Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
62
Up 77%
5 arb excluded
$42.8K
$109.16
Smart Money Signal
48 of 62 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99¢ | $8.1K | $8.2K | +$81.66 | 52% 1357-1267 (2624) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $8.1K | +$48.93 | 54% 387-330 (717) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$129.85 | 40% 234-356 (590) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$34.01 | 99% 814-7 (821) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$18.63 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 66.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$193.22 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
AL almach | Upavg 75¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$196.47 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 47.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$228.98 | 60% 995-676 (1671) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 49.9¢ | $790.32 | $1.1K | +$270.16 | 44% 709-904 (1613) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99¢ | $990 | $1,000 | +$10 | 49% 1477-1548 (3025) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | $920 | +$7.72 | 51% 3279-3161 (6440) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 81¢ | $678.51 | $812.45 | +$133.94 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79.6¢ | $1.4K | $885.83 | -$54.05 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 77.2¢ | $706.42 | $577.97 | +$0.11 | 31% 659-1438 (2097) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 63.9¢ | $638.25 | $563.44 | -$30.7 | 51% 4968-4686 (9654) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 56.3¢ | $534.09 | $542.09 | +$8 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $494.02 | $532.17 | +$38.15 | 27% 469-1251 (1720) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $624.88 | $486.64 | -$0.43 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 62.1¢ | $540.25 | $474.05 | +$10.94 | 50% 4364-4429 (8793) |
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212 | Upavg 50¢ | $286.09 | $370.19 | +$84.1 | 51% 757-733 (1490) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $375.16 | $343.51 | -$31.65 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $169.9 | — | -$169.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.8¢ | $205.26 | $343.51 | +$138.25 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 62.2¢ | $365.45 | $292.97 | -$45.78 | 53% 4516-3934 (8450) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 45.2¢ | $253.9 | — | -$237.5 | 52% 840-777 (1617) |
ST stepaheadARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $228.1 | $243.77 | +$15.67 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $128.66 | — | -$128.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.8¢ | $99.44 | $243.77 | +$144.33 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 78.9¢ | $200.05 | $206.6 | +$6.55 | 51% 329-318 (647) |
Invested
$8,083.93
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$81.66
Record
52%
1357-1267 (2624)
Invested
$8,648
Value
$8.1K
PnL
+$48.93
Record
54%
387-330 (717)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$129.85
Record
40%
234-356 (590)
Invested
$3,366.99
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$34.01
Record
99%
814-7 (821)
Invested
$1,844.37
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$18.63
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Invested
$1,223.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$193.22
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$1,266.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$196.47
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$1,024.81
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$228.98
Record
60%
995-676 (1671)
Invested
$790.32
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$270.16
Record
44%
709-904 (1613)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1,000
PnL
+$10
Record
49%
1477-1548 (3025)
Invested
$950
Value
$920
PnL
+$7.72
Record
51%
3279-3161 (6440)
Invested
$678.51
Value
$812.45
PnL
+$133.94
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Invested
$1,412.46
Value
$885.83
PnL
-$54.05
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$706.42
Value
$577.97
PnL
+$0.11
Record
31%
659-1438 (2097)
Invested
$638.25
Value
$563.44
PnL
-$30.7
Record
51%
4968-4686 (9654)
Invested
$534.09
Value
$542.09
PnL
+$8
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
NIULAI4Invested
$494.02
Value
$532.17
PnL
+$38.15
Record
27%
469-1251 (1720)
Invested
$624.88
Value
$486.64
PnL
-$0.43
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Invested
$540.25
Value
$474.05
PnL
+$10.94
Record
50%
4364-4429 (8793)
Invested
$286.09
Value
$370.19
PnL
+$84.1
Record
51%
757-733 (1490)
Invested
$375.16
Value
$343.51
PnL
-$31.65
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$365.45
Value
$292.97
PnL
-$45.78
Record
53%
4516-3934 (8450)
Invested
$253.9
Value
—
PnL
-$237.5
Record
52%
840-777 (1617)
Invested
$228.1
Value
$243.77
PnL
+$15.67
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
Both legs:
Invested
$200.05
Value
$206.6
PnL
+$6.55
Record
51%
329-318 (647)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $8.2K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.1K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
THG.
Up — $3.4K
hoodquant
Up — $1.9K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.4K
almach
Up — $1.5K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $1,000