Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
51
Up 40%
8 arb excluded
$14.3K
$-13.2K
Smart Money Signal
21 of 51 top traders (41%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed30 hold an outcome priced under 50%27 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-8.3K | 55% 378-311 (689) |
 arcsine-barrister | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | $4.4K | +$242 | 40% 220-334 (554) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$30 | 71% 1515-611 (2126) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$12.43 | 98% 3454-73 (3527) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Downavg 67.1¢ | $729.5 | — | -$694.07 | 44% 692-885 (1577) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 56.4¢ | $1.1K | $929.12 | -$195.25 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$924.41 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 28.7¢ | $410.8 | $834.22 | +$459.42 | 60% 975-657 (1632) |
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100 | Downavg 23.4¢ | $454.61 | $672.09 | +$217.48 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.9¢ | $167.03 | $672.09 | +$505.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.4¢ | $287.58 | — | -$287.58 | |
PL ply-pm0CTR | Downavg 48.9¢ | $638.07 | — | -$461.33 | 31% 639-1422 (2061) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 32.7¢ | $433.5 | $561.68 | +$200.83 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
ST stepaheadCTR | Downavg 60.7¢ | $423.28 | — | -$423.28 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 49.4¢ | $598.96 | — | -$473.18 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Downavg 65.2¢ | $443.47 | — | -$386.77 | 46% 738-878 (1616) |
 FairValueMachineCTR | Downavg 67.3¢ | $418.98 | — | -$396.48 | 53% 4493-3921 (8414) |
 NIULAI4CTR | Downavg 69¢ | $452.08 | — | -$452.08 | 27% 452-1236 (1688) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskasCTR | Downavg 62.6¢ | $321.94 | — | -$299.36 | 40% 710-1080 (1790) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 57.5¢ | $289.14 | — | -$289.14 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 79.4¢ | $491.46 | $426.77 | +$23.56 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 79.4¢ | $191.33 | — | -$255.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.2¢ | $146.08 | $426.77 | +$279.29 | |
AS asdaefefCTR | Downavg 79.8¢ | $288.11 | — | -$288.11 | 67% 3226-1609 (4835) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Upavg 25.3¢ | $47.25 | $187.03 | +$139.78 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
MO mo-moneyCTR | Downavg 83.2¢ | $189.55 | — | -$189.55 | 49% 1308-1342 (2650) |
0X 0xf3326D8Fc30F7Ed01BfAde12c706cb52c397B1c0-1780211395335 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $149.47 | $167.61 | +$18.14 | 50% 719-730 (1449) |
 OhioAIARB<$100 | Upavg 40.6¢ | $154.11 | $203.99 | +$49.88 | 50% 712-704 (1416) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68¢ | $71.27 | — | -$71.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.6¢ | $82.85 | $203.99 | +$121.15 | |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $92.3 | — | -$92.3 | 50% 1325-1312 (2637) |
Invested
$8,803
Value
—
PnL
$-8.3K
Record
55%
378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerInvested
$5,000
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$242
Record
40%
220-334 (554)
BoneOhioInvested
$2,970
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$30
Record
71%
1515-611 (2126)
Invested
$1,231.04
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$12.43
Record
98%
3454-73 (3527)
Invested
$729.5
Value
—
PnL
-$694.07
Record
44%
692-885 (1577)
Invested
$1,136.69
Value
$929.12
PnL
-$195.25
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$924.41
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$410.8
Value
$834.22
PnL
+$459.42
Record
60%
975-657 (1632)
Invested
$454.61
Value
$672.09
PnL
+$217.48
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Both legs:
Invested
$638.07
Value
—
PnL
-$461.33
Record
31%
639-1422 (2061)
Invested
$433.5
Value
$561.68
PnL
+$200.83
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$423.28
Value
—
PnL
-$423.28
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
Invested
$598.96
Value
—
PnL
-$473.18
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$443.47
Value
—
PnL
-$386.77
Record
46%
738-878 (1616)
FairValueMachineCTRInvested
$418.98
Value
—
PnL
-$396.48
Record
53%
4493-3921 (8414)
NIULAI4CTRInvested
$452.08
Value
—
PnL
-$452.08
Record
27%
452-1236 (1688)
x-MoneyForWhiskasCTRInvested
$321.94
Value
—
PnL
-$299.36
Record
40%
710-1080 (1790)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$289.14
Value
—
PnL
-$289.14
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
Invested
$491.46
Value
$426.77
PnL
+$23.56
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Both legs:
Invested
$288.11
Value
—
PnL
-$288.11
Record
67%
3226-1609 (4835)
Invested
$47.25
Value
$187.03
PnL
+$139.78
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
Invested
$189.55
Value
—
PnL
-$189.55
Record
49%
1308-1342 (2650)
Invested
$149.47
Value
$167.61
PnL
+$18.14
Record
50%
719-730 (1449)
OhioAIARB<$100Invested
$154.11
Value
$203.99
PnL
+$49.88
Record
50%
712-704 (1416)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.3
Value
—
PnL
-$92.3
Record
50%
1325-1312 (2637)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRDown — $0
arcsine-barrister
Up — $4.4K
BoneOhio
Up — $3.0K
hoodquant
Up — $1.2K
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $929.12
soswald1
CTRDown — $0
Bonereaper
Up — $834.22
CrouchPredictions
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
CTRDown — $0