Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
59
Down 81%
$24.0K
$-5.7K
Smart Money Signal
48 of 59 top traders (81%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%30 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-8.0K | 54% 383-324 (707) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$101.27 | 40% 230-350 (580) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.2K | $3.3K | +$32.63 | 99% 808-7 (815) |
BO bosona | Downavg 86¢ | $2.1K | $2.4K | +$342.45 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
AL almach | Downavg 86.9¢ | $2.0K | $2.3K | +$303.28 | 50% 1354-1329 (2683) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 84.6¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$347.77 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 88.2¢ | $891.34 | $1.0K | +$119.42 | 46% 1021-1204 (2225) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $623.38 | $1.3K | +$646.27 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $711.81 | $719 | +$7.19 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 93.8¢ | $574.32 | $612 | +$37.68 | 42% 1609-2196 (3805) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $543.54 | $500.09 | +$6.94 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 62.8¢ | $265.17 | $422.34 | +$157.17 | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 81.4¢ | $379.03 | $404.86 | +$25.83 | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 79.4¢ | $379.68 | $383.33 | +$3.65 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 81.5¢ | $340.26 | $312.98 | -$27.28 | 44% 704-899 (1603) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 80.7¢ | $266.1 | $264.36 | -$1.74 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $241.18 | $206.47 | +$4.86 | 31% 652-1435 (2087) |
HS Hsilverbasher | Downavg 91.6¢ | $183.2 | $200 | +$16.8 | 50% 331-330 (661) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 80.8¢ | $182.2 | $180 | -$2.2 | 46% 754-888 (1642) |
PA Papeasy | Downavg 93¢ | $172.84 | $184.28 | +$11.44 | 50% 3813-3765 (7578) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 94¢ | $184.59 | $167.01 | -$16.8 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 91.1¢ | $148.73 | $163.33 | +$14.6 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $145.98 | $126 | -$19.98 | 48% 699-751 (1450) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 91.6¢ | $124.63 | $136 | +$11.37 | 32% 994-2093 (3087) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 73.8¢ | $96.42 | $126 | +$29.58 | 45% 666-802 (1468) |
Invested
$8,521
Value
—
PnL
$-8.0K
Record
54%
383-324 (707)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$101.27
Record
40%
230-350 (580)
Invested
$3,230.25
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$32.63
Record
99%
808-7 (815)
Invested
$2,102.52
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$342.45
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$2,020.16
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$303.28
Record
50%
1354-1329 (2683)
Invested
$1,905.29
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$347.77
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
machinelearnedInvested
$891.34
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$119.42
Record
46%
1021-1204 (2225)
Invested
$623.38
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$646.27
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$711.81
Value
$719
PnL
+$7.19
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$574.32
Value
$612
PnL
+$37.68
Record
42%
1609-2196 (3805)
Invested
$543.54
Value
$500.09
PnL
+$6.94
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$265.17
Value
$422.34
PnL
+$157.17
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
Invested
$379.03
Value
$404.86
PnL
+$25.83
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$379.68
Value
$383.33
PnL
+$3.65
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
Invested
$340.26
Value
$312.98
PnL
-$27.28
Record
44%
704-899 (1603)
Invested
$266.1
Value
$264.36
PnL
-$1.74
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$241.18
Value
$206.47
PnL
+$4.86
Record
31%
652-1435 (2087)
Invested
$183.2
Value
$200
PnL
+$16.8
Record
50%
331-330 (661)
Invested
$182.2
Value
$180
PnL
-$2.2
Record
46%
754-888 (1642)
Invested
$172.84
Value
$184.28
PnL
+$11.44
Record
50%
3813-3765 (7578)
Invested
$184.59
Value
$167.01
PnL
-$16.8
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$148.73
Value
$163.33
PnL
+$14.6
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
Invested
$145.98
Value
$126
PnL
-$19.98
Record
48%
699-751 (1450)
pspspsps5Invested
$124.63
Value
$136
PnL
+$11.37
Record
32%
994-2093 (3087)
Invested
$96.42
Value
$126
PnL
+$29.58
Record
45%
666-802 (1468)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
Down — $5.0K
THG.
Down — $3.3K
bosona
Down — $2.4K
almach
Down — $2.3K
mo-money
Down — $2.3K
machinelearned
Down — $1.0K
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $1.3K
hoodquant
Down — $719
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $612