.6¢+$13.45

Up$3.786¢-$3.78

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$183.15

Value

$185

PnL

+$1.85

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$88.45

Value

$85

PnL

-$3.45

Record

51%

829-786 (1615)

Both legs:

Down$77.290.8¢+$7.8

Up$11.2513.2¢-$11.25

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$7.5

Record

71%

1579-644 (2223)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

—

PnL

-$39.5

Record

47%

2135-2370 (4505)

pspspsps5ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71.11

Value

$75.4

PnL

+$4.29

Record

33%

1018-2114 (3132)

Both legs:

Down$69.7792.5¢+$5.63

Up$1.343¢-$1.34

Smart Money Signal

Down

34 of 49 top traders (69%)17 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%42 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4da4ae81...9852bd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794678300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$47.77

suntori

Down — $9.9K

-$417.3

arcsine-barrister

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$112.49

THG.

Down — $3.4K

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Down — $1.6K

stepahead

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded