Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - November 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.8K

Combined PnL

$233.08

Smart Money Signal

24 of 45 top traders (53%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up24 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,099

Combined PnL+$370.9

Down21 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares490

Combined PnL-$137.82

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$8.6K	$7.7K	-$17.72	55% 378-311 (689)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$3.8K	$7.7K	+$4.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$3.9K	—	$-4.1K
arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$51.19	40% 220-334 (554)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$2.5K	$5.0K	+$2.5K
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$2.2K	—	$-2.4K
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.7¢	$954.85	$967	+$12.15	98% 3454-73 (3527)
BO bosona	Upavg 84.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$203.43	51% 4575-4432 (9007)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Upavg 81.4¢	$775.34	$801.88	+$26.54	46% 948-1109 (2057)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.4¢	$652.54	$801.88	+$149.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 15.5¢	$122.8	—	-$122.8
machinelearned	Upavg 93.8¢	$844.07	$832.75	-$11.32	46% 1010-1189 (2199)
AL almach	Upavg 89.6¢	$895.84	$833.39	+$63.1	50% 1325-1312 (2637)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$583.26	$495	-$7.68	54% 3302-2813 (6115)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$267.83	$495	+$245.1
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.2¢	$237.68	—	-$252.78
MO mo-money	Upavg 87.7¢	$474.48	$540.74	+$66.26	49% 1308-1342 (2650)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Upavg 89.6¢	$355.17	$313.49	-$41.68	52% 4918-4624 (9542)
└ Up leg	Upavg 89.6¢	$281.01	$313.49	+$32.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.8¢	$74.15	—	-$74.15
ST stepaheadARB<$100	Upavg 75.7¢	$291.49	$289.51	-$1.98	55% 4342-3564 (7906)
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.7¢	$219.12	$289.51	+$70.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$72.37	—	-$72.37
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 73.4¢	$244.18	$230.64	-$13.54	60% 975-657 (1632)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.4¢	$169.28	$230.64	+$61.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$74.91	—	-$74.91
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 83¢	$253.81	$241.57	-$12.23	44% 692-885 (1577)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83¢	$200.45	$241.57	+$41.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$53.35	—	-$53.35
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$242.32	$224.69	-$17.63	46% 738-878 (1616)
└ Up leg	Upavg 82.3¢	$184.92	$224.69	+$39.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.6¢	$57.4	—	-$57.4
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 90.4¢	$208.73	$185.94	-$22.78	31% 639-1422 (2061)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.4¢	$168.09	$185.94	+$17.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$40.64	—	-$40.64
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$0	52% 2111-1963 (4074)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$50	$100	+$50
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$50	—	-$50
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87.4¢	$73.32	$79.78	+$7.69	67% 3226-1609 (4835)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 86.4¢	$70.54	$70	-$0.54	51% 800-760 (1560)
└ Up leg	Upavg 86.4¢	$60.45	$70	+$9.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 11.5¢	$10.09	—	-$10.09
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 81.8¢	$72.61	$54.81	-$17.8	53% 4493-3921 (8414)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.8¢	$44.81	$54.81	+$10
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$27.8	—	-$27.8
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$49.83	$64.99	+$15.16	44% 1957-2530 (4487)
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 83.9¢	$127.2	$63	-$13.7	50% 4298-4377 (8675)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 78.3¢	$65.92	$67	+$3.05	63% 3817-2281 (6098)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 86.8¢	$42.9	$48.38	+$5.48	50% 3000-2949 (5949)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 70.9¢	$37.5	$40	+$2.5	47% 2034-2298 (4332)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 93.1¢	$44.58	$41	-$3.58	52% 2516-2359 (4875)

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$8,556

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$17.72

Record

55%

378-311 (689)

Both legs:

Up$3,843.9450¢+$4.1K

Down$3,879.150¢$-4.1K

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Invested

$5,000

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$51.19

Record

40%

220-334 (554)

Both legs:

