Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$-6.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 55 top traders (47%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down26 traders

Total Value$23.1K

Total Shares23,148

Combined PnL+$391.84

Up29 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares7,618

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$8.6K	$8.3K	-$145.44	54% 383-324 (707)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.2K	—	$-4.2K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.1K	$8.3K	+$4.1K
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$7.4	40% 230-350 (580)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.28	52% 1352-1265 (2617)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.3	99% 808-7 (815)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 98.4¢	$2.9K	$2.4K	-$498.03	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 44.3¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$436.78	60% 989-671 (1660)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.39	98% 3543-73 (3616)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 53.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$2.35	46% 968-1122 (2090)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 37.6¢	$836.31	$1.2K	+$340.85	44% 704-899 (1603)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	49% 1453-1538 (2991)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 54.9¢	$914.23	$848.37	-$65.85	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 59.6¢	$785.33	—	-$785.33	46% 754-888 (1642)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 68¢	$776.4	—	-$776.4	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 67.3¢	$657.89	—	-$653.23	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 64.8¢	$647.66	$520.51	-$91.86	31% 652-1435 (2087)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$643.28	$479.49	+$8.51	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$253.4	—	-$233.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$227.23	$479.49	+$241.91
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 59.2¢	$446.92	—	-$443.32	52% 833-774 (1607)
ST stepaheadCTR	Upavg 59.9¢	$439.48	—	-$439.48	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
AL almach	Downavg 85¢	$576.39	$390.92	-$185.47	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
GA gansinimenCTR	Upavg 47.6¢	$333.33	—	-$333.33	51% 325-317 (642)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 49.3¢	$815.37	—	-$782.28	50% 2196-2203 (4399)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 64.2¢	$529.22	—	-$529.22	53% 4509-3931 (8440)
G-Penis-Monster	Downavg 45.9¢	$211	$260.28	+$73.03	43% 1993-2596 (4589)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100	Downavg 47.1¢	$255.3	$353.01	+$97.7	50% 732-742 (1474)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.1¢	$166.17	$353.01	+$186.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.1¢	$89.13	—	-$89.13
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$188.74	$124.82	-$63.92	48% 699-751 (1450)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$141.92	—	-$141.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.5¢	$46.82	$124.82	+$78

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Invested

$8,628

Value

$8.3K

PnL

-$145.44

Record

54%

383-324 (707)

Both legs:

Up$4,241.1550¢$-4.2K

Down$4,140.250¢+$4.1K

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$7.4

Record

40%

230-350 (580)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,294.55

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.28

Record

52%

1352-1265 (2617)

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,603.78

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.3

Record

99%

808-7 (815)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,920.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$498.03

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,338.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$436.78

Record

60%

989-671 (1660)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,622.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.39

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,313.11

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$2.35

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$836.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$340.85

Record

44%

704-899 (1603)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

49%

1453-1538 (2991)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$914.23

Value

$848.37

PnL

-$65.85

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$785.33

Value

—

PnL

-$785.33

Record

46%

754-888 (1642)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$776.4

Value

—

PnL

-$776.4

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

asdcaxzCTR

Invested

$657.89

Value

—

PnL

-$653.23

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$647.66

Value

$520.51

PnL

-$91.86

Record

31%

652-1435 (2087)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$643.28

Value

$479.49

PnL

+$8.51

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Up$253.451.6¢-$233.4

Down$227.2347.4¢+$241.91

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$446.92

Value

—

PnL

-$443.32

Record

52%

833-774 (1607)

stepaheadCTR

Invested

$439.48

Value

—

PnL

-$439.48

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

almach

Down

Invested

$576.39

Value

$390.92

PnL

-$185.47

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

gansinimenCTR

Invested

$333.33

Value

—

PnL

-$333.33

Record

51%

325-317 (642)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$815.37

Value

—

PnL

-$782.28

Record

50%

2196-2203 (4399)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$529.22

Value

—

PnL

-$529.22

Record

53%

4509-3931 (8440)

G-Penis-Monster

Down

Invested

$211

Value

$260.28

PnL

+$73.03

Record

43%

1993-2596 (4589)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.3

Value

$353.01

PnL

+$97.7

Record

50%

732-742 (1474)

Both legs:

Down$166.1747.1¢+$186.84

Up$89.1351.1¢-$89.13

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877ARB<$100

Invested

$188.74

Value

$124.82

PnL

-$63.92

Record

48%

699-751 (1450)

Both legs:

Up$141.9256.2¢-$141.92

Down$46.8237.5¢+$78

Smart Money Signal

Down

26 of 55 top traders (47%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed29 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8a3426db...0e3337

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794673800

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$145.44

arcsine-barrister

Down — $5.0K

+$7.4

0x50f7

Down — $3.3K

+$33.28

THG.

Down — $2.6K

+$26.3

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.4K

-$498.03

Bonereaper

Down — $1.8K

+$436.78

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$16.39

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.3K

-$2.35

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $1.2K

+$340.85

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $1.0K

+$10

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