Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.1K

Combined PnL

$-11.7K

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 55 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares14,414

Combined PnL$-13.7K

Down40 traders

Total Value$17.4K

Total Shares17,375

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Up — 27%Down — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.6K	55% 378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	40% 220-334 (554)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.43	99% 798-7 (805)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 97.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$74.18	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$18.66	98% 3454-73 (3527)
0X 0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048	Downavg 65¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$537.52	57% 17-13 (30)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 56.1¢	$1.1K	$966.52	-$89.2	60% 975-657 (1632)
AL almach	Downavg 71.4¢	$733.79	$972.94	+$239.16	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$935	-$6.2	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$467.5	$935	+$468.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 65.3¢	$769.41	$881.83	+$112.43	46% 948-1109 (2057)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 55.6¢	$775.71	$760.54	+$238.91	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 73.9¢	$783.41	$591.76	-$191.65	44% 692-885 (1577)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 68.2¢	$525.35	$548.61	+$23.26	46% 738-878 (1616)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 54.6¢	$632.13	$488.71	+$3.61	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$754.9	$299.39	-$455.51	46% 1010-1189 (2199)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.8¢	$187.88	$299.39	+$111.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.5¢	$567.02	—	-$567.02
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 85.3¢	$550.66	$400	-$144.26	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 99¢	$396	$400	+$4	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
ST stepahead	Downavg 63.9¢	$319	$376.85	+$57.85	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62.3¢	$383.38	$338.6	-$44.78	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
BO bosonaARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$463.42	$252.25	-$211.16	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.9¢	$209.06	$252.25	+$43.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$254.35	—	-$254.35
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 69.1¢	$334.14	$290.57	-$42.38	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
MO mo-money	Downavg 72.3¢	$573.15	$238.4	+$179.68	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 54.7¢	$171.07	$235.28	+$64.21	52% 819-763 (1582)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 67.1¢	$150.99	$158.34	+$7.35	31% 639-1422 (2061)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 56.8¢	$112.5	$147.12	+$44.27	40% 710-1080 (1790)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,941

Value

—

PnL

$-8.6K

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

THG.

Down

Invested

$3,309.57

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.43

Record

99%

798-7 (805)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$2,139.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$74.18

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,847.34

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$18.66

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

Down

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$537.52

Record

57%

17-13 (30)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,055.72

Value

$966.52

PnL

-$89.2

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

almach

Down

Invested

$733.79

Value

$972.94

PnL

+$239.16

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$935

PnL

-$6.2

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

Both legs:

Invested

$769.41

Value

$881.83

PnL

+$112.43

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$775.71

Value

$760.54

PnL

+$238.91

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$783.41

Value

$591.76

PnL

-$191.65

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$525.35

Value

$548.61

PnL

+$23.26

Record

46%

738-878 (1616)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$632.13

Value

$488.71

PnL

+$3.61

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$754.9

Value

$299.39

PnL

-$455.51

Record

46%

1010-1189 (2199)

Both legs:

Down$187.8862.8¢+$111.51

Up$567.0240.5¢-$567.02

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$550.66

Value

$400

PnL

-$144.26

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

cryingbabydicer87

Down

Invested

$396

Value

$400

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$319

Value

$376.85

PnL

+$57.85

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$383.38

Value

$338.6

PnL

-$44.78

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

bosonaARB<$100

Invested

$463.42

Value

$252.25

PnL

-$211.16

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

Both legs:

Down$209.0682.9¢+$43.19

Up$254.3537.2¢-$254.35

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$334.14

Value

$290.57

PnL

-$42.38

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$573.15

Value

$238.4

PnL

+$179.68

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$171.07

Value

$235.28

PnL

+$64.21

Record

52%

819-763 (1582)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$150.99

Value

$158.34

PnL

+$7.35

Record

31%

639-1422 (2061)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$112.5

Value

$147.12

PnL

+$44.27

Record

40%

710-1080 (1790)

Smart Money Signal

Down

40 of 55 top traders (73%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x74e022dd...924510

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794666900

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

THG.

Down — $3.3K

+$33.43

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $2.1K

-$74.18

hoodquant

Down — $1.9K

+$18.66

0x246bE8A4e3805E318801B79AD1Ee1268d5fbFB5b-1773192326048

Down — $1.5K

+$537.52

Bonereaper

Down — $966.52

-$89.2

almach

Down — $972.94

+$239.16

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.2

CrouchPredictions

Down — $881.83

+$112.43

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