Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
78
Down 76%
$28.3K
-$157.63
Smart Money Signal
60 of 78 top traders (77%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%52 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.5K | $8.0K | +$77.53 | 54% 396-336 (732) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | +$151.11 | 41% 247-358 (605) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$34.04 | 99% 822-7 (829) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 73.9¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$232.82 | 50% 1373-1367 (2740) |
BO bosona | Downavg 82.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$205.33 | 51% 4625-4478 (9103) |
SU suntori | Downavg 87.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$159.53 | 46% 2702-3200 (5902) |
AL almach | Downavg 80.7¢ | $1.1K | $749.59 | +$66.93 | 51% 1383-1347 (2730) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $371.83 | $743.67 | +$371.84 | 50% 1880-1856 (3736) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 72.9¢ | $531.03 | $584.72 | +$53.69 | 47% 991-1132 (2123) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $527.95 | $544.29 | +$16.35 | 32% 670-1442 (2112) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.1¢ | $435.38 | $531.31 | +$95.93 | 51% 4993-4711 (9704) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $538.28 | $491.55 | -$4.29 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.6¢ | $485.8 | $477.06 | -$8.75 | 44% 716-912 (1628) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 74.4¢ | $405.08 | $393.26 | -$11.83 | 55% 4389-3585 (7974) |
BO BonereaperCTR | Upavg 42.5¢ | $524.9 | — | -$504.3 | 60% 1005-684 (1689) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 61.4¢ | $201.77 | $284.8 | +$83.03 | 50% 4383-4460 (8843) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $252.08 | $254.63 | +$2.55 | 98% 3651-75 (3726) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 66.9¢ | $227.04 | $235.74 | +$8.69 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $175.71 | $190.69 | +$14.98 | 51% 767-738 (1505) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 87.7¢ | $469.35 | $186.07 | -$41.65 | 52% 2174-2029 (4203) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 75.1¢ | $139.09 | $175.45 | +$36.37 | 51% 344-337 (681) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 55.4¢ | $130.74 | $159.99 | +$29.24 | 46% 764-903 (1667) |
GA gansinimen | Downavg 44.6¢ | $137.9 | $157.87 | +$19.96 | 51% 338-323 (661) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 51.8¢ | $145.17 | $125.87 | +$1.5 | 52% 850-783 (1633) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $112.82 | $126 | +$13.18 | 50% 746-753 (1499) |
Invested
$8,525
Value
$8.0K
PnL
+$77.53
Record
54%
396-336 (732)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$151.11
Record
41%
247-358 (605)
Invested
$3,369.96
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$34.04
Record
99%
822-7 (829)
Invested
$2,188.73
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$232.82
Record
50%
1373-1367 (2740)
Invested
$1,356.42
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$205.33
Record
51%
4625-4478 (9103)
Invested
$1,134.52
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$159.53
Record
46%
2702-3200 (5902)
Invested
$1,139.45
Value
$749.59
PnL
+$66.93
Record
51%
1383-1347 (2730)
Invested
$371.83
Value
$743.67
PnL
+$371.84
Record
50%
1880-1856 (3736)
Invested
$531.03
Value
$584.72
PnL
+$53.69
Record
47%
991-1132 (2123)
Invested
$527.95
Value
$544.29
PnL
+$16.35
Record
32%
670-1442 (2112)
Invested
$435.38
Value
$531.31
PnL
+$95.93
Record
51%
4993-4711 (9704)
Invested
$538.28
Value
$491.55
PnL
-$4.29
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Invested
$485.8
Value
$477.06
PnL
-$8.75
Record
44%
716-912 (1628)
Invested
$405.08
Value
$393.26
PnL
-$11.83
Record
55%
4389-3585 (7974)
Invested
$524.9
Value
—
PnL
-$504.3
Record
60%
1005-684 (1689)
Invested
$201.77
Value
$284.8
PnL
+$83.03
Record
50%
4383-4460 (8843)
Invested
$252.08
Value
$254.63
PnL
+$2.55
Record
98%
3651-75 (3726)
Invested
$227.04
Value
$235.74
PnL
+$8.69
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$175.71
Value
$190.69
PnL
+$14.98
Record
51%
767-738 (1505)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$469.35
Value
$186.07
PnL
-$41.65
Record
52%
2174-2029 (4203)
Invested
$139.09
Value
$175.45
PnL
+$36.37
Record
51%
344-337 (681)
Invested
$130.74
Value
$159.99
PnL
+$29.24
Record
46%
764-903 (1667)
Invested
$137.9
Value
$157.87
PnL
+$19.96
Record
51%
338-323 (661)
Invested
$145.17
Value
$125.87
PnL
+$1.5
Record
52%
850-783 (1633)
Invested
$112.82
Value
$126
PnL
+$13.18
Record
50%
746-753 (1499)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $8.0K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.9K
THG.
Down — $3.4K
mo-money
Down — $1.9K
bosona
Down — $1.4K
suntori
Down — $1.3K
almach
Down — $749.59
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $743.67
CrouchPredictions
Down — $584.72
ply-pm0
Down — $544.29