Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Up 70%
3 arb excluded
$28.1K
-$308.3
Smart Money Signal
42 of 60 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%29 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$60.8 | 54% 387-330 (717) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$48.09 | 40% 234-356 (590) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$35 | 71% 1564-636 (2200) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 60¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$27.32 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 81.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$240.87 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 40.8¢ | $892.22 | $1.2K | +$258.28 | 60% 995-676 (1671) |
BO bosona | Upavg 80.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$93.34 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 96.5¢ | $986.06 | $1.0K | +$35.94 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 39¢ | $499.39 | $921.47 | +$424.98 | 44% 709-904 (1613) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 54.1¢ | $638 | $667.3 | +$29.31 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.3¢ | $556.39 | — | -$500.21 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
AL almach | Upavg 88.5¢ | $448.51 | $453.34 | +$4.84 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 56.7¢ | $273.36 | — | -$273.36 | 51% 4968-4686 (9654) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 60.7¢ | $221 | $279.99 | +$58.99 | 52% 2159-2014 (4173) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 25.3¢ | $123.23 | $292.99 | +$169.77 | 52% 840-777 (1617) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 84.7¢ | $464.02 | $251.17 | -$44.41 | 31% 659-1438 (2097) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 72¢ | $193.19 | $201 | +$7.81 | 47% 2067-2299 (4366) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $157.67 | $164.56 | +$6.89 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.4¢ | $61.47 | $164.56 | +$103.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.8¢ | $96.2 | — | -$96.2 | |
AL Alpharo28CTR | Downavg 82.6¢ | $229.88 | — | -$213.66 | 56% 249-199 (448) |
PB PBot-6 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $148.49 | $299.98 | +$151.49 | 50% 782-781 (1563) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 41.2¢ | $124.9 | $90.32 | -$34.58 | 50% 4364-4429 (8793) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.3¢ | $39.07 | $90.32 | +$51.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.2¢ | $85.82 | — | -$85.82 | |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Upavg 54.5¢ | $116.93 | $133.73 | +$16.81 | 51% 329-318 (647) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.5¢ | $72.94 | $133.73 | +$60.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $43.99 | — | -$43.99 | |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 72.5¢ | $103.7 | $113.01 | +$9.31 | 48% 704-756 (1460) |
SP spartacray | Upavg 56.7¢ | $61.88 | $109.08 | +$47.2 | 58% 920-664 (1584) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 53.9¢ | $164.66 | — | -$164.66 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
Invested
$8,758
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$60.8
Record
54%
387-330 (717)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.9K
PnL
-$48.09
Record
40%
234-356 (590)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,465
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$35
Record
71%
1564-636 (2200)
Invested
$1,294.25
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$27.32
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$1,058.98
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$240.87
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Invested
$892.22
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$258.28
Record
60%
995-676 (1671)
Invested
$1,209.08
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$93.34
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$986.06
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$35.94
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Invested
$499.39
Value
$921.47
PnL
+$424.98
Record
44%
709-904 (1613)
Invested
$638
Value
$667.3
PnL
+$29.31
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
Invested
$556.39
Value
—
PnL
-$500.21
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Invested
$448.51
Value
$453.34
PnL
+$4.84
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$273.36
Value
—
PnL
-$273.36
Record
51%
4968-4686 (9654)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$221
Value
$279.99
PnL
+$58.99
Record
52%
2159-2014 (4173)
Invested
$123.23
Value
$292.99
PnL
+$169.77
Record
52%
840-777 (1617)
Invested
$464.02
Value
$251.17
PnL
-$44.41
Record
31%
659-1438 (2097)
Invested
$193.19
Value
$201
PnL
+$7.81
Record
47%
2067-2299 (4366)
Invested
$157.67
Value
$164.56
PnL
+$6.89
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
Both legs:
Invested
$229.88
Value
—
PnL
-$213.66
Record
56%
249-199 (448)
Invested
$148.49
Value
$299.98
PnL
+$151.49
Record
50%
782-781 (1563)
Invested
$124.9
Value
$90.32
PnL
-$34.58
Record
50%
4364-4429 (8793)
Both legs:
Invested
$116.93
Value
$133.73
PnL
+$16.81
Record
51%
329-318 (647)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.7
Value
$113.01
PnL
+$9.31
Record
48%
704-756 (1460)
Invested
$61.88
Value
$109.08
PnL
+$47.2
Record
58%
920-664 (1584)
Invested
$164.66
Value
—
PnL
-$164.66
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.9K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.5K
CrouchPredictions
Up — $1.3K
mo-money
Up — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.2K
bosona
Up — $1.1K
hoodquant
Up — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $921.47
stepahead
Up — $667.3