Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

21 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.4K

Combined PnL

$419.64

Smart Money Signal

33 of 44 top traders (75%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up33 traders

Total Value$16.7K

Total Shares16,682

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,601

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.7K	$7.9K	+$46.58	54% 383-324 (707)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$4.0K	$7.9K	+$4.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$4.0K	—	$-4.2K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$173.39	40% 230-350 (580)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-2.3K
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$33.64	99% 808-7 (815)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$19.71	98% 3543-73 (3616)
MO mo-money	Upavg 78.2¢	$1.8K	$2.3K	+$500.1	50% 1342-1353 (2695)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$76.75	55% 4364-3577 (7941)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$927.31	$1.1K	+$204.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 13.2¢	$127.83	—	-$127.83
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99¢	$994.8	$1.0K	+$10.2	49% 1453-1538 (2991)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$950	+$1.9	51% 3258-3136 (6394)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	$950	+$475
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$467.5	—	-$473.1
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$984.78	$1.0K	+$43.42	46% 968-1122 (2090)
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.5¢	$807.44	$1.0K	+$220.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.2¢	$177.34	—	-$177.34
BO bosona	Upavg 88.2¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$195.16	51% 4599-4456 (9055)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 82.6¢	$698.32	$750.98	+$52.66	51% 4952-4670 (9622)
└ Down leg	Downavg 8.9¢	$78.06	—	-$78.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.6¢	$620.26	$750.98	+$130.71
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 75.7¢	$796.13	$766.99	-$26.96	60% 989-671 (1660)
AL almach	Upavg 85.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$212.13	50% 1354-1329 (2683)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 66.5¢	$627.6	$673.45	+$94.3	44% 704-899 (1603)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 83.2¢	$618.97	$524.81	-$2.98	50% 4343-4417 (8760)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$434.71	$473.94	+$39.23	31% 652-1435 (2087)
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.6¢	$62.64	—	-$62.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 78.5¢	$372.07	$473.94	+$101.87
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$607.32	$503.25	+$6.5	54% 3373-2881 (6254)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.9¢	$276.11	$503.25	+$253.19
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.7¢	$224.73	—	-$246.69
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 42.4¢	$405.48	$823.84	+$418.36	50% 1846-1828 (3674)
NIULAI4	Upavg 92.9¢	$567.77	$606.25	+$38.48	27% 463-1249 (1712)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.6¢	$252.97	$294.71	+$69.78	46% 754-888 (1642)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 92.9¢	$242.54	$251.75	+$9.21	51% 817-778 (1595)
└ Up leg	Upavg 92.9¢	$233.94	$251.75	+$17.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 3.6¢	$8.6	—	-$8.6
GA gansinimen	Upavg 67.5¢	$268.42	$228.22	+$7.79	51% 325-317 (642)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 95.9¢	$219.37	$224.2	+$5.08	49% 2315-2365 (4680)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 83.9¢	$224.91	$217.42	-$7.49	52% 2153-1992 (4145)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.9¢	$182.39	$217.42	+$35.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.8¢	$42.52	—	-$42.52
0X 0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100	Upavg 65.9¢	$205.68	$249.08	+$43.4	50% 748-742 (1490)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.9¢	$164.23	$249.08	+$84.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$41.45	—	-$41.45

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,711

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$46.58

Record

54%

383-324 (707)

Both legs:

Up$3,968.0550¢+$4.3K

Down$4,041.1450¢$-4.2K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$173.39

Record

40%

230-350 (580)

Both legs:

Up$2,49550¢+$2.5K

Down$1,522.9650¢$-2.3K

THG.

Invested

$3,330.36

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$33.64

Record

99%

808-7 (815)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,353.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$19.71

Record

98%

3543-73 (3616)

mo-money

Invested

$1,790.28

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$500.1

Record

50%

1342-1353 (2695)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$1,055.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$76.75

Record

55%

4364-3577 (7941)

Both legs:

Up$927.3181.9¢+$204.58

Down$127.8313.2¢-$127.83

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$994.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.2

Record

49%

1453-1538 (2991)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$950

PnL

+$1.9

Record

51%

3258-3136 (6394)

Both legs:

Up$47550¢+$475

Down$467.550¢-$473.1

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$984.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$43.42

Record

46%

968-1122 (2090)

Both legs:

Up$807.4478.5¢+$220.76

Down$177.3427.2¢-$177.34

bosona

Invested

$1,465.28

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$195.16

Record

51%

4599-4456 (9055)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$698.32

Value

$750.98

PnL

+$52.66

Record

51%

4952-4670 (9622)

Both legs:

Down$78.068.9¢-$78.06

Up$620.2682.6¢+$130.71

Bonereaper

Invested

$796.13

Value

$766.99

PnL

-$26.96

Record

60%

989-671 (1660)

almach

Invested

$1,214.23

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$212.13

Record

50%

1354-1329 (2683)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$627.6

Value

$673.45

PnL

+$94.3

Record

44%

704-899 (1603)

asdcaxz

Invested

$618.97

Value

$524.81

PnL

-$2.98

Record

50%

4343-4417 (8760)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$434.71

Value

$473.94

PnL

+$39.23

Record

31%

652-1435 (2087)

Both legs:

Down$62.6411.6¢-$62.64

Up$372.0778.5¢+$101.87

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$607.32

Value

$503.25

PnL

+$6.5

Record

54%

3373-2881 (6254)

Both legs:

Up$276.1154.9¢+$253.19

Down$224.7344.7¢-$246.69

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$405.48

Value

$823.84

PnL

+$418.36

Record

50%

1846-1828 (3674)

NIULAI4

Invested

$567.77

Value

$606.25

PnL

+$38.48

Record

27%

463-1249 (1712)

GoodFallen

Invested

$252.97

Value

$294.71

PnL

+$69.78

Record

46%

754-888 (1642)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$242.54

Value

$251.75

PnL

+$9.21

Record

51%

817-778 (1595)

Both legs:

Up$233.9492.9¢+$17.81

Down$8.63.6¢-$8.6

gansinimen

Invested

$268.42

Value

$228.22

PnL

+$7.79

Record

51%

325-317 (642)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$219.37

Value

$224.2

PnL

+$5.08

Record

49%

2315-2365 (4680)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$224.91

Value

$217.42

PnL

-$7.49

Record

52%

2153-1992 (4145)

Both legs:

Up$182.3983.9¢+$35.03

Down$42.5219.8¢-$42.52

0xB129a54d3b23214728Dcc544034fc83067CD890C-1780260877658ARB<$100

Invested

$205.68

Value

$249.08

PnL

+$43.4

Record

50%

748-742 (1490)

Both legs:

Up$164.2365.9¢+$84.85

Down$41.4525.4¢-$41.45

Smart Money Signal

33 of 44 top traders (75%)21 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%24 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x048e9547...ca3100

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794671100

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

THG.

Up — $3.4K

+$33.64

hoodquant

Up — $1.4K

+$19.71

mo-money

Up — $2.3K

+$500.1

stepahead

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$76.75

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $1.0K

soswald1

Arbitrage — excluded

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

bosona

Up — $1.7K

+$195.16

Trade on Polymarket