Up$2,495.0150¢+$2.5K

Down$2,167.750¢$-2.4K

hoodquant

Invested

$954.85

Value

$967

PnL

+$12.15

Record

98%

3454-73 (3527)

bosona

Invested

$1,119.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$203.43

Record

51%

4575-4432 (9007)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Invested

$775.34

Value

$801.88

PnL

+$26.54

Record

46%

948-1109 (2057)

Both legs:

Up$652.5481.4¢+$149.34

Down$122.815.5¢-$122.8

machinelearned

Invested

$844.07

Value

$832.75

PnL

-$11.32

Record

46%

1010-1189 (2199)

almach

Invested

$895.84

Value

$833.39

PnL

+$63.1

Record

50%

1325-1312 (2637)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$583.26

Value

$495

PnL

-$7.68

Record

54%

3302-2813 (6115)

Both legs:

Up$267.8354.1¢+$245.1

Down$237.6846.2¢-$252.78

mo-money

Invested

$474.48

Value

$540.74

PnL

+$66.26

Record

49%

1308-1342 (2650)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$355.17

Value

$313.49

PnL

-$41.68

Record

52%

4918-4624 (9542)

Both legs:

Up$281.0189.6¢+$32.48

Down$74.1517.8¢-$74.15

stepaheadARB<$100

Invested

$291.49

Value

$289.51

PnL

-$1.98

Record

55%

4342-3564 (7906)

Both legs:

Up$219.1275.7¢+$70.39

Down$72.3727¢-$72.37

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$244.18

Value

$230.64

PnL

-$13.54

Record

60%

975-657 (1632)

Both legs:

Up$169.2873.4¢+$61.36

Down$74.9121¢-$74.91

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$253.81

Value

$241.57

PnL

-$12.23

Record

44%

692-885 (1577)

Both legs:

Up$200.4583¢+$41.12

Down$53.3517¢-$53.35

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$242.32

Value

$224.69

PnL

-$17.63

Record

46%

738-878 (1616)

Both legs:

Up$184.9282.3¢+$39.77

Down$57.420.6¢-$57.4

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$208.73

Value

$185.94

PnL

-$22.78

Record

31%

639-1422 (2061)

Both legs:

Up$168.0990.4¢+$17.86

Down$40.6424¢-$40.64

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$100

Value

$100

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2111-1963 (4074)

Both legs:

Up$5050¢+$50

Down$5050¢-$50

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$73.32

Value

$79.78

PnL

+$7.69

Record

67%

3226-1609 (4835)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$70.54

Value

$70

PnL

-$0.54

Record

51%

800-760 (1560)

Both legs:

Up$60.4586.4¢+$9.55

Down$10.0911.5¢-$10.09

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$72.61

Value

$54.81

PnL

-$17.8

Record

53%

4493-3921 (8414)

Both legs:

Up$44.8181.8¢+$10

Down$27.827¢-$27.8

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$49.83

Value

$64.99

PnL

+$15.16

Record

44%

1957-2530 (4487)

asdcaxz

Invested

$127.2

Value

$63

PnL

-$13.7

Record

50%

4298-4377 (8675)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$65.92

Value

$67

PnL

+$3.05

Record

63%

3817-2281 (6098)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$42.9

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$5.48

Record

50%

3000-2949 (5949)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$37.5

Value

$40

PnL

+$2.5

Record

47%

2034-2298 (4332)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$44.58

Value

$41

PnL

-$3.58

Record

52%

2516-2359 (4875)

Smart Money Signal

24 of 45 top traders (53%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%36 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x107794c6...fe07ee

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1794663600

Traders in this Market

0x18C18e0c8c3154360B4F730eC8B9D8013Ceb2183-1766020654989

Arbitrage — excluded

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $967

+$12.15

bosona

Up — $1.3K

+$203.43

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.54

machinelearned

Up — $832.75

-$11.32

almach

Up — $833.39

+$63.1

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.68

mo-money

Up — $540.74

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded