Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET

Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.2K

Combined PnL

$614.95

Smart Money Signal

41 of 52 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up41 traders

Total Value$35.7K

Total Shares35,712

Combined PnL+$727.53

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,394

Combined PnL-$112.58

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$9.0K	$9.0K	+$9.01	51% 1328-1257 (2585)
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989	Upavg 50¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	+$10.59	55% 378-311 (689)
arcsine-barrister	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	+$5.7	40% 220-334 (554)
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$33.37	99% 798-7 (805)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.89	50% 1823-1791 (3614)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$22.51	98% 3454-73 (3527)
BO bosona	Upavg 91.3¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$98.18	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 78.7¢	$522.71	$599.45	+$77.75	60% 975-657 (1632)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 55.2¢	$570.95	$490.17	+$5.06	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 96.3¢	$589.45	$611.99	+$22.54	42% 1545-2147 (3692)
cryingbabydicer87	Upavg 99.4¢	$309.11	$311.11	+$2	48% 1402-1515 (2917)
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 75.3¢	$295.96	$257.36	-$38.6	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.8¢	$102.19	—	-$102.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.3¢	$193.77	$257.36	+$63.59
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 78.8¢	$271.78	$279	+$7.22	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
AL almach	Upavg 93.7¢	$256.51	$273.76	+$17.25	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
machinelearned	Upavg 95¢	$460.44	$484.67	+$24.23	46% 1010-1189 (2199)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 86.1¢	$237.29	$246.71	+$9.42	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.1¢	$212.51	$246.71	+$34.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.1¢	$24.78	—	-$24.78
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 82.7¢	$235.72	$214.66	+$5.64	44% 692-885 (1577)
pspspsps5	Upavg 99¢	$228.17	$228.22	+$0.05	32% 980-2061 (3041)
AS asdaefef	Upavg 92¢	$185.65	$200.11	+$14.46	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
CR CrouchPredictions	Upavg 82.1¢	$294.02	$356.18	+$62.16	46% 948-1109 (2057)
MO mo-money	Upavg 93¢	$239.33	$257.34	+$18.01	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
DR drfc4eybh7i8	Upavg 90.5¢	$117.21	$129.48	+$12.27	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
LI Little-big	Upavg 55¢	$137.5	$250	+$112.5	51% 926-882 (1808)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 73.7¢	$108.3	$146.9	+$38.6	52% 819-763 (1582)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$60.77	$70.99	+$10.22	50% 3000-2949 (5949)

0x50f7

Invested

$8,999

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$9.01

Record

51%

1328-1257 (2585)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Invested

$8,665

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$10.59

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$5.7

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

THG.

Invested

$3,303.63

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$33.37

Record

99%

798-7 (805)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,665.11

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.89

Record

50%

1823-1791 (3614)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,470.34

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$22.51

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

bosona

Invested

$1,063.69

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$98.18

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

Bonereaper

Invested

$522.71

Value

$599.45

PnL

+$77.75

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$570.95

Value

$490.17

PnL

+$5.06

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$589.45

Value

$611.99

PnL

+$22.54

Record

42%

1545-2147 (3692)

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$309.11

Value

$311.11

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

1402-1515 (2917)

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$295.96

Value

$257.36

PnL

-$38.6

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

Both legs:

Down$102.1929.8¢-$102.19

Up$193.7775.3¢+$63.59

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$271.78

Value

$279

PnL

+$7.22

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

almach

Invested

$256.51

Value

$273.76

PnL

+$17.25

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

machinelearned

Invested

$460.44

Value

$484.67

PnL

+$24.23

Record

46%

1010-1189 (2199)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$237.29

Value

$246.71

PnL

+$9.42

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

Both legs:

Up$212.5186.1¢+$34.2

Down$24.7811.1¢-$24.78

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$235.72

Value

$214.66

PnL

+$5.64

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

pspspsps5

Invested

$228.17

Value

$228.22

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

980-2061 (3041)

asdaefef

Invested

$185.65

Value

$200.11

PnL

+$14.46

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

CrouchPredictions

Invested

$294.02

Value

$356.18

PnL

+$62.16

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

mo-money

Invested

$239.33

Value

$257.34

PnL

+$18.01

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

drfc4eybh7i8

Invested

$117.21

Value

$129.48

PnL

+$12.27

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

Little-big

Invested

$137.5

Value

$250

PnL

+$112.5

Record

51%

926-882 (1808)

wzbbb

Invested

$108.3

Value

$146.9

PnL

+$38.6

Record

52%

819-763 (1582)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$60.77

Value

$70.99

PnL

+$10.22

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

Smart Money Signal

41 of 52 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%28 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3cf61e4...1704cf

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794663900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Up — $9.0K

+$9.01

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Up — $8.5K

+$10.59

arcsine-barrister

Up — $4.9K

+$5.7

THG.

Up — $3.3K

+$33.37

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.7K

+$16.89

hoodquant

Up — $1.5K

+$22.51

bosona

Up — $1.2K

+$98.18

Bonereaper

Up — $599.45

+$77.75

ByteBadger92

Up — $490.17

+$5.06

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $611.99

+$22.54

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