Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET

42 of 52 top Polymarket traders hold Up (81%) · Up at 100¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 14

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.5K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

61.6¢ → 99.5¢

+62% since entry · 42 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

42 of 52 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up42 traders

Total Value$23.7K

Total Shares24,212

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Down10 traders

Total Value$232.92

Total Shares1,430

Combined PnL-$184.68

Up — 81%Down — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.3K	+$138.63	54% 387-330 (717)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$127.93	40% 234-356 (590)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$11.09	98% 3591-73 (3664)
BO bosona	Upavg 75.5¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$245.57	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
ST stepahead	Upavg 54.8¢	$817.66	$894.99	+$77.33	55% 4374-3580 (7954)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 70¢	$608.21	$727.99	+$119.78	46% 977-1126 (2103)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 99¢	$605.7	$596.7	-$9	42% 1619-2223 (3842)
AL almach	Upavg 55.5¢	$317.03	$560.2	+$243.17	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 54.4¢	$580.46	$506.88	+$9.01	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99¢	$502	$504.53	+$2.54	52% 1357-1267 (2624)
MO mo-money	Upavg 56.3¢	$264.58	$462.11	+$197.53	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 58.3¢	$337.35	$400.95	+$63.6	31% 659-1438 (2097)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 65.2¢	$387.23	$391.35	+$4.12	60% 995-676 (1671)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.2¢	$225.56	$306.3	+$80.74
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.9¢	$161.67	$85.05	-$76.62
BL blue.birds	Upavg 89.2¢	$403.55	$385.2	-$18.35	51% 4968-4686 (9654)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 74.2¢	$279.22	$374.3	+$95.08	47% 2103-2356 (4459)
OhioRiskManagement	Upavg 97.7¢	$225.82	$225.32	-$0.5	38% 1375-2241 (3616)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.9¢	$163.7	$164.38	+$0.68	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 79.9¢	$122.68	$133.08	+$10.4	44% 709-904 (1613)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 70.1¢	$104.65	$131.47	+$26.82	47% 2067-2299 (4366)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$162.36	$126.61	-$35.75	46% 1027-1208 (2235)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.5¢	$81.25	$82.34	+$1.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$81.11	$44.27	-$36.84
PB PBot-6	Upavg 45¢	$112.5	$126.25	+$13.75	50% 782-781 (1563)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 91.3¢	$126.41	$125.59	-$0.81	62% 3900-2350 (6250)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 81.9¢	$114.59	$123.19	+$8.6	46% 758-894 (1652)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Downavg 32.1¢	$254.27	$110.64	-$56.63	50% 4364-4429 (8793)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 63¢	$74.03	$107.81	+$33.78	48% 704-756 (1460)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,694

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$138.63

Record

54%

387-330 (717)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$127.93

Record

40%

234-356 (590)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,624.69

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$11.09

Record

98%

3591-73 (3664)

bosona

Invested

$1,094.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$245.57

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

stepahead

Invested

$817.66

Value

$894.99

PnL

+$77.33

Record

55%

4374-3580 (7954)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$608.21

Value

$727.99

PnL

+$119.78

Record

46%

977-1126 (2103)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$605.7

Value

$596.7

PnL

-$9

Record

42%

1619-2223 (3842)

almach

Invested

$317.03

Value

$560.2

PnL

+$243.17

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$580.46

Value

$506.88

PnL

+$9.01

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

0x50f7

Invested

$502

Value

$504.53

PnL

+$2.54

Record

52%

1357-1267 (2624)

mo-money

Invested

$264.58

Value

$462.11

PnL

+$197.53

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

ply-pm0

Invested

$337.35

Value

$400.95

PnL

+$63.6

Record

31%

659-1438 (2097)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$387.23

Value

$391.35

PnL

+$4.12

Record

60%

995-676 (1671)

Both legs:

Up$225.5665.2¢+$80.74

Down$161.6721.9¢-$76.62

blue.birds

Invested

$403.55

Value

$385.2

PnL

-$18.35

Record

51%

4968-4686 (9654)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$279.22

Value

$374.3

PnL

+$95.08

Record

47%

2103-2356 (4459)

OhioRiskManagement

Invested

$225.82

Value

$225.32

PnL

-$0.5

Record

38%

1375-2241 (3616)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$163.7

Value

$164.38

PnL

+$0.68

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$122.68

Value

$133.08

PnL

+$10.4

Record

44%

709-904 (1613)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$104.65

Value

$131.47

PnL

+$26.82

Record

47%

2067-2299 (4366)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$162.36

Value

$126.61

PnL

-$35.75

Record

46%

1027-1208 (2235)

Both legs:

Up$81.2576.5¢+$1.09

Down$81.1141.2¢-$36.84

PBot-6

Invested

$112.5

Value

$126.25

PnL

+$13.75

Record

50%

782-781 (1563)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$126.41

Value

$125.59

PnL

-$0.81

Record

62%

3900-2350 (6250)

GoodFallen

Invested

$114.59

Value

$123.19

PnL

+$8.6

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

asdcaxzCTR

Down

Invested

$254.27

Value

$110.64

PnL

-$56.63

Record

50%

4364-4429 (8793)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$74.03

Value

$107.81

PnL

+$33.78

Record

48%

704-756 (1460)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

42 of 52 top traders (81%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.