Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET

Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.6K

Combined PnL

$-6.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

49 of 61 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,909

Combined PnL$-7.4K

Down49 traders

Total Value$19.3K

Total Shares19,252

Combined PnL+$494.3

Up — 20%Down — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.8K	—	$-8.1K	54% 383-324 (707)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$24.65	40% 230-350 (580)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$33.67	99% 808-7 (815)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$17.2	98% 3543-73 (3616)
AL almach	Downavg 85.1¢	$904.54	$974.98	+$70.44	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
MO mo-money	Downavg 78.8¢	$664.87	$843.95	+$179.08	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
BO bosona	Downavg 84¢	$680.67	$810.55	+$129.89	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 77.2¢	$621.12	$748.37	+$127.25	46% 968-1122 (2090)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 66.8¢	$692.52	$658.36	-$32.37	60% 989-671 (1660)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 77.5¢	$395.38	$510	+$114.62	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 54.8¢	$601.5	$505.34	-$1.12	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
ST stepahead	Downavg 73¢	$472.78	$502.54	+$29.77	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 81.1¢	$543.16	$491.86	-$51.3	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 76.4¢	$568.08	$424.91	-$143.17	44% 704-899 (1603)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 90.1¢	$396.75	$359.89	-$13.37	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
machinelearned	Downavg 82.6¢	$223.27	$258.64	+$35.37	46% 1021-1204 (2225)
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335	Downavg 83.6¢	$308.57	$235.65	-$72.92	50% 732-742 (1474)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 71.7¢	$242.24	$255.27	+$13.03	52% 833-774 (1607)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 66.4¢	$229.78	$233.9	+$4.12	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$220.03	$221.6	+$1.57	45% 666-802 (1468)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.5¢	$145.23	$221.6	+$76.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.9¢	$74.79	—	-$74.79
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 73.7¢	$235.63	$198.73	-$31.5	46% 754-888 (1642)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 93.2¢	$173.59	$186.29	+$12.71	52% 2568-2395 (4963)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76¢	$173.88	$184.83	+$10.94	31% 652-1435 (2087)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 89.8¢	$163.97	$164.99	+$1.02	51% 817-778 (1595)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Downavg 60.9¢	$98.25	$136.58	+$38.33	51% 750-730 (1480)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,793

Value

—

PnL

$-8.1K

Record

54%

383-324 (707)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$24.65

Record

40%

230-350 (580)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,333.33

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$33.67

Record

99%

808-7 (815)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,022.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$17.2

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

almach

Down

Invested

$904.54

Value

$974.98

PnL

+$70.44

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$664.87

Value

$843.95

PnL

+$179.08

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

bosona

Down

Invested

$680.67

Value

$810.55

PnL

+$129.89

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$621.12

Value

$748.37

PnL

+$127.25

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$692.52

Value

$658.36

PnL

-$32.37

Record

60%

989-671 (1660)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$395.38

Value

$510

PnL

+$114.62

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$601.5

Value

$505.34

PnL

-$1.12

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$472.78

Value

$502.54

PnL

+$29.77

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$543.16

Value

$491.86

PnL

-$51.3

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$568.08

Value

$424.91

PnL

-$143.17

Record

44%

704-899 (1603)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$396.75

Value

$359.89

PnL

-$13.37

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$223.27

Value

$258.64

PnL

+$35.37

Record

46%

1021-1204 (2225)

0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335

Down

Invested

$308.57

Value

$235.65

PnL

-$72.92

Record

50%

732-742 (1474)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$242.24

Value

$255.27

PnL

+$13.03

Record

52%

833-774 (1607)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$229.78

Value

$233.9

PnL

+$4.12

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.03

Value

$221.6

PnL

+$1.57

Record

45%

666-802 (1468)

Both legs:

Down$145.2365.5¢+$76.36

Up$74.7931.9¢-$74.79

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$235.63

Value

$198.73

PnL

-$31.5

Record

46%

754-888 (1642)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$173.59

Value

$186.29

PnL

+$12.71

Record

52%

2568-2395 (4963)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$173.88

Value

$184.83

PnL

+$10.94

Record

31%

652-1435 (2087)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$163.97

Value

$164.99

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

817-778 (1595)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Down

Invested

$98.25

Value

$136.58

PnL

+$38.33

Record

51%

750-730 (1480)

Smart Money Signal

Down

49 of 61 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%33 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x59f5f861...05a7c6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794671400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Up — $0

$-8.1K

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

+$24.65

THG.

Down — $3.4K

+$33.67

hoodquant

Down — $1.0K

+$17.2

almach

Down — $974.98

+$70.44

mo-money

Down — $843.95

+$179.08

bosona

Down — $810.55

+$129.89

CrouchPredictions

Down — $748.37

+$127.25

Bonereaper

Down — $658.36

-$32.37

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $510

+$114.62

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