Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 38%

20 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.9K

Combined PnL

$-2.3K

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 49 top traders (45%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down22 traders

Total Value$18.6K

Total Shares18,567

Combined PnL+$156.68

Up27 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6,409

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$9.0K	$8.5K	-$54.69	54% 387-330 (717)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	-$17.23	40% 234-356 (590)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 72.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$231.84	46% 977-1126 (2103)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 56.8¢	$649.82	$1.1K	+$460.67	50% 1856-1838 (3694)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 62.8¢	$1.0K	$937.59	-$62.93	50% 3063-3014 (6077)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.1¢	$411.61	—	-$411.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$588.92	$937.59	+$348.67
BO BonereaperCTR	Upavg 39.1¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.0K	60% 995-676 (1671)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 59.7¢	$786.4	$723.44	-$33.03	44% 709-904 (1613)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$711.47	$657.14	-$54.33	55% 4374-3580 (7954)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.8¢	$312.47	—	-$312.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$399	$657.14	+$258.14
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.5¢	$645.02	$595.84	-$49.18	50% 1358-1358 (2716)
AL almachARB<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$849.72	$736.86	-$112.86	51% 1368-1337 (2705)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.8¢	$236.8	—	-$236.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.2¢	$612.92	$736.86	+$123.94
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 55¢	$507.08	$513.64	+$6.56	52% 2159-2014 (4173)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$224.63	—	-$224.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$282.45	$513.64	+$231.19
BO bosonaARB<$100	Downavg 85.7¢	$889.36	$643.56	-$126.88	51% 4610-4467 (9077)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.2¢	$206.28	—	-$203.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.7¢	$551.64	$643.56	+$77.05
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$641.43	$495	+$16.92	54% 3405-2902 (6307)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.9¢	$239.3	—	-$240.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$250.39	$495	+$257.15
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 42.4¢	$461.12	$326.62	-$134.5	46% 758-894 (1652)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$242.72	—	-$242.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.9¢	$218.41	$326.62	+$108.22
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 81.8¢	$504.18	$440.22	-$63.96	31% 659-1438 (2097)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$485.77	$374.05	-$111.72	51% 4968-4686 (9654)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.7¢	$253.24	$374.05	+$120.81
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$232.53	—	-$232.53
AS asdcaxzARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$434.87	$371.62	-$63.25	50% 4364-4429 (8793)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$161.94	—	-$161.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$272.94	$371.62	+$98.68
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 75.6¢	$276.84	$282.63	+$5.8	53% 4516-3934 (8450)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$63.06	—	-$63.06
└ Down leg	Downavg 75.6¢	$213.78	$282.63	+$68.85
OhioAIARB<$100	Downavg 61.4¢	$174.92	$168.51	-$6.41	50% 732-720 (1452)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$71.4	—	-$71.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.4¢	$103.52	$168.51	+$64.99
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 77.8¢	$133.44	$153.87	+$34.22	40% 732-1093 (1825)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$103.66	$121.08	+$17.42	47% 2067-2299 (4366)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$39.16	—	-$39.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.3¢	$64.5	$121.08	+$56.58
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.5¢	$135.82	$137.92	+$2.1	98% 3591-73 (3664)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 33¢	$126.6	—	-$126.6	46% 1027-1208 (2235)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100	Downavg 59.6¢	$100.65	$104.17	+$3.52	59% 939-655 (1594)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.4¢	$38.6	—	-$38.6
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.6¢	$62.04	$104.17	+$42.13
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$89.5	$67.86	-$21.64	51% 747-723 (1470)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$49.49	—	-$49.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 59¢	$40.01	$67.86	+$27.85

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,967

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$54.69

Record

54%

387-330 (717)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$17.23

Record

40%

234-356 (590)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,597.07

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$231.84

Record

46%

977-1126 (2103)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$649.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$460.67

Record

50%

1856-1838 (3694)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,000.53

Value

$937.59

PnL

-$62.93

Record

50%

3063-3014 (6077)

