Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
53
Up 43%
1 arb excluded
$7.2K
$-14.4K
Smart Money Signal
23 of 53 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed23 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.9K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 378-311 (689) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.7K | 40% 220-334 (554) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $978.14 | $988.08 | +$9.94 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$942.53 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 64.4¢ | $767.95 | $844.51 | +$77.85 | 60% 975-657 (1632) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 82.4¢ | $686.25 | $672.12 | -$14.14 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 86.6¢ | $568.39 | $600.78 | +$32.4 | 49% 1308-1342 (2650) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51¢ | $539.42 | $492.71 | -$1.66 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
AL almach | Downavg 81.8¢ | $371.27 | $453.82 | +$82.55 | 50% 1325-1312 (2637) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.5¢ | $541.55 | $379.88 | -$161.67 | 44% 692-885 (1577) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 56.3¢ | $394.86 | $331.95 | -$33.82 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 81.6¢ | $316.22 | $310.66 | -$5.56 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 67.5¢ | $264.55 | $199.17 | -$65.38 | 46% 738-878 (1616) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 38.6¢ | $216.52 | — | -$216.52 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 61.1¢ | $180.99 | $169.5 | -$11.49 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 66.9¢ | $105.21 | $157.23 | +$52.02 | 40% 710-1080 (1790) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $138.82 | $161.28 | +$22.46 | 50% 719-730 (1449) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 63.2¢ | $148.21 | $149.63 | +$1.42 | 31% 639-1422 (2061) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 74¢ | $141.68 | $165.58 | +$23.9 | 53% 4493-3921 (8414) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $121.62 | $125.87 | +$4.25 | 50% 712-704 (1416) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57¢ | $71.78 | $125.87 | +$54.09 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.4¢ | $49.84 | — | -$49.84 | |
BO bosona | Downavg 74¢ | $142.8 | $113.53 | -$29.27 | 51% 4575-4432 (9007) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 72.7¢ | $121.14 | $114.77 | -$6.37 | 52% 819-763 (1582) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 49¢ | $97.06 | $198.08 | +$101.02 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 77.1¢ | $72.51 | $86.87 | +$7.79 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $80.52 | — | -$80.52 | 50% 747-748 (1495) |
Invested
$8,943
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.7K
Record
40%
220-334 (554)
Invested
$978.14
Value
$988.08
PnL
+$9.94
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$942.53
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$767.95
Value
$844.51
PnL
+$77.85
Record
60%
975-657 (1632)
Invested
$686.25
Value
$672.12
PnL
-$14.14
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$568.39
Value
$600.78
PnL
+$32.4
Record
49%
1308-1342 (2650)
Invested
$539.42
Value
$492.71
PnL
-$1.66
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$371.27
Value
$453.82
PnL
+$82.55
Record
50%
1325-1312 (2637)
Invested
$541.55
Value
$379.88
PnL
-$161.67
Record
44%
692-885 (1577)
Invested
$394.86
Value
$331.95
PnL
-$33.82
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Invested
$316.22
Value
$310.66
PnL
-$5.56
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$264.55
Value
$199.17
PnL
-$65.38
Record
46%
738-878 (1616)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$216.52
Value
—
PnL
-$216.52
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$180.99
Value
$169.5
PnL
-$11.49
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$105.21
Value
$157.23
PnL
+$52.02
Record
40%
710-1080 (1790)
Invested
$138.82
Value
$161.28
PnL
+$22.46
Record
50%
719-730 (1449)
Invested
$148.21
Value
$149.63
PnL
+$1.42
Record
31%
639-1422 (2061)
FairValueMachineInvested
$141.68
Value
$165.58
PnL
+$23.9
Record
53%
4493-3921 (8414)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$121.62
Value
$125.87
PnL
+$4.25
Record
50%
712-704 (1416)
Both legs:
Invested
$142.8
Value
$113.53
PnL
-$29.27
Record
51%
4575-4432 (9007)
Invested
$121.14
Value
$114.77
PnL
-$6.37
Record
52%
819-763 (1582)
Invested
$97.06
Value
$198.08
PnL
+$101.02
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
Invested
$72.51
Value
$86.87
PnL
+$7.79
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$80.52
Value
—
PnL
-$80.52
Record
50%
747-748 (1495)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $988.08
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $844.51
blue.birds
Down — $672.12
mo-money
Down — $600.78
ByteBadger92
Down — $492.71
almach
Down — $453.82
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $379.88