Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
60
Up 42%
2 arb excluded
$6.3K
$-15.2K
Smart Money Signal
26 of 60 top traders (43%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%34 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $8.8K | — | $-7.9K | 55% 378-311 (689) |
 arcsine-barristerCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $5.0K | — | $-4.6K | 40% 220-334 (554) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $950 | — | -$871.55 | 51% 3198-3088 (6286) |
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 56.6¢ | $659.84 | $612.19 | -$44.55 | 60% 975-657 (1632) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 57.7¢ | $505.95 | — | -$505.95 | 50% 2139-2136 (4275) |
ST stepahead | Downavg 68.4¢ | $546.32 | $576.44 | +$30.11 | 55% 4342-3564 (7906) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 78.6¢ | $636.91 | $540.51 | -$17.05 | 50% 4298-4377 (8675) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $548.93 | $529.56 | -$19.38 | 31% 639-1422 (2061) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 48.2¢ | $561.52 | — | -$490.04 | 54% 3302-2813 (6115) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR | Upavg 29.7¢ | $461.07 | — | -$438.75 | 44% 692-885 (1577) |
MO mo-money | Downavg 91.5¢ | $422.19 | $426.27 | +$4.08 | 49% 1308-1342 (2650) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 71.3¢ | $380.41 | $391.71 | +$30.3 | 52% 4918-4624 (9542) |
CR CrouchPredictions | Downavg 59.2¢ | $332.8 | $376.29 | +$45.09 | 46% 948-1109 (2057) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.7¢ | $352.69 | $329.44 | -$23.25 | 52% 2111-1963 (4074) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 42.9¢ | $174.98 | $283.81 | +$108.83 | 46% 1010-1189 (2199) |
 x-MoneyForWhiskas | Downavg 56.3¢ | $193.69 | $243.66 | +$57.87 | 40% 710-1080 (1790) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 57.8¢ | $181.49 | $222.57 | +$53.25 | 53% 4493-3921 (8414) |
BO bosona | Downavg 92¢ | $315.32 | $224.33 | -$90.99 | 51% 4575-4432 (9007) |
GO GoodFallenCTR | Upavg 28.5¢ | $271.6 | — | -$228.4 | 46% 738-878 (1616) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530 | Downavg 82¢ | $126 | $153.66 | +$27.66 | 47% 1989-2244 (4233) |
 G-Penis-Monster | Downavg 36.8¢ | $55.25 | $129.6 | +$74.35 | 44% 1957-2530 (4487) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 61.3¢ | $73.58 | $120.01 | +$46.43 | 52% 819-763 (1582) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Downavg 87.8¢ | $157.32 | $119.83 | +$19.17 | 63% 3817-2281 (6098) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $108.08 | $110 | +$1.92 | 51% 800-760 (1560) |
 OhioAICTR<$100 | Upavg 45.3¢ | $79.52 | — | -$79.52 | 50% 712-704 (1416) |
Invested
$8,766
Value
—
PnL
$-7.9K
Record
55%
378-311 (689)
arcsine-barristerCTRInvested
$5,000
Value
—
PnL
$-4.6K
Record
40%
220-334 (554)
Invested
$950
Value
—
PnL
-$871.55
Record
51%
3198-3088 (6286)
Invested
$659.84
Value
$612.19
PnL
-$44.55
Record
60%
975-657 (1632)
Invested
$505.95
Value
—
PnL
-$505.95
Record
50%
2139-2136 (4275)
Invested
$546.32
Value
$576.44
PnL
+$30.11
Record
55%
4342-3564 (7906)
Invested
$636.91
Value
$540.51
PnL
-$17.05
Record
50%
4298-4377 (8675)
Invested
$548.93
Value
$529.56
PnL
-$19.38
Record
31%
639-1422 (2061)
Invested
$561.52
Value
—
PnL
-$490.04
Record
54%
3302-2813 (6115)
Invested
$461.07
Value
—
PnL
-$438.75
Record
44%
692-885 (1577)
Invested
$422.19
Value
$426.27
PnL
+$4.08
Record
49%
1308-1342 (2650)
Invested
$380.41
Value
$391.71
PnL
+$30.3
Record
52%
4918-4624 (9542)
Invested
$332.8
Value
$376.29
PnL
+$45.09
Record
46%
948-1109 (2057)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$352.69
Value
$329.44
PnL
-$23.25
Record
52%
2111-1963 (4074)
machinelearnedInvested
$174.98
Value
$283.81
PnL
+$108.83
Record
46%
1010-1189 (2199)
x-MoneyForWhiskasInvested
$193.69
Value
$243.66
PnL
+$57.87
Record
40%
710-1080 (1790)
FairValueMachineInvested
$181.49
Value
$222.57
PnL
+$53.25
Record
53%
4493-3921 (8414)
Invested
$315.32
Value
$224.33
PnL
-$90.99
Record
51%
4575-4432 (9007)
Invested
$271.6
Value
—
PnL
-$228.4
Record
46%
738-878 (1616)
Invested
$126
Value
$153.66
PnL
+$27.66
Record
47%
1989-2244 (4233)
G-Penis-MonsterInvested
$55.25
Value
$129.6
PnL
+$74.35
Record
44%
1957-2530 (4487)
Invested
$73.58
Value
$120.01
PnL
+$46.43
Record
52%
819-763 (1582)
Invested
$157.32
Value
$119.83
PnL
+$19.17
Record
63%
3817-2281 (6098)
Invested
$108.08
Value
$110
PnL
+$1.92
Record
51%
800-760 (1560)
OhioAICTR<$100Invested
$79.52
Value
—
PnL
-$79.52
Record
50%
712-704 (1416)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989
CTRUp — $0
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
Bonereaper
Down — $612.19
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
stepahead
Down — $576.44
asdcaxz
Down — $540.51
ply-pm0
Down — $529.56
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
CTRUp — $0