Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 84% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Up 83%
4 arb excluded
$28.7K
$1.7K
Smart Money Signal
48 of 57 top traders (84%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $8.2K | +$70.85 | 54% 387-330 (717) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$24.8 | 40% 234-356 (590) |
BO bosona | Upavg 64.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.9K | +$656.58 | 51% 4610-4467 (9077) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 97.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$24.95 | 98% 3591-73 (3664) |
ST stepahead | Upavg 63.1¢ | $944.35 | $1.0K | +$73.97 | 55% 4374-3580 (7954) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 62.8¢ | $904.97 | $1.0K | +$122.52 | 60% 995-676 (1671) |
AL almach | Upavg 61.1¢ | $678.36 | $1.1K | +$432.45 | 51% 1368-1337 (2705) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 61¢ | $846.81 | $1.4K | +$541.97 | 50% 1358-1358 (2716) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $699.32 | $713.71 | +$14.4 | 50% 4364-4429 (8793) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75¢ | $535.62 | $713.71 | +$178.09 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27¢ | $163.7 | — | -$163.7 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.2¢ | $511.37 | $513.67 | +$2.3 | 31% 659-1438 (2097) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $614.05 | $500 | +$4.29 | 54% 3405-2902 (6307) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 67.9¢ | $486.56 | $442.94 | -$43.62 | 44% 709-904 (1613) |
GA gansinimenARB<$100 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $503.13 | $451.81 | -$51.32 | 51% 329-318 (647) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.2¢ | $245.02 | $451.81 | +$206.79 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.6¢ | $258.1 | — | -$258.1 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $481.52 | $935.37 | +$453.85 | 50% 1856-1838 (3694) |
WZ wzbbbARB<$100 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $359.05 | $341.78 | -$17.27 | 52% 840-777 (1617) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 54.2¢ | $185.3 | $341.78 | +$156.48 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.9¢ | $173.75 | — | -$173.75 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 72.3¢ | $289 | $400 | +$111 | 46% 1027-1208 (2235) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 67.1¢ | $284.96 | $318.98 | +$34.02 | 51% 4968-4686 (9654) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Upavg 65.5¢ | $246.14 | $371.84 | +$125.69 | 46% 977-1126 (2103) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Upavg 70.4¢ | $212.42 | $243.48 | +$31.06 | 46% 673-805 (1478) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 58.7¢ | $190.91 | $195.32 | +$4.4 | 46% 758-894 (1652) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 59.7¢ | $172.96 | $190.1 | +$17.14 | 50% 3063-3014 (6077) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 49.8¢ | $131.87 | $219.99 | +$88.12 | 40% 732-1093 (1825) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 43.3¢ | $110.05 | $228.57 | +$118.51 | 53% 4516-3934 (8450) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $122.81 | $155.52 | +$32.71 | 48% 704-756 (1460) |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 48.8¢ | $130.93 | $143.87 | +$30.42 | 58% 4971-3632 (8603) |
Invested
$8,777
Value
$8.2K
PnL
+$70.85
Record
54%
387-330 (717)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$24.8
Record
40%
234-356 (590)
Invested
$1,194.39
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$656.58
Record
51%
4610-4467 (9077)
Invested
$1,103.63
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$24.95
Record
98%
3591-73 (3664)
Invested
$944.35
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$73.97
Record
55%
4374-3580 (7954)
Invested
$904.97
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$122.52
Record
60%
995-676 (1671)
Invested
$678.36
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$432.45
Record
51%
1368-1337 (2705)
Invested
$846.81
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$541.97
Record
50%
1358-1358 (2716)
Invested
$699.32
Value
$713.71
PnL
+$14.4
Record
50%
4364-4429 (8793)
Both legs:
Invested
$511.37
Value
$513.67
PnL
+$2.3
Record
31%
659-1438 (2097)
Invested
$614.05
Value
$500
PnL
+$4.29
Record
54%
3405-2902 (6307)
Invested
$486.56
Value
$442.94
PnL
-$43.62
Record
44%
709-904 (1613)
Invested
$503.13
Value
$451.81
PnL
-$51.32
Record
51%
329-318 (647)
Both legs:
Invested
$481.52
Value
$935.37
PnL
+$453.85
Record
50%
1856-1838 (3694)
Invested
$359.05
Value
$341.78
PnL
-$17.27
Record
52%
840-777 (1617)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$289
Value
$400
PnL
+$111
Record
46%
1027-1208 (2235)
Invested
$284.96
Value
$318.98
PnL
+$34.02
Record
51%
4968-4686 (9654)
Invested
$246.14
Value
$371.84
PnL
+$125.69
Record
46%
977-1126 (2103)
Invested
$212.42
Value
$243.48
PnL
+$31.06
Record
46%
673-805 (1478)
Invested
$190.91
Value
$195.32
PnL
+$4.4
Record
46%
758-894 (1652)
Invested
$172.96
Value
$190.1
PnL
+$17.14
Record
50%
3063-3014 (6077)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$131.87
Value
$219.99
PnL
+$88.12
Record
40%
732-1093 (1825)
FairValueMachineInvested
$110.05
Value
$228.57
PnL
+$118.51
Record
53%
4516-3934 (8450)
Invested
$122.81
Value
$155.52
PnL
+$32.71
Record
48%
704-756 (1460)
Invested
$130.93
Value
$143.87
PnL
+$30.42
Record
58%
4971-3632 (8603)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $8.2K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
bosona
Up — $1.9K
hoodquant
Up — $1.1K
stepahead
Up — $1.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.0K
almach
Up — $1.1K
mo-money
Up — $1.4K
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Up — $513.67