Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 39% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 39%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$-16.1K

Smart Money Signal

20 of 51 top traders (39%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up20 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares18,575

Combined PnL$-16.2K

Down31 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares8,288

Combined PnL+$35.2

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Upavg 50¢	$8.9K	—	$-8.4K	55% 378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerCTR	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	—	$-4.8K	40% 220-334 (554)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 64.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$154.6	46% 948-1109 (2057)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 62.4¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$56.82	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$45.35	60% 975-657 (1632)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$950	$925	-$12.65	51% 3198-3088 (6286)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$462.5	$925	+$462.35
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$475	—	-$475
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 55.3¢	$822.43	$766.15	-$56.28	44% 692-885 (1577)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 40.5¢	$517.61	—	-$517.61	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
BO bosonaCTR	Upavg 67¢	$785.16	—	-$785.16	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 59.3¢	$802.33	$497.47	-$14.78	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$615.94	$492.11	-$5.56	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$248.06	$492.11	+$246.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$248.62	—	-$252.27
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 66.3¢	$466.02	$489.42	+$23.4	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
ST stepahead	Downavg 55.9¢	$436.06	$481.94	+$45.88	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 57.5¢	$381.75	$365.77	-$15.98	46% 738-878 (1616)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 53.7¢	$325.62	$414.61	+$88.99	52% 819-763 (1582)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 69.2¢	$414.18	$262.14	+$7.19	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 66.8¢	$202.45	$204.38	+$1.93	31% 639-1422 (2061)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 57.1¢	$150.73	$174.39	+$23.66	53% 4493-3921 (8414)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.1¢	$99.55	$174.39	+$74.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.8¢	$51.18	—	-$51.18
AL almach	Downavg 72.2¢	$526.1	$150.74	-$105.17	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
SU suntori	Downavg 39.6¢	$116.8	$143.78	+$71.34	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Downavg 53.6¢	$87.69	$147.37	+$59.69	45% 653-789 (1442)
OhioAI	Downavg 59.5¢	$155.79	$118.92	-$5.43	50% 712-704 (1416)
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Downavg 51.9¢	$87.3	$125.7	+$38.4	48% 685-741 (1426)
SP spartacrayCTR	Upavg 45.4¢	$120.95	—	-$120.95	59% 909-639 (1548)
HC HcrystallashARB<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$94.98	$80.98	-$14	58% 4940-3609 (8549)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$46.15	—	-$46.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$48.83	$80.98	+$32.14

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Invested

$8,887

Value

—

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

arcsine-barristerCTR

Invested

$5,000

Value

—

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,321.53

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$154.6

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,233.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$56.82

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,086.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$45.35

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$950

Value

$925

PnL

-$12.65

Record

51%

3198-3088 (6286)

Both legs:

Down$462.550¢+$462.35

Up$47550¢-$475

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$822.43

Value

$766.15

PnL

-$56.28

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$517.61

Value

—

PnL

-$517.61

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

bosonaCTR

Invested

$785.16

Value

—

PnL

-$785.16

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$802.33

Value

$497.47

PnL

-$14.78

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$615.94

Value

$492.11

PnL

-$5.56

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Down$248.0650.4¢+$246.7

Up$248.6249.2¢-$252.27

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$466.02

Value

$489.42

PnL

+$23.4

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$436.06

Value

$481.94

PnL

+$45.88

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$381.75

Value

$365.77

PnL

-$15.98

Record

46%

738-878 (1616)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$325.62

Value

$414.61

PnL

+$88.99

Record

52%

819-763 (1582)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$414.18

Value

$262.14

PnL

+$7.19

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$202.45

Value

$204.38

PnL

+$1.93

Record

31%

639-1422 (2061)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150.73

Value

$174.39

PnL

+$23.66

Record

53%

4493-3921 (8414)

Both legs:

Down$99.5557.1¢+$74.84

Up$51.1833.8¢-$51.18

almach

Down

Invested

$526.1

Value

$150.74

PnL

-$105.17

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

suntori

Down

Invested

$116.8

Value

$143.78

PnL

+$71.34

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Down

Invested

$87.69

Value

$147.37

PnL

+$59.69

Record

45%

653-789 (1442)

OhioAI

Down

Invested

$155.79

Value

$118.92

PnL

-$5.43

Record

50%

712-704 (1416)

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Down

Invested

$87.3

Value

$125.7

PnL

+$38.4

Record

48%

685-741 (1426)

spartacrayCTR

Invested

$120.95

Value

—

PnL

-$120.95

Record

59%

909-639 (1548)

HcrystallashARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.98

Value

$80.98

PnL

-$14

Record

58%

4940-3609 (8549)

Both legs:

Up$46.1545.1¢-$46.15

Down$48.8360.3¢+$32.14

Smart Money Signal

20 of 51 top traders (39%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x709c990b...282d38

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794666600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $0

arcsine-barrister

Up — $0

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.2K

-$154.6

blue.birds

Down — $1.2K

-$56.82

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

+$45.35

soswald1

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$12.65

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $766.15

-$56.28

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

bosona

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $497.47

-$14.78

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