Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Down 59%
8 arb excluded
$26.5K
$-5.1K
Smart Money Signal
30 of 51 top traders (59%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989 | Downavg 50¢ | $8.6K | $7.7K | +$45.63 | 55% 378-311 (689) |
 arcsine-barrister | Downavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.7K | -$45.28 | 40% 220-334 (554) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 71.4¢ | $2.9K | $2.7K | -$110.19 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 38.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$502.05 | 60% 975-657 (1632) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 45.8¢ | $1.2K | — | $-1.2K | 44% 692-885 (1577) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 77.1¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 63.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$46.75 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 66.3¢ | $1.0K | $971 | -$72.15 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $885.07 | -$5.18 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
 NIULAI4 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $751.35 | $870.06 | +$118.71 | 27% 452-1236 (1688) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $1.0K | $782.76 | +$3.92 | 31% 639-1422 (2061) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 51.4¢ | $675.09 | — | -$647.79 | 46% 738-878 (1616) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 55.5¢ | $716.63 | $707.47 | -$8.85 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 71.5¢ | $647.51 | $690.41 | +$42.89 | 49% 1308-1342 (2650) |
AL almach | Downavg 77.4¢ | $1.4K | $493.24 | -$339.82 | 50% 1325-1312 (2637) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $589.79 | — | -$473.47 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 38.5¢ | $289.53 | $407.47 | +$127.73 | 53% 4493-3921 (8414) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 52.8¢ | $668.29 | — | -$668.29 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 52¢ | $138.06 | $259.54 | +$121.48 | 46% 1010-1189 (2199) |
0X 0x3708CEF9f92678DF15A0473e36c45d68A16cdAf9-1780222715877 | Downavg 63.7¢ | $211.37 | $236.55 | +$25.17 | 48% 685-741 (1426) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 63.4¢ | $910.85 | — | -$174.38 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $201.53 | $205 | +$3.47 | 51% 800-760 (1560) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 62¢ | $183.55 | $202.72 | +$19.17 | 45% 653-789 (1442) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 44.8¢ | $148.53 | $183.74 | +$35.2 | 40% 710-1080 (1790) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $158.64 | $139.98 | -$18.66 | 59% 912-621 (1533) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.5¢ | $110.24 | — | -$110.24 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 34.6¢ | $48.39 | $139.98 | +$91.59 |
Invested
$8,638
Value
$7.7K
PnL
+$45.63
Record
55%
378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$45.28
Record
40%
220-334 (554)
Invested
$2,856.56
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$110.19
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Invested
$1,055.59
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$502.05
Record
60%
975-657 (1632)
Invested
$1,211.51
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
44%
692-885 (1577)
Invested
$1,516.43
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$1,103.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$46.75
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$1,043.15
Value
$971
PnL
-$72.15
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
Invested
$950
Value
$885.07
PnL
-$5.18
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
NIULAI4Invested
$751.35
Value
$870.06
PnL
+$118.71
Record
27%
452-1236 (1688)
Invested
$1,003.41
Value
$782.76
PnL
+$3.92
Record
31%
639-1422 (2061)
Invested
$675.09
Value
—
PnL
-$647.79
Record
46%
738-878 (1616)
Invested
$716.63
Value
$707.47
PnL
-$8.85
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$647.51
Value
$690.41
PnL
+$42.89
Record
49%
1308-1342 (2650)
Invested
$1,369.83
Value
$493.24
PnL
-$339.82
Record
50%
1325-1312 (2637)
Invested
$589.79
Value
—
PnL
-$473.47
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
FairValueMachineInvested
$289.53
Value
$407.47
PnL
+$127.73
Record
53%
4493-3921 (8414)
Invested
$668.29
Value
—
PnL
-$668.29
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
machinelearnedInvested
$138.06
Value
$259.54
PnL
+$121.48
Record
46%
1010-1189 (2199)
Invested
$211.37
Value
$236.55
PnL
+$25.17
Record
48%
685-741 (1426)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$910.85
Value
—
PnL
-$174.38
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$201.53
Value
$205
PnL
+$3.47
Record
51%
800-760 (1560)
Invested
$183.55
Value
$202.72
PnL
+$19.17
Record
45%
653-789 (1442)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$148.53
Value
$183.74
PnL
+$35.2
Record
40%
710-1080 (1790)
Invested
$158.64
Value
$139.98
PnL
-$18.66
Record
59%
912-621 (1533)
Both legs:
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
Down — $7.7K
arcsine-barrister
Down — $4.7K
CrouchPredictions
Down — $2.7K
Bonereaper
Down — $1.5K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $1.1K
stepahead
Down — $971
soswald1
Down — $885.07
NIULAI4
Down — $870.06