Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 90% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
68
Down 90%
$38.6K
$-8.3K
Smart Money Signal
61 of 68 top traders (90%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%38 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $8.9K | $9.0K | +$89.99 | 52% 1352-1265 (2617) |
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.5K | — | $-7.7K | 54% 383-324 (707) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.2K | $5.2K | -$977.7 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.8K | +$22.3 | 40% 230-350 (580) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 98.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$54.49 | 71% 1551-630 (2181) |
TH THG. | Downavg 99¢ | $3.3K | $3.4K | +$33.71 | 99% 808-7 (815) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$21.79 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 95.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$61.16 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 68.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$202.76 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 93.2¢ | $588.54 | $631.21 | +$42.67 | 46% 1021-1204 (2225) |
AL almach | Downavg 97¢ | $1.8K | $540.01 | +$71.15 | 50% 1354-1329 (2683) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $527.9 | $503.3 | +$14.18 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
BO bosona | Downavg 98¢ | $1.7K | $500.01 | +$286.53 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.7¢ | $491.87 | $478.99 | +$35.62 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 98¢ | $444.88 | $453.86 | +$8.98 | 42% 1609-2196 (3805) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 77.9¢ | $454.05 | $449.73 | -$4.32 | 44% 704-899 (1603) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 79.1¢ | $355.09 | $411.44 | +$56.35 | 48% 699-751 (1450) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 71.8¢ | $335.89 | $403.51 | +$67.61 | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
LI Little-big | Downavg 60.9¢ | $213.06 | $350 | +$136.94 | 51% 947-894 (1841) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 85¢ | $342.37 | $348.76 | +$35.71 | 31% 652-1435 (2087) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 97.4¢ | $274.63 | $281.99 | +$7.36 | 52% 2568-2395 (4963) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 63.4¢ | $227.02 | $357.97 | +$130.95 | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 73.5¢ | $139.47 | $180.24 | +$40.77 | 43% 1993-2596 (4589) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 88¢ | $228.87 | $171.83 | +$5.36 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 85¢ | $123.46 | $143.99 | +$20.53 | 50% 3041-2991 (6032) |
Invested
$8,908.63
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$89.99
Record
52%
1352-1265 (2617)
Invested
$8,540
Value
—
PnL
$-7.7K
Record
54%
383-324 (707)
Invested
$6,214.7
Value
$5.2K
PnL
-$977.7
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$22.3
Record
40%
230-350 (580)
BoneOhioInvested
$3,569.88
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$54.49
Record
71%
1551-630 (2181)
Invested
$3,337.29
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$33.71
Record
99%
808-7 (815)
Invested
$1,910.21
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$21.79
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
Invested
$1,498.33
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$61.16
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Invested
$1,060.22
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$202.76
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
machinelearnedInvested
$588.54
Value
$631.21
PnL
+$42.67
Record
46%
1021-1204 (2225)
Invested
$1,796.48
Value
$540.01
PnL
+$71.15
Record
50%
1354-1329 (2683)
Invested
$527.9
Value
$503.3
PnL
+$14.18
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$1,714.14
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$286.53
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Invested
$491.87
Value
$478.99
PnL
+$35.62
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$444.88
Value
$453.86
PnL
+$8.98
Record
42%
1609-2196 (3805)
Invested
$454.05
Value
$449.73
PnL
-$4.32
Record
44%
704-899 (1603)
Invested
$355.09
Value
$411.44
PnL
+$56.35
Record
48%
699-751 (1450)
Invested
$335.89
Value
$403.51
PnL
+$67.61
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Invested
$213.06
Value
$350
PnL
+$136.94
Record
51%
947-894 (1841)
Invested
$342.37
Value
$348.76
PnL
+$35.71
Record
31%
652-1435 (2087)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$274.63
Value
$281.99
PnL
+$7.36
Record
52%
2568-2395 (4963)
Invested
$227.02
Value
$357.97
PnL
+$130.95
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$139.47
Value
$180.24
PnL
+$40.77
Record
43%
1993-2596 (4589)
Invested
$228.87
Value
$171.83
PnL
+$5.36
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$123.46
Value
$143.99
PnL
+$20.53
Record
50%
3041-2991 (6032)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $9.0K
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $5.2K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.8K
BoneOhio
Down — $3.6K
THG.
Down — $3.4K
hoodquant
Down — $1.9K
mo-money
Down — $1.3K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
machinelearned
Down — $631.21