Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 65%
6 arb excluded
$21.3K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
37 of 57 top traders (65%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.1K | 54% 387-330 (717) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$93.2 | 40% 234-356 (590) |
TH THG. | Upavg 99¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$33.98 | 99% 814-7 (821) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 44.1¢ | $981.93 | $1.2K | +$225.95 | 60% 995-676 (1671) |
 cryingbabydicer87 | Upavg 99¢ | $990 | $1.0K | +$10 | 49% 1477-1548 (3025) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 53.5¢ | $955.41 | $971.69 | +$16.27 | 44% 709-904 (1613) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 43.8¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 50% 2222-2217 (4439) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 65.5¢ | $961.27 | $860.28 | -$100.99 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 51.1¢ | $656.98 | $665 | +$8.02 | 51% 4968-4686 (9654) |
BO bosona | Upavg 66.6¢ | $851.35 | $660.99 | +$132.57 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $714.27 | $648.55 | -$65.72 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.6¢ | $347.68 | $648.55 | +$300.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.7¢ | $366.59 | — | -$366.59 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $546.61 | $611.11 | +$64.5 | 31% 659-1438 (2097) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 48.2¢ | $546.05 | $584.05 | +$37.99 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $543.02 | $521.16 | -$20.6 | 62% 3900-2350 (6250) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $643.22 | $487.82 | +$9.91 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 49.7¢ | $394.16 | $460.37 | +$96.57 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 53.5¢ | $344.16 | $437 | +$92.84 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 52.8¢ | $273.69 | $308.67 | +$56.63 | 52% 840-777 (1617) |
AL almach | Upavg 32.9¢ | $191.02 | $565.44 | +$374.42 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 39.6¢ | $168.94 | $256.4 | +$87.46 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 48.2¢ | $203.86 | $271.68 | +$67.82 | 53% 4516-3934 (8450) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $131.05 | $271.68 | +$140.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.4¢ | $72.81 | — | -$72.81 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $193.05 | $195 | +$1.95 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $170.95 | $191.16 | +$20.21 | 46% 673-805 (1478) |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 45.9¢ | $140.92 | $165.83 | +$24.91 | 51% 329-318 (647) |
AL Alpharo28 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $151.5 | $168.97 | +$70.15 | 56% 249-199 (448) |
Invested
$8,573
Value
—
PnL
$-8.1K
Record
54%
387-330 (717)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$93.2
Record
40%
234-356 (590)
Invested
$3,364.02
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$33.98
Record
99%
814-7 (821)
Invested
$981.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$225.95
Record
60%
995-676 (1671)
cryingbabydicer87Invested
$990
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$10
Record
49%
1477-1548 (3025)
Invested
$955.41
Value
$971.69
PnL
+$16.27
Record
44%
709-904 (1613)
Invested
$1,325.5
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
50%
2222-2217 (4439)
Invested
$961.27
Value
$860.28
PnL
-$100.99
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$656.98
Value
$665
PnL
+$8.02
Record
51%
4968-4686 (9654)
Invested
$851.35
Value
$660.99
PnL
+$132.57
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$714.27
Value
$648.55
PnL
-$65.72
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Both legs:
Invested
$546.61
Value
$611.11
PnL
+$64.5
Record
31%
659-1438 (2097)
Invested
$546.05
Value
$584.05
PnL
+$37.99
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
Invested
$543.02
Value
$521.16
PnL
-$20.6
Record
62%
3900-2350 (6250)
Invested
$643.22
Value
$487.82
PnL
+$9.91
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Invested
$394.16
Value
$460.37
PnL
+$96.57
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
Invested
$344.16
Value
$437
PnL
+$92.84
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Invested
$273.69
Value
$308.67
PnL
+$56.63
Record
52%
840-777 (1617)
Invested
$191.02
Value
$565.44
PnL
+$374.42
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$168.94
Value
$256.4
PnL
+$87.46
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$203.86
Value
$271.68
PnL
+$67.82
Record
53%
4516-3934 (8450)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.05
Value
$195
PnL
+$1.95
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Invested
$170.95
Value
$191.16
PnL
+$20.21
Record
46%
673-805 (1478)
Invested
$140.92
Value
$165.83
PnL
+$24.91
Record
51%
329-318 (647)
Invested
$151.5
Value
$168.97
PnL
+$70.15
Record
56%
249-199 (448)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
THG.
Up — $3.4K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
cryingbabydicer87
Up — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $971.69
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
Up — $860.28
blue.birds
Up — $665
bosona
Up — $660.99