Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
44
Up 43%
16 arb excluded
$12.3K
$-17.2K
Smart Money Signal
19 of 44 top traders (43%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed19 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 54% 383-324 (707) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.9K | 40% 230-350 (580) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 55.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$43.9 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 50.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$2.23 | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 49.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$65.23 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
0X 0xNuttawutCTR | Upavg 52¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | 52% 59-55 (114) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 46¢ | $985.72 | — | -$985.72 | 44% 704-899 (1603) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$851.63 | 51% 3258-3136 (6394) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 50.9¢ | $715.08 | $737.37 | +$22.28 | 46% 754-888 (1642) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 58.4¢ | $790.54 | $730.69 | -$59.85 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 60.5¢ | $709.84 | $650.06 | -$10.75 | 31% 652-1435 (2087) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 54.1¢ | $575.19 | $603.71 | +$28.52 | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $672.33 | $511.88 | +$21.76 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $251.83 | $511.88 | +$266.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $251.91 | — | -$244.66 | |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $620.86 | $483.23 | -$137.63 | 27% 463-1249 (1712) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 53.1¢ | $439.3 | $458.79 | +$25.61 | 53% 4509-3931 (8440) |
MO mo-moneyARB<$100 | Upavg 53.5¢ | $505.94 | $205.99 | -$299.95 | 50% 1342-1353 (2695) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.5¢ | $390.8 | — | -$390.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 55.9¢ | $115.14 | $205.99 | +$90.86 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 48.1¢ | $389.44 | — | -$389.44 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.3¢ | $386.02 | $458.01 | +$72 | 47% 2083-2336 (4419) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.3¢ | $239.45 | $458.01 | +$218.56 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47¢ | $146.56 | — | -$146.56 | |
 ohioism | Downavg 50.1¢ | $346.44 | $359.95 | +$14.66 | 47% 1998-2233 (4231) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $351.96 | $246.17 | -$105.8 | 40% 724-1091 (1815) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40¢ | $204.13 | — | -$204.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.1¢ | $147.83 | $246.17 | +$98.34 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 49¢ | $384.15 | — | -$375.9 | 52% 833-774 (1607) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670CTR | Upavg 37.2¢ | $286.41 | — | -$286.41 | 45% 666-802 (1468) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 76.2¢ | $293.13 | $344.13 | +$51 | 48% 699-751 (1450) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 66.8¢ | $217.96 | $297.97 | +$80.01 | 43% 1993-2596 (4589) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $256.41 | $259 | +$2.59 | 98% 3543-73 (3616) |
Invested
$8,824
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
54%
383-324 (707)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.9K
Record
40%
230-350 (580)
Invested
$1,467.75
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$43.9
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$1,221.98
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$2.23
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
Invested
$1,097.5
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$65.23
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
Invested
$1,039.93
Value
—
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
52%
59-55 (114)
Invested
$985.72
Value
—
PnL
-$985.72
Record
44%
704-899 (1603)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$851.63
Record
51%
3258-3136 (6394)
Invested
$715.08
Value
$737.37
PnL
+$22.28
Record
46%
754-888 (1642)
Invested
$790.54
Value
$730.69
PnL
-$59.85
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$709.84
Value
$650.06
PnL
-$10.75
Record
31%
652-1435 (2087)
Invested
$575.19
Value
$603.71
PnL
+$28.52
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Invested
$672.33
Value
$511.88
PnL
+$21.76
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Both legs:
NIULAI4Invested
$620.86
Value
$483.23
PnL
-$137.63
Record
27%
463-1249 (1712)
FairValueMachineInvested
$439.3
Value
$458.79
PnL
+$25.61
Record
53%
4509-3931 (8440)
Invested
$505.94
Value
$205.99
PnL
-$299.95
Record
50%
1342-1353 (2695)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$389.44
Value
—
PnL
-$389.44
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
Invested
$386.02
Value
$458.01
PnL
+$72
Record
47%
2083-2336 (4419)
Both legs:
ohioismInvested
$346.44
Value
$359.95
PnL
+$14.66
Record
47%
1998-2233 (4231)
x-MoneyForWhiskasARB<$100Invested
$351.96
Value
$246.17
PnL
-$105.8
Record
40%
724-1091 (1815)
Both legs:
Invested
$384.15
Value
—
PnL
-$375.9
Record
52%
833-774 (1607)
Invested
$286.41
Value
—
PnL
-$286.41
Record
45%
666-802 (1468)
Invested
$293.13
Value
$344.13
PnL
+$51
Record
48%
699-751 (1450)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$217.96
Value
$297.97
PnL
+$80.01
Record
43%
1993-2596 (4589)
Invested
$256.41
Value
$259
PnL
+$2.59
Record
98%
3543-73 (3616)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $1.5K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $1.2K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.2K
0xNuttawut
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
Down — $737.37
asdcaxz
Down — $730.69