Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
55
Up 62%
4 arb excluded
$22.1K
$-5.6K
Smart Money Signal
34 of 55 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | $7.9K | -$22.04 | 54% 383-324 (707) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$280.74 | 40% 230-350 (580) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 45.1¢ | $885.75 | $1.3K | +$395.03 | 60% 989-671 (1660) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 63¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 55% 4364-3577 (7941) |
CR CrouchPredictionsCTR | Downavg 60.2¢ | $1.3K | — | $-1.3K | 46% 968-1122 (2090) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 59.6¢ | $985.05 | $1.0K | +$25.29 | 31% 652-1435 (2087) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 48.1¢ | $1.1K | — | $-1.1K | 44% 704-899 (1603) |
 NIULAI4 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $750.19 | $859.74 | +$109.55 | 27% 463-1249 (1712) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 41.7¢ | $592.63 | $719.9 | +$162.57 | 46% 754-888 (1642) |
BL blue.birdsCTR | Downavg 68.4¢ | $682.75 | — | -$682.75 | 51% 4952-4670 (9622) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.8¢ | $423.22 | $833.12 | +$409.9 | 50% 1846-1828 (3674) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 60.9¢ | $626.39 | $626.89 | +$5.68 | 50% 4343-4417 (8760) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 51.2¢ | $605.44 | — | -$485.11 | 54% 3373-2881 (6254) |
BO bosona | Upavg 79.1¢ | $437.32 | $382.64 | -$54.67 | 51% 4599-4456 (9055) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 57.1¢ | $365.18 | — | -$364.82 | 52% 2153-1992 (4145) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 46.7¢ | $293.13 | $319.99 | +$60.07 | 53% 4509-3931 (8440) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Upavg 48.3¢ | $219.45 | $317.62 | +$131.37 | 40% 724-1091 (1815) |
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894 | Upavg 78.7¢ | $235.86 | $248.61 | +$12.75 | 51% 741-719 (1460) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 58.2¢ | $197.53 | $244.17 | +$51.51 | 52% 833-774 (1607) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Upavg 54.9¢ | $213.37 | $235.51 | +$22.14 | 48% 699-751 (1450) |
AS asdaefef | Upavg 77.8¢ | $274.95 | $233.98 | -$40.97 | 67% 3285-1642 (4927) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 66.8¢ | $249.76 | $230.96 | -$9.31 | 63% 3881-2327 (6208) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 56.5¢ | $201.01 | $198.12 | -$2.9 | 46% 1021-1204 (2225) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.5¢ | $111.85 | $198.12 | +$86.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.9¢ | $89.16 | — | -$89.16 | |
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37cARB<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $188.79 | $152.5 | -$36.29 | 59% 933-652 (1585) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 66¢ | $118.85 | — | -$118.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 45.9¢ | $69.95 | $152.5 | +$82.56 | |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR | Downavg 76.1¢ | $186.4 | — | -$186.4 | 59% 922-637 (1559) |
Invested
$8,809
Value
$7.9K
PnL
-$22.04
Record
54%
383-324 (707)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$280.74
Record
40%
230-350 (580)
Invested
$885.75
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$395.03
Record
60%
989-671 (1660)
Invested
$1,092.76
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
55%
4364-3577 (7941)
Invested
$1,314.03
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
46%
968-1122 (2090)
Invested
$985.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$25.29
Record
31%
652-1435 (2087)
Invested
$1,120.35
Value
—
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
44%
704-899 (1603)
NIULAI4Invested
$750.19
Value
$859.74
PnL
+$109.55
Record
27%
463-1249 (1712)
Invested
$592.63
Value
$719.9
PnL
+$162.57
Record
46%
754-888 (1642)
Invested
$682.75
Value
—
PnL
-$682.75
Record
51%
4952-4670 (9622)
Invested
$423.22
Value
$833.12
PnL
+$409.9
Record
50%
1846-1828 (3674)
Invested
$626.39
Value
$626.89
PnL
+$5.68
Record
50%
4343-4417 (8760)
Invested
$605.44
Value
—
PnL
-$485.11
Record
54%
3373-2881 (6254)
Invested
$437.32
Value
$382.64
PnL
-$54.67
Record
51%
4599-4456 (9055)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$365.18
Value
—
PnL
-$364.82
Record
52%
2153-1992 (4145)
FairValueMachineInvested
$293.13
Value
$319.99
PnL
+$60.07
Record
53%
4509-3931 (8440)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$219.45
Value
$317.62
PnL
+$131.37
Record
40%
724-1091 (1815)
Invested
$235.86
Value
$248.61
PnL
+$12.75
Record
51%
741-719 (1460)
Invested
$197.53
Value
$244.17
PnL
+$51.51
Record
52%
833-774 (1607)
Invested
$213.37
Value
$235.51
PnL
+$22.14
Record
48%
699-751 (1450)
Invested
$274.95
Value
$233.98
PnL
-$40.97
Record
67%
3285-1642 (4927)
Invested
$249.76
Value
$230.96
PnL
-$9.31
Record
63%
3881-2327 (6208)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$201.01
Value
$198.12
PnL
-$2.9
Record
46%
1021-1204 (2225)
Both legs:
Invested
$188.79
Value
$152.5
PnL
-$36.29
Record
59%
933-652 (1585)
Both legs:
Invested
$186.4
Value
—
PnL
-$186.4
Record
59%
922-637 (1559)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Up — $7.9K
arcsine-barrister
Up — $5.0K
Bonereaper
Up — $1.3K
stepahead
CTRDown — $0
CrouchPredictions
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm0
Up — $1.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
NIULAI4
Up — $859.74
GoodFallen
Up — $719.9
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0