Both legs:

Up$411.6142.1¢-$411.61

Down$588.9262.8¢+$348.67

BonereaperCTR

Invested

$1,067.87

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

60%

995-676 (1671)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$786.4

Value

$723.44

PnL

-$33.03

Record

44%

709-904 (1613)

stepaheadARB<$100

Down

Invested

$711.47

Value

$657.14

PnL

-$54.33

Record

55%

4374-3580 (7954)

Both legs:

Up$312.4742.8¢-$312.47

Down$39960.7¢+$258.14

mo-money

Down

Invested

$645.02

Value

$595.84

PnL

-$49.18

Record

50%

1358-1358 (2716)

almachARB<$100

Down

Invested

$849.72

Value

$736.86

PnL

-$112.86

Record

51%

1368-1337 (2705)

Both legs:

Up$236.846.8¢-$236.8

Down$612.9283.2¢+$123.94

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$507.08

Value

$513.64

PnL

+$6.56

Record

52%

2159-2014 (4173)

Both legs:

Up$224.6343.8¢-$224.63

Down$282.4555¢+$231.19

bosonaARB<$100

Down

Invested

$889.36

Value

$643.56

PnL

-$126.88

Record

51%

4610-4467 (9077)

Both legs:

Up$206.2847.2¢-$203.93

Down$551.6485.7¢+$77.05

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$641.43

Value

$495

PnL

+$16.92

Record

54%

3405-2902 (6307)

Both legs:

Up$239.347.9¢-$240.23

Down$250.3950.6¢+$257.15

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$461.12

Value

$326.62

PnL

-$134.5

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

Both legs:

Up$242.7242.4¢-$242.72

Down$218.4166.9¢+$108.22

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$504.18

Value

$440.22

PnL

-$63.96

Record

31%

659-1438 (2097)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$485.77

Value

$374.05

PnL

-$111.72

Record

51%

4968-4686 (9654)

Both legs:

Down$253.2467.7¢+$120.81

Up$232.5345.2¢-$232.53

asdcaxzARB<$100

Down

Invested

$434.87

Value

$371.62

PnL

-$63.25

Record

50%

4364-4429 (8793)

Both legs:

Up$161.9441.4¢-$161.94

Down$272.9473.4¢+$98.68

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$276.84

Value

$282.63

PnL

+$5.8

Record

53%

4516-3934 (8450)

Both legs:

Up$63.0640.6¢-$63.06

Down$213.7875.6¢+$68.85

OhioAIARB<$100

Down

Invested

$174.92

Value

$168.51

PnL

-$6.41

Record

50%

732-720 (1452)

Both legs:

Up$71.445.2¢-$71.4

Down$103.5261.4¢+$64.99

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$133.44

Value

$153.87

PnL

+$34.22

Record

40%

732-1093 (1825)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$103.66

Value

$121.08

PnL

+$17.42

Record

47%

2067-2299 (4366)

Both legs:

Up$39.1626.8¢-$39.16

Down$64.553.3¢+$56.58

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$135.82

Value

$137.92

PnL

+$2.1

Record

98%

3591-73 (3664)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$126.6

Value

—

PnL

-$126.6

Record

46%

1027-1208 (2235)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100.65

Value

$104.17

PnL

+$3.52

Record

59%

939-655 (1594)

Both legs:

Up$38.647.4¢-$38.6

Down$62.0459.6¢+$42.13

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894ARB<$100

Invested

$89.5

Value

$67.86

PnL

-$21.64

Record

51%

747-723 (1470)

Both legs:

Up$49.4949.5¢-$49.49

Down$40.0159¢+$27.85

Smart Money Signal

Down

22 of 49 top traders (45%)20 arbitrage traders dimmed27 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x2e1996b3...402274

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794675300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $8.5K

-$54.69

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

-$17.23

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

-$231.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.1K

+$460.67

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Up — $0

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $723.44

-$33.03

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$54.33

mo-money

Down — $595.84

almach

Arbitrage — excluded