Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
57
Down 77%
1 arb excluded
$11.4K
$-13.2K
Smart Money Signal
44 of 57 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.6K | — | $-8.0K | 54% 383-324 (707) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 40% 230-350 (580) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$14.38 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$33.09 | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
BO bosona | Downavg 76.5¢ | $942.41 | $999.98 | +$57.56 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$939.2 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 67.8¢ | $503.15 | $603.6 | +$183.86 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 66.6¢ | $733.76 | $578.94 | -$150.71 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 64.2¢ | $662.85 | $532.22 | -$130.63 | 44% 704-899 (1603) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 78.7¢ | $480.21 | $505.66 | +$25.45 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $586.96 | $500.99 | -$3.45 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 79.4¢ | $397 | $500 | +$103 | 46% 1021-1204 (2225) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 65.5¢ | $437.74 | $452.93 | +$15.19 | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.2¢ | $414.17 | $413.71 | +$27.89 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 65.6¢ | $286.24 | $383.37 | +$97.12 | 46% 754-888 (1642) |
AL almach | Downavg 57.5¢ | $495.78 | $512.61 | +$191.03 | 50% 1354-1329 (2683) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 65.8¢ | $208.14 | $215.43 | +$7.45 | 53% 4509-3931 (8440) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 72¢ | $212 | $212.11 | +$0.11 | 52% 833-774 (1607) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 71.7¢ | $202.65 | $192.62 | -$10.03 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $182.85 | $191.63 | +$8.78 | 31% 652-1435 (2087) |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c | Downavg 60.5¢ | $154.3 | $184.59 | +$30.29 | 59% 933-652 (1585) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $132 | $154.69 | +$22.69 | 50% 732-742 (1474) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 97.4¢ | $154.54 | $155.7 | +$1.16 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 83¢ | $124.48 | $149.97 | +$25.5 | 71% 1551-630 (2181) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 65¢ | $127.05 | $123.64 | +$4.55 | 58% 917-657 (1574) |
Invested
$8,620
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
54%
383-324 (707)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
40%
230-350 (580)
Invested
$1,373.64
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$14.38
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$1,133.35
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$33.09
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
Invested
$942.41
Value
$999.98
PnL
+$57.56
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$939.2
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$503.15
Value
$603.6
PnL
+$183.86
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Invested
$733.76
Value
$578.94
PnL
-$150.71
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
Invested
$662.85
Value
$532.22
PnL
-$130.63
Record
44%
704-899 (1603)
Invested
$480.21
Value
$505.66
PnL
+$25.45
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$586.96
Value
$500.99
PnL
-$3.45
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
machinelearnedInvested
$397
Value
$500
PnL
+$103
Record
46%
1021-1204 (2225)
Invested
$437.74
Value
$452.93
PnL
+$15.19
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Invested
$414.17
Value
$413.71
PnL
+$27.89
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$286.24
Value
$383.37
PnL
+$97.12
Record
46%
754-888 (1642)
Invested
$495.78
Value
$512.61
PnL
+$191.03
Record
50%
1354-1329 (2683)
FairValueMachineInvested
$208.14
Value
$215.43
PnL
+$7.45
Record
53%
4509-3931 (8440)
Invested
$212
Value
$212.11
PnL
+$0.11
Record
52%
833-774 (1607)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$202.65
Value
$192.62
PnL
-$10.03
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
Invested
$182.85
Value
$191.63
PnL
+$8.78
Record
31%
652-1435 (2087)
Invested
$154.3
Value
$184.59
PnL
+$30.29
Record
59%
933-652 (1585)
Invested
$132
Value
$154.69
PnL
+$22.69
Record
50%
732-742 (1474)
pspspsps5Invested
$154.54
Value
$155.7
PnL
+$1.16
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
BoneOhioInvested
$124.48
Value
$149.97
PnL
+$25.5
Record
71%
1551-630 (2181)
Invested
$127.05
Value
$123.64
PnL
+$4.55
Record
58%
917-657 (1574)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
bosona
Down — $999.98
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
mo-money
Down — $603.6
Bonereaper
Down — $578.94
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $532.22
blue.birds
Down — $505.66