Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 72% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 72%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$29.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

42 of 58 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down42 traders

Total Value$27.1K

Total Shares27,093

Combined PnL+$155.29

Up16 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,205

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Down — 72%Up — 28%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Downavg 50¢	$8.5K	$7.8K	-$30.29	55% 378-311 (689)
arcsine-barrister	Downavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$22.97	40% 220-334 (554)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 51¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$174.04	50% 2139-2136 (4275)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.0K
└ Up leg	Upavg 29¢	$847.81	—	-$847.81
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$20.62	99% 798-7 (805)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$118.75	46% 948-1109 (2057)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 58.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$7.42	60% 975-657 (1632)
BL blue.birds	Downavg 72.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$27.27	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
ST stepahead	Downavg 66.4¢	$910.29	$967.07	+$56.79	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
AL almach	Downavg 68.5¢	$597.74	$872.85	+$275.11	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 64.4¢	$837.72	$697.43	-$112.39	44% 692-885 (1577)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 58.9¢	$668.6	$688.51	+$19.91	31% 639-1422 (2061)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 78.1¢	$786.97	$595.59	-$74.43	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 63.7¢	$567.63	$587.31	+$19.68	46% 738-878 (1616)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.1¢	$599.29	$492.06	+$13.11	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
MO mo-money	Downavg 75.4¢	$389.32	$516.62	+$127.31	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 68¢	$876.05	$479.16	-$59.18	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
BO bosona	Downavg 94¢	$2.2K	$500	-$357.21	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 68.5¢	$295.71	$321.7	+$44.02	53% 4493-3921 (8414)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Upavg 32.1¢	$329.37	—	-$215.48	52% 819-763 (1582)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$205.9	$207.98	+$2.08	98% 3454-73 (3527)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 52¢	$362.04	—	-$362.04	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
LI Little-big	Downavg 35.1¢	$58.62	$167	+$108.38	51% 926-882 (1808)
x-MoneyForWhiskas	Downavg 82¢	$213.12	$163.03	-$50.09	40% 710-1080 (1790)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 78¢	$145.84	$153.91	+$8.07	51% 800-760 (1560)
ohioism	Downavg 61.4¢	$102.62	$140	+$37.38	47% 1969-2182 (4151)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down

Invested

$8,529

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$30.29

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

arcsine-barrister

Down

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$22.97

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,912.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$174.04

Record

50%

2139-2136 (4275)

Both legs:

Down$1,064.2151¢+$1.0K

Up$847.8129¢-$847.81

THG.

Down

Invested

$2,041.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20.62

Record

99%

798-7 (805)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$1,275.01

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$118.75

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$1,116.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$7.42

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

blue.birds

Down

Invested

$1,207.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$27.27

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

stepahead

Down

Invested

$910.29

Value

$967.07

PnL

+$56.79

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

almach

Down

Invested

$597.74

Value

$872.85

PnL

+$275.11

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$837.72

Value

$697.43

PnL

-$112.39

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$668.6

Value

$688.51

PnL

+$19.91

Record

31%

639-1422 (2061)

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$786.97

Value

$595.59

PnL

-$74.43

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$567.63

Value

$587.31

PnL

+$19.68

Record

46%

738-878 (1616)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$599.29

Value

$492.06

PnL

+$13.11

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$389.32

Value

$516.62

PnL

+$127.31

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$876.05

Value

$479.16

PnL

-$59.18

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

bosona

Down

Invested

$2,242.2

Value

$500

PnL

-$357.21

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$295.71

Value

$321.7

PnL

+$44.02

Record

53%

4493-3921 (8414)

wzbbbCTR

Invested

$329.37

Value

—

PnL

-$215.48

Record

52%

819-763 (1582)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$205.9

Value

$207.98

PnL

+$2.08

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$362.04

Value

—

PnL

-$362.04

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$58.62

Value

$167

PnL

+$108.38

Record

51%

926-882 (1808)

x-MoneyForWhiskas

Down

Invested

$213.12

Value

$163.03

PnL

-$50.09

Record

40%

710-1080 (1790)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$145.84

Value

$153.91

PnL

+$8.07

Record

51%

800-760 (1560)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$102.62

Value

$140

PnL

+$37.38

Record

47%

1969-2182 (4151)

Smart Money Signal

Down

42 of 58 top traders (72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%25 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x11cf9dc9...7183c7

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794665400

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Down — $7.8K

-$30.29

arcsine-barrister

Down — $4.9K

-$22.97

uninformedfloww

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$174.04

THG.

Down — $2.1K

+$20.62

CrouchPredictions

Down — $1.4K

+$118.75

Bonereaper

Down — $1.1K

+$7.42

blue.birds

Down — $1.1K

-$27.27

stepahead

Down — $967.07

+$56.79

almach

Down — $872.85

+$275.11

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $697.43

-$112.39

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