Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.5K

Smart Money Signal

46 of 59 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,380

Combined PnL$-9.3K

Up46 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares22,334

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Down — 22%Up — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.3K	54% 383-324 (707)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$115.61	40% 230-350 (580)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$27.86	99% 808-7 (815)
AL almach	Upavg 83¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$312.7	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
BO bosona	Upavg 82.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$259.43	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
MO mo-money	Upavg 77.3¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$364.46	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 46.8¢	$991.25	$2.1K	+$1.1K	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$10.2	51% 3258-3136 (6394)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 75¢	$707.01	$742.85	+$35.83	44% 704-899 (1603)
ST stepahead	Upavg 65.4¢	$606.87	$665.39	+$58.52	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 80.3¢	$535.76	$536.9	+$1.14	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 52.3¢	$601.38	$491.52	+$9.59	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$414.81	$419	+$4.19	98% 3543-73 (3616)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 64.4¢	$318.42	$445.21	+$126.79	46% 968-1122 (2090)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 74.7¢	$381.74	$317.5	-$64.24	46% 754-888 (1642)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 38.8¢	$665.19	—	-$660.74	60% 989-671 (1660)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 72.6¢	$309.72	$302.58	-$7.14	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 70.9¢	$271.82	$242.92	-$28.9	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
PB PBot-6	Upavg 49.3¢	$215.61	$351.36	+$135.75	50% 770-773 (1543)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 66.5¢	$151.63	$194.5	+$42.87	48% 699-751 (1450)
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658	Upavg 56¢	$157.48	$178.74	+$21.27	50% 748-742 (1490)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 83.1¢	$142.92	$141.31	-$1.61	53% 4509-3931 (8440)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 66.2¢	$132.48	$126.32	-$6.16	52% 833-774 (1607)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.2¢	$83.67	$126.32	+$42.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$48.81	—	-$48.81
MayorMamdani	Upavg 93.4¢	$116.05	$124.31	+$8.26	52% 2568-2395 (4963)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 62.8¢	$76.8	$117	+$40.2	31% 652-1435 (2087)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,845

Value

—

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

54%

383-324 (707)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$115.61

Record

40%

230-350 (580)

THG.

Invested

$2,757.82

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$27.86

Record

99%

808-7 (815)

almach

Invested

$1,526.49

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$312.7

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

bosona

Invested

$1,362.81

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$259.43

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

mo-money

Invested

$1,242.22

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$364.46

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$991.25

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

soswald1

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$10.2

Record

51%

3258-3136 (6394)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$707.01

Value

$742.85

PnL

+$35.83

Record

44%

704-899 (1603)

stepahead

Invested

$606.87

Value

$665.39

PnL

+$58.52

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

blue.birds

Invested

$535.76

Value

$536.9

PnL

+$1.14

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$601.38

Value

$491.52

PnL

+$9.59

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

hoodquant

Invested

$414.81

Value

$419

PnL

+$4.19

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$318.42

Value

$445.21

PnL

+$126.79

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

GoodFallen

Invested

$381.74

Value

$317.5

PnL

-$64.24

Record

46%

754-888 (1642)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$665.19

Value

—

PnL

-$660.74

Record

60%

989-671 (1660)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$309.72

Value

$302.58

PnL

-$7.14

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

asdcaxz

Invested

$271.82

Value

$242.92

PnL

-$28.9

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

PBot-6

Invested

$215.61

Value

$351.36

PnL

+$135.75

Record

50%

770-773 (1543)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$151.63

Value

$194.5

PnL

+$42.87

Record

48%

699-751 (1450)

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658

Invested

$157.48

Value

$178.74

PnL

+$21.27

Record

50%

748-742 (1490)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$142.92

Value

$141.31

PnL

-$1.61

Record

53%

4509-3931 (8440)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$132.48

Value

$126.32

PnL

-$6.16

Record

52%

833-774 (1607)

Both legs:

Up$83.6766.2¢+$42.66

Down$48.8132.2¢-$48.81

MayorMamdani

Invested

$116.05

Value

$124.31

PnL

+$8.26

Record

52%

2568-2395 (4963)

ply-pm0

Invested

$76.8

Value

$117

PnL

+$40.2

Record

31%

652-1435 (2087)

Smart Money Signal

46 of 59 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%32 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2ad347b3...50c5dd

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794672900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-8.3K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $5.0K

+$115.61

THG.

Up — $2.8K

+$27.86

almach

Up — $1.8K

+$312.7

bosona

Up — $1.6K

+$259.43

mo-money

Up — $1.6K

+$364.46

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.1K

+$1.1K

soswald1

Up — $950

+$10.2

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $742.85

+$35.83

stepahead

Up — $665.39

+$58.52

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