Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 70%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

$-7.2K

Smart Money Signal

43 of 61 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares16,022

Combined PnL$-12.6K

Up43 traders

Total Value$27.7K

Total Shares27,672

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Down — 30%Up — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	—	$-7.5K	55% 378-311 (689)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	+$478.09	40% 220-334 (554)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 28.5¢	$1.1K	$3.1K	+$2.0K	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 80.1¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0.32	46% 948-1109 (2057)
BO bosona	Upavg 59.3¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$709.81	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
BL blue.birds	Upavg 58.7¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$203.72	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
AL almach	Upavg 56.9¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$337.18	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 54.2¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.2K	60% 975-657 (1632)
MO mo-money	Upavg 62.4¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	+$498.46	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$60.88	44% 692-885 (1577)
ST stepahead	Upavg 64.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$18.98	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 54.4¢	$746.47	$878.48	+$132.01	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
NIULAI4	Upavg 85.1¢	$793.14	$848.54	+$55.4	27% 452-1236 (1688)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 65.4¢	$634.36	$656.94	+$26.38	46% 738-878 (1616)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 61¢	$440.62	$516.4	+$80.09	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$695.64	$489.44	+$5.71	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$242.39	$489.44	+$248.91
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$246.24	—	-$243.21
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670	Upavg 73.3¢	$441.66	$550.7	+$109.04	45% 653-789 (1442)
0X 0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894	Upavg 64.5¢	$365.26	$393.06	+$27.8	51% 725-709 (1434)
SU suntori	Upavg 87.1¢	$356.87	$333.66	-$23.21	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 69.9¢	$380.46	$298.31	-$82.15	53% 4493-3921 (8414)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 48.7¢	$251.3	$259.6	+$8.3	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.7¢	$126.49	$259.6	+$133.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 32¢	$124.81	—	-$124.81
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877	Upavg 62.1¢	$225.76	$332.94	+$107.18	48% 685-741 (1426)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 65.1¢	$293.47	$259.77	-$28.85	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 89.1¢	$682.03	$254.74	-$77.65	31% 639-1422 (2061)
0X 0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212	Upavg 47.5¢	$213	$276.62	+$63.62	51% 737-718 (1455)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR

Down

Invested

$8,635

Value

—

PnL

$-7.5K

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$478.09

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,107.69

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$2,107.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0.32

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

bosona

Invested

$1,765.73

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$709.81

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

blue.birds

Invested

$1,783.06

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$203.72

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

almach

Invested

$1,287.65

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$337.18

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$2,183.12

Value

—

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

mo-money

Invested

$1,986.12

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$498.46

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,381.52

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$60.88

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

stepahead

Invested

$1,137.01

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.98

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$746.47

Value

$878.48

PnL

+$132.01

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

NIULAI4

Invested

$793.14

Value

$848.54

PnL

+$55.4

Record

27%

452-1236 (1688)

GoodFallen

Invested

$634.36

Value

$656.94

PnL

+$26.38

Record

46%

738-878 (1616)

asdcaxz

Invested

$440.62

Value

$516.4

PnL

+$80.09

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$695.64

Value

$489.44

PnL

+$5.71

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$242.3949.5¢+$248.91

Down$246.2450.1¢-$243.21

0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670

Invested

$441.66

Value

$550.7

PnL

+$109.04

Record

45%

653-789 (1442)

0x941743De228c1339B996ae09cc84BD8179D86e5e-1780214631894

Invested

$365.26

Value

$393.06

PnL

+$27.8

Record

51%

725-709 (1434)

suntori

Invested

$356.87

Value

$333.66

PnL

-$23.21

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$380.46

Value

$298.31

PnL

-$82.15

Record

53%

4493-3921 (8414)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$251.3

Value

$259.6

PnL

+$8.3

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

Both legs:

Up$126.4948.7¢+$133.11

Down$124.8132¢-$124.81

0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877

Invested

$225.76

Value

$332.94

PnL

+$107.18

Record

48%

685-741 (1426)

asdaefef

Invested

$293.47

Value

$259.77

PnL

-$28.85

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

ply-pm0

Invested

$682.03

Value

$254.74

PnL

-$77.65

Record

31%

639-1422 (2061)

0x7743AEa53ACd19E496C1C515EB0a143fb437fB42-1780258394212

Invested

$213

Value

$276.62

PnL

+$63.62

Record

51%

737-718 (1455)

Smart Money Signal

43 of 61 top traders (70%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4bea9880...519cfc

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794666300

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

CTR

Down — $0

$-7.5K

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.3K

+$478.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $3.1K

+$2.0K

CrouchPredictions

Up — $2.1K

+$0.32

bosona

Up — $2.0K

+$709.81

blue.birds

Up — $1.9K

+$203.72

almach

Up — $1.6K

+$337.18

Bonereaper

CTR

Down — $0

$-2.2K

mo-money

Up — $1.5K

+$498.46

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.4K

+$60.88

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