Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
60
Down 78%
$15.7K
$-12.8K
Smart Money Signal
46 of 60 top traders (77%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%31 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $9.0K | — | $-8.8K | 55% 378-311 (689) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.5¢ | $6.2K | $6.2K | +$33.27 | 51% 1328-1257 (2585) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.0K | 40% 220-334 (554) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.4¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$26.05 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 97.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$27.19 | 42% 1545-2147 (3692) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | $950 | +$0.23 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 80.5¢ | $585.6 | $727.82 | +$142.22 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 93.5¢ | $682.19 | $659.78 | -$22.41 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 75.7¢ | $554.15 | $532.93 | -$19.12 | 60% 975-657 (1632) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $539.54 | $491.29 | -$1.45 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 85.3¢ | $223.83 | $243.77 | +$19.94 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 76.8¢ | $206.75 | $234.95 | +$30.73 | 52% 819-763 (1582) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 70.3¢ | $210.58 | $202.16 | +$52.37 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 59.1¢ | $208.77 | $200.21 | -$8.56 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
 MayorMamdani | Downavg 98.6¢ | $183.31 | $186 | +$2.69 | 52% 2516-2359 (4875) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 71.3¢ | $147.34 | $176.86 | +$47.12 | 44% 692-885 (1577) |
AS asdaefef | Downavg 86.8¢ | $171.48 | $173.14 | +$1.66 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
0X 0x280E296e5f14091642208Ac24614826D9902fbd8-1780260958670 | Downavg 92.2¢ | $151.77 | $144 | -$7.77 | 45% 653-789 (1442) |
BO bosona | Downavg 95¢ | $660.73 | $136.49 | +$20.53 | 51% 4575-4432 (9007) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $102.58 | $121.61 | +$19.03 | 50% 719-730 (1449) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 48.3¢ | $100.94 | $114.94 | +$38.9 | 46% 738-878 (1616) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 98¢ | $113.97 | $116.3 | +$2.33 | 32% 980-2061 (3041) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $101.84 | — | -$101.84 | 50% 1823-1791 (3614) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 96.4¢ | $159.02 | $102.38 | -$56.64 | 46% 1010-1189 (2199) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 98¢ | $132.23 | $100 | -$32.23 | 31% 639-1422 (2061) |
Invested
$8,995
Value
—
PnL
$-8.8K
Record
55%
378-311 (689)
Invested
$6,164.08
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$33.27
Record
51%
1328-1257 (2585)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.0K
Record
40%
220-334 (554)
Invested
$1,614.94
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$26.05
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$1,245.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$27.19
Record
42%
1545-2147 (3692)
Invested
$950
Value
$950
PnL
+$0.23
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$585.6
Value
$727.82
PnL
+$142.22
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$682.19
Value
$659.78
PnL
-$22.41
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Invested
$554.15
Value
$532.93
PnL
-$19.12
Record
60%
975-657 (1632)
Invested
$539.54
Value
$491.29
PnL
-$1.45
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$223.83
Value
$243.77
PnL
+$19.94
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$206.75
Value
$234.95
PnL
+$30.73
Record
52%
819-763 (1582)
Invested
$210.58
Value
$202.16
PnL
+$52.37
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$208.77
Value
$200.21
PnL
-$8.56
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
MayorMamdaniInvested
$183.31
Value
$186
PnL
+$2.69
Record
52%
2516-2359 (4875)
Invested
$147.34
Value
$176.86
PnL
+$47.12
Record
44%
692-885 (1577)
Invested
$171.48
Value
$173.14
PnL
+$1.66
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$151.77
Value
$144
PnL
-$7.77
Record
45%
653-789 (1442)
Invested
$660.73
Value
$136.49
PnL
+$20.53
Record
51%
4575-4432 (9007)
Invested
$102.58
Value
$121.61
PnL
+$19.03
Record
50%
719-730 (1449)
Invested
$100.94
Value
$114.94
PnL
+$38.9
Record
46%
738-878 (1616)
pspspsps5Invested
$113.97
Value
$116.3
PnL
+$2.33
Record
32%
980-2061 (3041)
Invested
$101.84
Value
—
PnL
-$101.84
Record
50%
1823-1791 (3614)
machinelearnedInvested
$159.02
Value
$102.38
PnL
-$56.64
Record
46%
1010-1189 (2199)
Invested
$132.23
Value
$100
PnL
-$32.23
Record
31%
639-1422 (2061)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $6.2K
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $1.6K
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.3K
soswald1
Down — $950
uninformedfloww
Down — $727.82
CrouchPredictions
Down — $659.78
Bonereaper
Down — $532.93
ByteBadger92
Down — $491.29