Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.9K

Combined PnL

-$42.46

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 42 top traders (62%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares5,972

Combined PnL+$608.18

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,835

Combined PnL-$650.63

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	$8.3K	+$12.61	54% 387-330 (717)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.2K	$8.3K	+$4.3K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$17.69	40% 234-356 (590)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	—	$-2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.4K	$4.8K	+$2.5K
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.8¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$14.2	98% 3591-73 (3664)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$940	-$1.6	51% 3279-3161 (6440)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$470	$940	+$473.4
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 66.3¢	$813.25	$855.85	+$42.6	46% 977-1126 (2103)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.6¢	$245.57	—	-$245.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.3¢	$567.68	$855.85	+$288.17
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 56.6¢	$655.19	$760.35	+$131.86	60% 995-676 (1671)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.84	99% 814-7 (821)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$602.4	$494.8	+$2.71	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$243.75	—	-$248.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.9¢	$261.75	$494.8	+$251.51
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 84¢	$433.18	$424.12	-$7.26	50% 4364-4429 (8793)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 63¢	$359.65	$349.44	-$10.21	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.6¢	$139.49	—	-$139.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 63¢	$220.15	$349.44	+$129.29
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$337.15	$363.02	+$25.87	55% 4374-3580 (7954)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.6¢	$131.44	—	-$131.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.7¢	$205.71	$363.02	+$157.31
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 41.4¢	$295.34	—	-$295.34	50% 1856-1838 (3694)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$272.34	$266.1	-$6.24	44% 709-904 (1613)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.1¢	$81.8	—	-$81.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$190.54	$266.1	+$75.56
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 69.7¢	$209.06	$268.47	+$63.13	52% 840-777 (1617)
machinelearned	Downavg 77.4¢	$353.88	$457.37	+$103.49	46% 1027-1208 (2235)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 71.5¢	$240.02	$221.06	-$15.44	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 40¢	$195.43	$110.14	-$85.29	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$118.44	—	-$118.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.9¢	$76.99	$110.14	+$33.15
FairValueMachine	Downavg 61.9¢	$123.77	$166.27	+$51.86	53% 4516-3934 (8450)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 31.9¢	$163.22	—	-$140.47	46% 758-894 (1652)
HC Hcrystallash	Downavg 65.2¢	$66.58	$102.1	+$35.52	58% 4971-3632 (8603)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$70.28	$73.28	+$3	47% 2067-2299 (4366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.1¢	$40.1	—	-$40.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$30.18	$73.28	+$43.09
BO bosona	Downavg 72.3¢	$118.1	$156.33	+$38.23	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$108.06	$109.05	+$0.99	67% 3307-1655 (4962)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.6¢	$94.41	$109.05	+$14.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.2¢	$13.65	—	-$13.65
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$92.28	$88.13	-$4.15	51% 822-785 (1607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.4¢	$21.55	—	-$21.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.3¢	$70.73	$88.13	+$17.4
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100	Upavg 39.1¢	$73.02	$56.16	-$16.86	43% 2013-2620 (4633)
└ Up leg	Upavg 39.1¢	$36.8	—	-$36.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.5¢	$36.22	$56.16	+$19.94

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,766

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$12.61

Record

54%

387-330 (717)

Both legs:

Up$4,201.4850¢$-4.3K

Down$4,158.6750¢+$4.3K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$17.69

Record

40%

234-356 (590)

Both legs:

Up$2,497.550¢$-2.5K

Down$2,376.2550¢+$2.5K

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,199.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$14.2

Record

98%

3591-73 (3664)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

-$1.6

Record

51%

3279-3161 (6440)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢-$475

Down$47050¢+$473.4

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$813.25

Value

$855.85

PnL

+$42.6

Record

46%

977-1126 (2103)

Both legs:

Up$245.5725.6¢-$245.57

Down$567.6866.3¢+$288.17

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$655.19

Value

$760.35

PnL

+$131.86

Record

60%

995-676 (1671)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,468.73

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.84

Record

99%

814-7 (821)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$602.4

Value

$494.8

PnL

+$2.71

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

Both legs:

Up$243.7548.3¢-$248.8

Down$261.7552.9¢+$251.51

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$433.18

Value

$424.12

PnL

-$7.26

Record

50%

4364-4429 (8793)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$359.65

Value

$349.44

PnL

-$10.21

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

Both legs:

Up$139.4934.6¢-$139.49

Down$220.1563¢+$129.29

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$337.15

Value

$363.02

PnL

+$25.87

Record

55%

4374-3580 (7954)

Both legs:

Up$131.4435.6¢-$131.44

Down$205.7156.7¢+$157.31

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$295.34

Value

—

PnL

-$295.34

Record

50%

1856-1838 (3694)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$272.34

Value

$266.1

PnL

-$6.24

Record

44%

709-904 (1613)

Both legs:

Up$81.820.1¢-$81.8

Down$190.5471.6¢+$75.56

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$209.06

Value

$268.47

PnL

+$63.13

Record

52%

840-777 (1617)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$353.88

Value

$457.37

PnL

+$103.49

Record

46%

1027-1208 (2235)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$240.02

Value

$221.06

PnL

-$15.44

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

almachARB<$100

Invested

$195.43

Value

$110.14

PnL

-$85.29

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

Both legs:

Up$118.4440¢-$118.44

Down$76.9969.9¢+$33.15

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$123.77

Value

$166.27

PnL

+$51.86

Record

53%

4516-3934 (8450)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$163.22

Value

—

PnL

-$140.47

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

Hcrystallash

Down

Invested

$66.58

Value

$102.1

PnL

+$35.52

Record

58%

4971-3632 (8603)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Invested

$70.28

Value

$73.28

PnL

+$3

Record

47%

2067-2299 (4366)

Both legs:

Up$40.132.1¢-$40.1

Down$30.1841.2¢+$43.09

bosona

Down

Invested

$118.1

Value

$156.33

PnL

+$38.23

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.06

Value

$109.05

PnL

+$0.99

Record

67%

3307-1655 (4962)

Both legs:

Down$94.4186.6¢+$14.64

Up$13.6518.2¢-$13.65

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$92.28

Value

$88.13

PnL

-$4.15

Record

51%

822-785 (1607)

Both legs:

Up$21.5524.4¢-$21.55

Down$70.7380.3¢+$17.4

G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100

Invested

$73.02

Value

$56.16

PnL

-$16.86

Record

43%

2013-2620 (4633)

Both legs:

Up$36.839.1¢-$36.8

Down$36.2264.5¢+$19.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 42 top traders (62%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8dbeae8a...244004

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794675900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $760.35

+$131.86

THG.

Down — $1.5K

+$14.84

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.71

asdcaxz

Down — $424.12

-$7.26

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$10.21

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